000
FXUS61 KOKX 090016
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
816 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the area will gradually shift offshore
through and Tuesday. A back door cold front will slide down from
the northeast late Tuesday and Tuesday night, linger just south
of the area on Wednesday, then lift through Wednesday night. A
cold front will move through on Friday. A series of weak cold
fronts will then move through on Saturday, with high pressure
building to end the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Only seeing isolated showers at most to the west, and will
continue this until around midnight. Dewpoint depressions are
very large, so whatever does reach the ground will be light or
just sprinkles. Temperatures and dewpoints were adjusted
slightly to account for current observations.
High pressure remains nearby as it slowly slides off to the
east. Winds will remain light. Still expecting mid and high
level clouds for much of the night, before clearing begins late.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s to around 50.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry weather continues on Tuesday with deep layer ridging
continuing.
Expect a good amount of sun on Tuesday with clouds increasing
once again late in the day. A back door cold front approaches
from the north and northeast during the day.
Another day of onshore flow is expected with the synoptic
gradient remaining relatively weak. A warmer air mass works in
from the west and southwest as 5kft temps warm to 8-9 C later
in the day. Highs across the interior are expected to climb into
the lower and middle 70s. An onshore flow later in the day
should initiate a sea breeze with temperatures falling through
the 60s, and then the 50s and 40s during the evening for coastal
sections. Clouds will be thickening Tuesday night as PoPs get
introduced with slight chance increasing to chance as the night
progresses. Any lift would be weak, thus any rain would be
rather light as there should remain some relatively drier layers
in the profile for a good portion of the night. Temperatures
will once again run above normal for Tuesday night with lows in
the 40s to around 50.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A small wave will develop along and track across a stationary
front over the area Wednesday morning and afternoon providing
a quick round of showers. Rain will be light given a lack of any
significant forcing, being under the right exit of a jet
streak. Highs will be in the mid/upper-50s with plenty of cloud
cover.
A northern stream shortwave and a southern stream closed low
will gradually phase into a deep trough over the central US
midweek, pivoting through the northeastern US late week into the
weekend. At the surface, southern low pressure will track NE
through the mid- Mississippi River Valley, Ohio Valley, and
eastern Great Lakes while strengthening Wed Night through
Friday.
Its associated warm front approaches early Thursday morning with
rain becoming likely by Thursday afternoon. The warm front
likely moves northeast of the region Thu/Thu Eve as southerly
low level jet strengthens. Deep layered lift of a
subtropical/gulf moisture feeds PWATs around 1.3-1.5" Thursday
evening into Friday morning. This is above the max moving
average given the time of year via SPC`s Sounding Climatology.
Some instability is expected and may lead to a embedded
thunderstorms Thu night into Fri AM ahead of approaching cold
front. NBM indicating moderate ensemble probability of 1"+ in 24
hrs (60% of members), with low ensemble prob of 2"+ in 24 hrs
(20% of members). The cold front will progress quickly which
should keep the window for heavier rainfall brief. SPotty to
scattered showers may continue after the frontal passage Friday
morning for Friday afternoon and evening as a trough/closing
upper low passes overhead. See hydrology sections for potential
rainfall impact details.
In addition to the heavy rain, winds gusts in the 30-40 mph
range likely Thursday night along the coast ahead of the front.
Signal for a 60-70 kt LLJ along the coast Thu night ahead of
cold front, but as typical for this time of year with cold ocean
waters, a strong low level inversion will likely limit mixing
potential outside of convective processes or gravity waves.
Widespread 35-45 mph likely Friday in wake of cold front with
better mixing, with at least a low potential for 50 mph wind
gusts.
For the weekend, mainly dry conditions are expected. Deep upper
troughing on Saturday will transition to zonal flow aloft on
Sunday. Low pressure and the front will be departing well to
the north and east of the region. High pressure will gradually
build in from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weak high pressure will remain across the area through tonight,
and then move offshore on Tuesday. A back door cold front will
approach from the northeast Tuesday afternoon.
VFR. Lowering mid and high level clouds through tonight.
Light S-SW winds will back more to the SW-WSW overnight. Sea
breeze development Tuesday may be as early as 14Z-15Z along
the CT coast. A NE sound breeze should develop at KLGA by about
14Z and continue until 20Z. All terminals become SE-S in the
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR. E-SE winds 5-10kt. Chance of showers/MVFR
cond late.
Wednesday: Chance of showers/MVFR cond. E winds G15-20kt.
Thursday and Friday: Showers with MVFR or lower cond. Tstms
possible. SE to SW winds G25-35kt. LLWS possible.
Saturday: Mainly VFR with only slight chance of showers mainly
NW of the NYC metros. W winds 15-20 kt with G20-30kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Nearby high pressure has led to a weak pressure gradient, with
light winds and fairly low seas. Sub-SCA cond should take place
through Wed.
Gales are likely on all waters Thu night into Fri afternoon with
a strong frontal system passing through, gradually improving
to SCA cond Fri night into Sat.
Ocean seas likely build to 10-15 ft Thu night into Fri,
gradually subsiding through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Minor urban, poor drainage and flashy small stream/river
flooding look to be primary threats with a strong frontal system
late Thu into Fri AM, with a 1-2 inch rainfall in 24 hrs
likely.
Progressive nature of the system should limit potential for
widespread 3+ inches, but low predictability at 4 days out and
mesoscale details yet to be resolved by high-res models.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Another round of widespread minor flooding likely for vulnerable
locales along Newark Bay and tidal rivers, southern Nassau and
Queens, and coastal Westchester/Fairfield with tonight`s high
tide.
Additional rounds of minor flooding appear likely through mid
week for the same areas, as tidal departures needed for minor
drop as low as 1/4 ft thru Wed eve high tide.
Strengthening SE-S flow with a storm system Thu into Friday may
force more widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
104-106-108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BR
NEAR TERM...BC/BR
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BC/BR
HYDROLOGY...BC/BR