000
FXUS61 KOKX 100825
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
425 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary boundary will remain nearby through tonight and then
lift north as a warm front on Thursday. A strong low pressure system
lifts west of the area and lifts a complex frontal boundary through
Thursday night into Friday morning. A series of cold fronts will
follow into the early part of the weekend. High pressure will
then briefly nose in from the south into Sunday. Another frontal
system could move through on Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weak mid level shortwave passes through or just south of the area
this morning. This may trigger a few showers across the area. With
forcing weak and pockets of relatively dry layers in the profile any
shower activity is expected to be rather light. For this afternoon
and this evening higher res guidance including HREF shows little in
terms of QPF. In all likelihood it will be dry much of the time this
afternoon and into this evening. Low end chance to slight chance
PoPs should suffice for this time period. Later tonight with height
falls ensuing and the frontal boundary just south of the area
beginning to inch north closer to daybreak, look for a relatively
higher chance of light shower activity late in the overnight / early
Thu AM.  Any precip will be light during this period with both
instances on the order of a few hundreths. With the cloud cover and
an onshore wind out of the east today look for temperatures to be a
couple of degrees below normal on average. For the same reasons
temperatures tonight will be above normal by about 5 degrees or so.
As the front begins to nudge north late at night some patchy fog may
form, possibly areas of fog towards daybreak.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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The stationary boundary in place lifts north as a warm front
Thursday morning. The higher res guidance is indicating some showers
along and just ahead of the boundary, especially for western
sections. Thus, chance to likely showers for Thursday morning,
followed by a period of more overcast and predominantly dry
conditions during the remainder of the day on Thursday as BUFKIT
soundings indicate some mid level drying. With a wind mainly out of
the south and a marine influence for a good 2/3rds of the area, the
atmosphere down low should be relatively stable, with some elevated
instability aloft as the area gets increasingly in the warm sector
throughout the day. Due to cloud cover temperatures should be close
to normal, even a few degrees below normal further east due to a
wind off the colder ocean. Further west temperatures should get into
the 60s, and if some sun can break through it would get even warmer
but current thinking maintains cloud cover.

The ECMWF and NAEFS SATs (Situational Awareness Tables) indicate an
anomalously high plume of moisture working in from the south Thursday
night. At 850 mb there are 3 to 4 Standardized Anomalies with
respect to specific humidity / moisture values, and 3 Standardized
Anomalies with respect to PWATs. PWAT values are expected to get to
around 1.5 inches Thursday night. The NAM and GFS continue to
indicate a 70 kt LLJ centered around the 2z to 12z timeframe, with a
subtle timing difference between the two. As usual the NAM and GFS
differ on inversion height and strength, which will be the deciding
factor as to how much momentum can get down to the surface in terms
of peak winds / wind gusts. Forecast wind gusts currently fall just
below wind advisory criteria for all zones, although confidence in
the wind / wind gust is below average due to uncertainty around
inversion on how far down momentum transfer goes. Subsequent
forecast packages may adjust this. Strong forcing will be in place
with PVA and WAA with the strong LLJ, look for these ingredients to
produce about a 9 hour period of moderate, to heavy rainfall at
times. Three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half of rain
is expected on average across the CWA. See the hydrology
sections for further details. Temperatures Thursday will average
near normal, perhaps a few degrees above for western most
sections. For Thursday night look for temperatures to average
well above normal with the surge of warmer air and higher
moisture moving up from the south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Currently forecasting peak gusts of up to 45 mph or thereabouts
early Friday morning along Long Island and other southern
coastal areas as the front swings through. Showers become
scattered and lighter Friday afternoon, then end for the most
part Friday evening and Friday night as the low exits to the
north with a second cold front on Saturday. Winds will remain
breezy through early Sat afternoon as the pressure gradient
gradually weakens. A deeper trough will center itself over the
region during this time frame, becoming zonal and weakening
Saturday into Sunday. At the same time, high pressure will
briefly nose in from the south leading to dry conditions
Saturday night through most of Sunday. Model guidance disagrees
on Monday, but will likely see the trough to our north begin to
drop with some mid-level energy swinging in on Monday which may
provide a chance for scattered showers on Monday along with a
cold front.

High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to the west and in the
mid 50s to the east on Thursday with temperatures more uniform
on Friday near 60. Saturday will be cooler in the 50s due to a
cold front then warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR with high pressure the rest of tonight.

Winds back SE-E tonight, then increase to near 10 kt daytime
Wed. MVFR cigs develop in the late morning/early afternoon and
then IFR, especially eastern terminals. There are indications
that MVFR or even IFR cigs could develop along the NJ coast late
tonight and expand northward to the NYC metros between 11Z-13Z,
so this will have to be watched closely.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR or even IFR cigs could arrive as early as 11Z-13Z. Low
confidence in this worst case scenario attm.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: IFR cond developing with chance of showers.

Thursday: IFR with chance of showers AM, then showers likely
with IFR/MVFR PM. SE winds G20-25kt.

Thursday night: IFR with showers. SE winds G30-35kt with LLWS.

Friday: IFR cond with showers and S winds G30-35kt AM. MVFR
with chance of showers PM and SW winds G30-35kt.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers mainly NW of the NYC
metros, otherwise VFR. W-NW winds G30-35kt.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers in the afternoon.
SW-W winds G25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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An easterly flow takes shape today with sustained winds generally
around 10 kt. Sub small craft conditions take place through tonight,
and into the first half of Thursday. Out ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary look for the winds and seas to increase Thursday
afternoon as small craft conditions develop. SSE gales are then
likely to develop Thursday evening and spread NE across the waters
Thursday night. Gusts of storm force out on the ocean cannot be
ruled out towards daybreak on Friday. Seas will build quickly
Thursday night with 10 to 15 ft ocean seas by Friday morning. Gales
conditions should give way to small craft conditions from west to
east Friday afternoon and evening on a SW wind. Small craft
conditions will linger through Saturday with a W wind.

SCA cond will likely linger on all waters through Saturday as
wind gusts remain around 25 kt. Sub-SCA conditions expected
thereafter, except on the ocean waters where 5-7 ft seas
could linger.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the day on Thursday. A
period of moderate to heavy rain is expected Thursday night, and
potentially lingering into a portion of Friday morning for eastern
sections. At this time the flooding risk from rainfall is limited
despite the fact that antecedent conditions remain rather wet. Due
to the progressive nature of the system it is likely that any
flooding would be more of the minor, nuisance and urban-poor
drainage variety. WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall across the 2/3rds of the CWA, with a slight risk into
western portions of the area (mainly west of NYC and the Hudson
River).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical high tides remain elevated with the new moon /
spring tide set up from early this week. Additional rounds of
minor flooding appear likely through mid to late week for the
same areas that experienced any coastal flooding from previous
high tide cycles, as tidal departures needed for minor drop as
low as 1/4 ft thru Wed eve high tide. Localized pockets of
moderate coastal flooding remains a possibility for the
western south shore back bays.

Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for tonight`s high
tide cycle for tidal NE NJ, S Queens/Nassau, and S
Fairfield/Westchester. Up to 1 to 1.5 ft of inundation above
ground level is expected in the most vulnerable locations near
the waterfront. Coastal Flood statements have also been issued
elsewhere except for the Bronx, NE Suffolk and S New London.

Strengthening SE-S flow with a storm system late Thursday into
Friday morning may force more widespread minor to moderate
coastal flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...