000
FXUS61 KOKX 081700
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
100 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area today, then gradually
shifts offshore through Tuesday. A back door cold front slides
down from the north and northeast late Tuesday and Tuesday
night, and remains nearby as a stationary front into Wednesday.
The associated warm front lifts through Wednesday night and its
cold front on Friday. A series of weak cold fronts will move
through Saturday, with high pressure building to end the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with little change to the forecast.
Satellite continues to show mostly clear skies with just some
high clouds starting to stream in from the west. Upper level
clouds are expected to continue to move into the area as
indicated on the BUFKIT soundings. Thus, expected some filtered
sun into the afternoon, especially for the western half of the
area towards Eclipse time. Cloud height will be around 20kft
during the time of the Eclipse, thus not an obstructed view but
the clouds could very well filter out the view a bit. Further
east across the area the expectation is for less in the way of
filtered sun.
With high pressure essentially over the area the synoptic flow
will be much lighter than it has been as of late. This should
allow a sea breeze to develop towards mid day for the southern
coastal sections, and a couple of hours later into the afternoon
for the remainder of the area with the exception perhaps of far
interior sections until later in the day. This is where
temperatures should get into the lower and perhaps middle 60s,
with more like 50s further east and along the coast. Temperatures
should cool quickly from south to north during the late afternoon
and evening with more of a southerly / onshore component to the
wind resulting in the low level advection of much cooler air
off the ocean.
For tonight the winds will remain light with high pressure remaining
nearby. The higher level clouds will be more of a mid deck around or
just below 10kft. As clouds lower late tonight, they should begin to
dissipate. It will remain dry underneath partly cloudy skies.
Temperatures should be a touch above normal with lows in the middle
40s to around 50 for the most part.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With deep layer ridging remaining in place the stretch of dry
weather continues. A good amount of sun will be in place, with
perhaps more in the way of high clouds late in the day and
towards evening as a cold front approaches from the north and
northeast towards evening and a weakening warm front pushes
closer from the southwest. A repeat of a developing onshore flow
should take place for the afternoon with the synoptic pressure
gradient remaining relatively weak. A warmer air mass works in
from the west and southwest as 5kft temps warm to 8-9 C later in
the day. This should get temperatures off to a running start
throughout the morning quickly climbing through the upper 50s
and 60s. For the afternoon interior places to the north and
northwest will have a window for a few hours to get to the lower
and middle 70s. An onshore flow later in the day should
initiate a sea breeze with temperatures falling through the 60s,
and then the 50s and 40s during the evening for coastal
sections. Clouds will be thickening Tuesday night as PoPs get
introduced with slight chance increasing to chance as the night
progresses. Any lift would be weak, thus any rain would be
rather light as there should remain some relatively drier layers
in the profile for a good portion of the night. Temperatures
will once again run above normal for Tuesday night with lows in
the 40s to around 50.
As the ridge breaks down for mid week and a developing upper
trough draws closer look for a good deal of cloud cover out
ahead of a warm front. Any lift should be relatively weak, and
thus carrying chance PoPs with light rain showers. With a good
deal of cloud cover due to overrunning and more of an easterly
onshore flow temperatures will be noticeably cooler.
Temperatures will therefore be closer to normal with mostly
middle 50s to around 60, with lower 50s for eastern and southern
coastal sections.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models in good agreement with a northern stream shortwave and a
southern stream closed low gradually phasing into a deep trough
over the central US midweek, pivoting through the northeastern
US late week into the weekend. At the surface, southern low
pressure will track NE through the mid-Mississippi River Valley,
Ohio Valley, and eastern Great Lakes while strengthening Wed
Night through Friday.
Its associated warm front approaches Wed night with rain
becoming likely. The warm front likely moves northeast of the
region Thu/Thu Eve as southerly low level jet strengthens. Deep
layered lift of a subtropical/gulf moisture feed (PWATS of +2-3
std), with potentially a bit of instability, should lead to a
period of heavy rain and possible embedded thunderstorms Thu
Night into Fri AM ahead of approaching cold front. NBM
indicating moderate ensemble probability of 1"+ in 24 hrs
(60-70% of members), with low ensemble prob of 2"+ in 24 hrs
(20-30% of members). The mitigating factor for heavier rainfall
amounts appears to be the quick progression of the cold front,
characterized by the low ensemble prob of 1"+ in 12hr (20-30% of
members) at this time. Low predictability on high end of
rainfall potential at this Day 4 timeframe. Once cold front
passes through Fri Am, scattered instability shower likely to
continue Fri aft/eve as trough/closing upper low passes
overhead. See hydrology sections for potential rainfall impact
details.
In addition to the heavy rain, winds gusts in the 30 to 40 mph
range likely Thursday night along the coast ahead of the front.
Signal for a 60-70kt S llj along the coast Thu Night ahead of
cold front, but as typical for this time of year with cold ocean
waters, a strong low-level inversion will likely limit mixing
potential outside of convective processes or gravity waves.
Widespread 35 to 45 mph likely Friday in wake of cold front with
better mixing, with at least a low potential for 50 mph wind
gusts.
For the weekend, mainly dry conditions are expected. Low
pressure and the front will be departing well to the north and
east of the region. High pressure will gradually build in from
the west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds in from the west, and centers to
the south.
Light W/NW winds for the morning push, becoming SW around 10 kt
in the late morning/early afternoon, giving way to S/SSW
seabreeze for south coastal terminals btwn 18-20Z for aft/eve
push. Winds becoming light S/SW tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Seabreeze timing may be off by an hour or so. S seabreeze
between 18z and 20z likely for JFK/LGA. S seabreeze possible
for TEB aft 20z. Low prob for SE seabreeze at KEWR after 20z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: VFR. Light W/SW winds, giving way to
Tue aft/eve SE G15-20kt windshift, continuing Tue Night.
Wednesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers. E winds
G15-20kt.
Thursday and Friday: MVFR or lower with showers. Tstm possible.
SE to SW winds G25-35kt. LLWS possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure nearby leads to a weak pressure gradient which results
in light winds and fairly low seas. Sub small craft conditions
should take place right through Wednesday.
Gale conditions likely on all waters Thursday night thru Friday with
strong frontal system passing through, gradually improving to SCA
conds Friday night into Sat.
Ocean seas likely build to 10 to 15 ft Thu Night into Fri, gradually
subsiding through the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday night.
Minor urban, poor drainage and flashy riverine flooding looks to be
primary threat with strong frontal system late Thu into Fri Am, with
a 1 to 2" rainfall in 24 hrs likely.
Progressive nature of the cold front should limit potential for
widespread 3"+ in 24 hr rainfall totals, but low predictability at 4
days out and mesoscale details yet to be resolved by high-res
models.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Another round of widespread minor flooding likely for vulnerable
locales along Newark Bay and tidal rivers, southern Nassau and
Queens, and coastal Westchester/Fairfield with tonight`s high tide.
Additional rounds of minor flooding appear likely through mid week
for the same areas, as tidal departures needed for minor drop as low
as 1/4 ft thru Wed eve high tide.
Strengthening SE/S flow with a storm system Thu into Friday may
force more widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Tuesday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/NV
NEAR TERM...BC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JE/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...