000
FXUS61 KOKX 080035
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
835 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue building over the area tonight and
remain in control through Tuesday. A back door cold front will
move across from Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A complex
frontal system will approach Wednesday. The associated warm
front will lift through Wednesday night, with its cold front
moving through to end the week. High pressure will build in for
the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Increased clouds for eastern sections per latest IR satellite
trends. Also, adjusted surface winds as well as temperatures and
dewpoints to better match observed trends. An evening sea breeze
has moved in for parts of the coast. Overall expecting winds to
lighten and become more variable going into mid to late evening.
As a large offshore cyclone continues moving away from New
England, upper ridging will settle over the Northeast, with high
pressure at the surface. Lingering stratocu mainly over eastern
Long Island and SE CT will be present to start the evening.
However, the moisture around 5 kft will diminish which will lead
to mostly clear skies later tonight.
Another chilly night is in store with lows in the lower/mid 30s
inland and across the Long Island Pine Barrens, with upper
30s/lower 40s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The upper level ridging and surface high will remain in place
on Monday. Another large upper level cyclone and associated low
pressure will be situated over the Northern Plains. The models
have indicated some shearing out vort energy aloft that will
move along the periphery of the ridge axis. The subsidence from
the ridge will prevent any substantial lift, but the models have
been signaling a band of high cirrus clouds in the afternoon
and evening. Forecast soundings support these clouds being thin
and more than likely will not impact sky conditions too much
until late afternoon. The latest thinking is that mainly partly
cloudy skies will occur in the afternoon during the partial
solar eclipse.
High temperatures should be able to reach above normal levels
with much of the area in the lower 60s in the afternoon. The
NYC metro and urban NE NJ likely reaches the mid 60s.
Eastern Long Island may end up slightly cooler, in the upper
50s. While the core of the surface high shifts over the
Southeast, surface ridging will extend northward into southeast
Canada. Winds will be lighter than recent days and should be
WSW-W, which also supports temperatures reaching above
normal levels.
The shearing vort energy continues to push east Monday night.
Clouds may lower and thicken a bit based on a slightly deeper
layer of moisture on forecast soundings. These clouds should
start diminishing toward daybreak Tuesday. Lows will be milder
and in the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The synoptic pattern goes from quasi-zonal Tue through Wed night
to highly amplified meridional Thu through Fri night. The
pattern switches to amplified NW Saturday into Saturday night
before returning to quasi-zonal next Sunday.
At the surface, a back door cold front moves through from the
north and east Tuesday into Tuesday night. Center of high
pressure moves near to just south of Nova Scotia during this
time period. Then the front weakens and eventually returns
moving back to the northeast moving across the area Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Weather remains dry Tuesday but then
chances for rain increase Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
frontal boundary within the area. Rain chances continue
Wednesday into Wednesday night with rain becoming likely within
this time period for much of the area. Not much rain is expected
as forcing will be relatively weak.
The warm front moves northeast of the region Thursday into
Thursday night. For Thursday night, an associated strong cold
front approaches the region, eventually moving across sometime
early Friday. There is some model uncertainty regarding the
timing of the front passage but less differences than what model
solutions were showing around 24 hours ago.
Strong low level jet Thursday night with warm air advection will
be followed by cold air advection behind the front Friday into
Friday night. Elevated instability, higher PWATS potentially up
to near 1.3 inches Thursday and potentially up to 1.5 inches
Thursday night will lead to slight possibility of thunderstorms
and possible heavy rain at times as well. See hydrology sections
for more details with regards to the rain.
Winds should be gusty especially Thursday night into Friday.
While gusts in the forecast are up to mainly the 30-40 mph
range, some higher gusts will be possible. Some 50 mph wind
gusts will be possible especially with any thunderstorms that
develop. The models are signaling some strong dynamics with the
cold front approaching and moving across.
For next weekend, mainly dry conditions are expected. Low
pressure and the front will be departing well to the north and
east of the region. High pressure will gradually build in from
the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure builds from the west.
Late sea breezes are in at KJFK/KLGA/KBDR/KISP/KEWR and should
persist early this evening, then gradually veer through SW-W and
become light NW overnight. Light N-NE flow elsewhere should
become light/vrb overnight.
Winds Mon afternoon become SW close to 10 kt, backing more
southerly at KJFK/KLGA after 18Z/20Z respectively.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night and Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers. E winds
G15-20kt.
Thursday and Friday: MVFR or lower with showers likely. SE winds
G25-30kt. LLWS possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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High pressure will lead to a weak pressure gradient with winds
and sea below SCA levels through Monday night.
A relatively weak pressure gradient Tuesday through Wednesday
night becomes much tighter Thursday through Friday night.
The largest gradient appears in the models to be within the
Thursday night into Friday timeframe. Below SCA conditions
forecast on all waters Tuesday through Wednesday night.
Conditions forecast to become more rough Thursday with SCA
conditions for gusts becoming more likely on all waters.
HWO mentions possible gales on all waters Thursday night and
Friday. Last 3 forecasts have shown gale force wind gusts
within this time period with minimum gusts forecast at 30 kt.
This will be a time period where there is forecast to be a
strong cold front, which is forecast to move across around early
Friday.
SCA gusts likely continue Friday night for all waters.
Ocean seas remain above 5 ft Thursday through Friday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There is a marginal flood threat with the rain Thursday through
Thursday night. Minor flooding will be possible for poor
drainage and low lying areas. Beyond this is difficult to state
with the amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts and
the progressive nature of the cold front which may limit the
higher rainfall totals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical high tides associated with with Monday`s new moon
will be rising over the next few high tide cycles.
More widespread minor flooding likely in vulnerable spots with
tonight`s high tide, as tidal departures needed for minor drop
as low as 1/4 ft, and Ekman effects from the offshore low
increase water levels along the entire coast.
Another round of localized minor coastal flooding is likely
Monday morning and have issued a statement for the back bays
of southern Nassau and southern Queens. More widespread minor
flooding is likely Monday evening.
Minor flooding remains possible for the night time high tide
cycles Tuesday and Wednesday mainly for parts of lower NY
Harbor, the Long Island South Shore Bays and along western
Island Sound.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ178-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DS
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JM/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...