000
FXUS61 KOKX 082112
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
512 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area gradually shifts offshore tonight and
Tuesday. A back door cold front slides down from the north and
northeast late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A stationary front
lingers over the area Wednesday. A warm front lifts through
Wednesday night and its cold front on Friday. A series of weak
cold fronts will move through Saturday, with high pressure
building to end the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers to our west have held together and are now moving into
the CWA. POPs have been raised in this update through early
tonight as CAMs have shower chances lingering until then.
However, dewpoint depressions are very large, so whatever does
reach the ground will be light or just sprinkles. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track.
High pressure remains nearby as it slowly slides off to the east.
Winds will remain light. Still expecting mid and high level clouds
for much of the night, before clearing begins after midnight.
Temperatures will fall into the middle 40s to around 50.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather continues on Tuesday with deep layer ridging continuing.
Expect a good amount of sun on Tuesday with clouds increasing once
again late in the day. A back door cold front approaches from the
north and northeast during the day.
Another day of onshore flow is expected with the synoptic gradient
remaining relatively weak. A warmer air mass works in from the west
and southwest as 5kft temps warm to 8-9 C later in the day. Highs
across the interior are expected to climb into the lower and middle
70s. An onshore flow later in the day should initiate a sea breeze
with temperatures falling through the 60s, and then the 50s and 40s
during the evening for coastal sections. Clouds will be thickening
Tuesday night as PoPs get introduced with slight chance increasing
to chance as the night progresses. Any lift would be weak, thus any
rain would be rather light as there should remain some relatively
drier layers in the profile for a good portion of the night.
Temperatures will once again run above normal for Tuesday night with
lows in the 40s to around 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A small wave will develop along and track across a stationary front
over the area Wednesday morning and afternoon providing a quick
round of showers. Rain will be light given a lack of any significant
forcing, being under the right exit of a jet streak. Highs will
be in the mid/upper-50s with plenty of cloud cover.
A northern stream shortwave and a southern stream closed low will
gradually phase into a deep trough over the central US midweek,
pivoting through the northeastern US late week into the weekend. At
the surface, southern low pressure will track NE through the mid-
Mississippi River Valley, Ohio Valley, and eastern Great Lakes while
strengthening Wed Night through Friday.
Its associated warm front approaches early Thursday morning with
rain becoming likely by Thursday afternoon. The warm front likely
moves northeast of the region Thu/Thu Eve as southerly low level jet
strengthens. Deep layered lift of a subtropical/gulf moisture feeds
PWATs around 1.3-1.5" Thursday evening into Friday morning. This is
above the max moving average given the time of year via SPC`s
Sounding Climatology. Some instability is expected and may lead to a
embedded thunderstorms Thu Night into Fri AM ahead of approaching
cold front. NBM indicating moderate ensemble probability of 1"+ in
24 hrs (60% of members), with low ensemble prob of 2"+ in 24 hrs
(20% of members). The cold front will progress quickly which should
keep the window for heavier rainfall brief. SPotty to scattered
showers may continue after the frontal passage Friday morning for
Friday afternoon and evening as a trough/closing upper low passes
overhead. See hydrology sections for potential rainfall impact
details.
In addition to the heavy rain, winds gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range
likely Thursday night along the coast ahead of the front. Signal for
a 60-70kt LLJ along the coast Thu Night ahead of cold front, but as
typical for this time of year with cold ocean waters, a strong low-
level inversion will likely limit mixing potential outside of
convective processes or gravity waves. Widespread 35 to 45 mph
likely Friday in wake of cold front with better mixing, with at
least a low potential for 50 mph wind gusts.
For the weekend, mainly dry conditions are expected. A Deep trough
on Saturday will become zonal on Sunday. Low pressure and the front
will be departing well to the north and east of the region. High
pressure will gradually build in from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure will remain across the area through tonight,
and then moves offshore on Tuesday. A back door cold front
approaches from the east Tuesday afternoon.
VFR. Lowering mid and high level clouds through tonight.
Winds will become SW at less than 10 kt this afternoon, but
more southerly at the coastal terminals due to the seabreeze.
Seabreeze locations may increase to 10-15kt. KEWR may see winds
briefly from the SSE (150-160) at less than 10 kt. Winds become
light S/SW this evening and then light and variable overnight
into Tuesday morning. Seabreeze development Tuesday may be as
early as 14-15Z along the CT coast. KLGA likely starts off with
a NE wind around 5 kt off the East River. All terminals become
southerly Tuesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Seabreeze likely reaches KLGA and KTEB by 21Z. Low prob for SE
seabreeze at KEWR after 20z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Afternoon and Night: VFR. E/SE winds 5-10kt. Chance of
MVFR in showers late.
Wednesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers. E winds
G15-20kt.
Thursday and Friday: MVFR or lower with showers. Tstm possible.
SE to SW winds G25-35kt. LLWS possible.
Saturday: W winds 15-20 G20-20kt. Slight chance of showers,
mainly NW of the NYC terminals.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure nearby leads to a weak pressure gradient which results
in light winds and fairly low seas. Sub small craft conditions
should take place through Wednesday.
Gale conditions likely on all waters Thursday night thru Friday
afternoon with a strong frontal system passing through, gradually
improving to SCA conds Friday night into Sat.
Ocean seas likely build to 10 to 15 ft Thu Night into Fri, gradually
subsiding through the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday night.
Minor urban, poor drainage and flashy riverine flooding looks to be
primary threat with strong frontal system late Thu into Fri Am, with
a 1 to 2" rainfall in 24 hrs likely.
Progressive nature of the cold front should limit potential for
widespread 3"+ in 24 hr rainfall totals, but low predictability at 4
days out and mesoscale details yet to be resolved by high-res models..
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Another round of widespread minor flooding likely for vulnerable
locales along Newark Bay and tidal rivers, southern Nassau and
Queens, and coastal Westchester/Fairfield with tonight`s high tide.
Additional rounds of minor flooding appear likely through mid week
for the same areas, as tidal departures needed for minor drop as low
as 1/4 ft thru Wed eve high tide.
Strengthening SE/S flow with a storm system Thu into Friday may
force more widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
104-106-108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BR
NEAR TERM...BC/BR
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/BR
HYDROLOGY...BC/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...