000
FXUS61 KOKX 071957
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue building over the area tonight and
then remain in control through Tuesday. A backdoor cold front
moves across Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A complex frontal
system approaches Wednesday. The associated warm front lifts
through Wednesday night with its cold front moving through to
end the week. High pressure builds in for the upcoming weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Large offshore cyclone will continue moving away from New
England through tonight. As a result, upper ridging settles
over the northeast with high pressure at the surface. Lingering
stratocu, mainly over Long Island and Southern Connecticut could
persist to start the evening. However, the moisture around 5
kft will diminish which will lead to mostly clear skies tonight.
Another chilly night is in store with lows in the lower to
middle 30s inland and Long Island Pine Barrens, with upper 30s
and low 40s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The upper level ridging and surface high pressure will remain in
place on Monday. Another large upper level cyclone and associated
low pressure will be situated over the Northern Plains. The models
have indicated some shearing out vort energy aloft that will move
along the periphery of the ridge axis. The subsidence from the ridge
will prevent any substantial lift, but the models have been
signaling a band of high cirrus clouds in the afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings support these clouds being thin and more than
likely will not impact sky conditions too much. The latest thinking
is that mainly partly cloudy skies will occur in the afternoon
during the partial solar eclipse.
High temperatures should be able to reach above normal levels with
much of the area in the lower 60s in the afternoon. The NYC metro
and urban NE NJ likely reaches the middle 60s. Eastern Long Island
may end up slightly cooler in the upper 50s. While the core of
the surface high shifts over the southeast, surface ridging will
extend northward into southeast Canada. Winds will be lighter
than recent days and should WSW-W, which also supports
temperatures reaching above normal levels.
The shearing vort energy continues to push east Monday night.
Clouds may lower and thicken a bit based on a slightly deeper layer
of moisture on forecast soundings. These clouds should start
diminishing towards day break Tuesday. Lows will be milder and in
the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The synoptic pattern goes from quasi-zonal Tue through Wed night
to highly amplified meridional Thu through Fri night. The
pattern switches to amplified NW Saturday into Saturday night
before returning to quasi-zonal next Sunday.
At the surface, a back door cold front moves through from the north
and east Tuesday into Tuesday night. Center of high pressure moves
near to just south of Nova Scotia during this time period. Then the
front weakens and eventually returns moving back to the northeast
moving across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Weather
remains dry Tuesday but then chances for rain increase Tuesday night
into Wednesday with the frontal boundary within the area. Rain
chances continue Wednesday into Wednesday night becoming likely
within this time period for much of the area. Not much rain is
expected with these feature as forcing will be relatively weak.
The warm front moves northeast of the region Thursday into Thursday
night. For Thursday night, an associated strong cold front
approaches the region, eventually moving across sometime early
Friday. There is some model uncertainty regarding the timing of the
front passage but less model solutions were showing around 24 hours
ago.
Strong low level jet Thursday night with warm air advection will be
followed by cold air advection behind the front Friday into Friday
night. Elevated instability, higher PWATS potentially up to near 1.3
inches Thursday and potentially up to 1.5 inches Thursday night will
lead to slight possibility of thunderstorms and possible heavy rain
at times as well. See hydrology sections for more details with
regards to the rain.
There is forecast to be gusty winds especially Thursday night into
Friday. While gusts in the forecast are up to mainly the 30 to 40
mph range, some higher gusts will be possible. Some 50 mph wind
gusts will be possible especially with any thunderstorms that
develop. The models are signaling some strong dynamics with the cold
front approaching and moving across.
For next weekend, mainly dry conditions are expected. Low pressure
and the front will be departing well to the north and east of the
region. High pressure will gradually build in from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west through Monday.
VFR.
N flow around 10-15 kt gusting to 20-28 kt through around 21-22z
this evening. Winds diminish tonight becoming light and variable
overnight as the high builds over. Winds then become WNW into early
Monday morning at around 10kt or less, shifting W-SW by Monday
afternoon.
Cigs remain near 5 kft through tonight, briefly clearing tonight
before a high deck develops on Monday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional at times.
End time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. WNW flow up to 10 kt.
Wednesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers. E winds G15-20kt.
Thursday-Friday: MVFR or lower with showers likely. SE winds
G25-30kt. LLWS possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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High pressure will lead to a weak pressure gradient with winds
and waves below SCA levels through Monday night.
A relatively weak pressure gradient Tuesday through Wednesday night
becomes much tighter Thursday through Friday night. The largest
gradient appears in the models to be within the Thursday night into
Friday timeframe. Below SCA conditions forecast on all waters
Tuesday through Wednesday night. Conditions forecast to become more
rough Thursday with SCA conditions for gusts becoming more likely on
all waters.
HWO mentions about the possibility for gales on all waters Thursday
night and Friday. Last 3 forecasts have shown gale force wind gusts
within this time period with minimum gusts forecast at 30 kt. This
will be a time period where there is forecast to be a strong cold
front moving across around early Friday.
SCA gusts likely continue Friday night for all waters.
Ocean seas remain at SCA levels in the forecast Thursday through
Friday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through Wednesday night.
There is a marginal flood threat with the rain Thursday through
Thursday night. Minor flooding will be possible for poor drainage
and low lying areas. Beyond this is difficult to state with the
amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts and the progressive
nature of the cold front which may really limit the higher rainfall
totals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
More widespread minor flooding likely in these vulnerable spots
with this eve/tonight high tide (and isolated minor elsewhere),
as tidal departures needed for minor drop as low as 1/4 ft, and
Ekman effects from the offshore low increase water levels along
the entire coast.
Another round of localized minor coastal flooding is likely
Monday morning and have issued a statement for the back bays of
southern Nassau and southern Queens. More widespread minor
flooding is likely Monday evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Monday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ178-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...20
MARINE...JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JM/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...