000
FXUS61 KOKX 121204
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
804 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front swings through for the first half of today as low
pressure lifts north into Eastern Canada. A series of surface
troughs will pivot through during the first half of the weekend.
A high pressure ridge briefly works in Saturday night into
Sunday morning. A weak wave of low pressure will drag a warm
front followed by a cold front through Sunday night into Monday
morning. High pressure takes over Monday, potentially followed
by a warm front front moving in late Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Going through daybreak heavier bands of brief locally heavy
downpours push through for eastern sections as some instability
has pushed into southern portions of the region. Lightning
strikes have been noted over Long Island and just to the south
over the ocean. Some stronger gusts could mix down with any
convective activity over the next few hours as the low level jet
core pushes through. Now through 6-7 am will be the period of
the strongest winds gusts. Thus leaving the wind advisory in
place.
A cold front pushes through eastern parts of the CWA by mid to late
morning, and thus any organized rain should get mainly east and
north by then. The winds will be rather gusty, but decrease some
from their peak earlier. For a 3 to 4 hour period the winds relax
some, but then pick up for the afternoon as a surface trough pivots
through. Gusts up to 35 mph are expected after the trough passage as
heights lower and more ideal mixing takes place across the area with
steeper lapse rates. With spokes of energy wrapping in behind the
departing low showers along with increasing frictional flow and
cyclonic curvature look for some showers to pivot through. With the
profile drying out in the lower levels any showers and drops that
can make it down to the ground would have some higher gusts perhaps
as an inverted V type profile attempts to set up. BUFKIT also hints
at a little mid level CAPE, thus cannot rule out some low end low
topped quasi-convective clusters. However, any activity would be
isolated to widely scattered and mainly over western and northern
sections. Despite a gusty SW flow providing cool air advection,
temperatures will average above normal today with mainly lower and
middle 60s for daytime maxes under varying amounts of cloud cover.
Some upper 50s are more likely for eastern coastal sections.
The strong SW flow continues despite the loss of daytime heating
tonight. The winds become more westerly gradually with time during
the night, and even more so with the passage of another surface
trough into early Saturday morning with falling dew points. Night
time minimum temperatures will fall into the middle 40s to around 50
in most places with the wind and variably cloudy skies preventing
any radiational cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Spokes of energy aloft along with the passage of an additional
surface trough will reinforce drier air at the surface and
eventually cooler air into the start of the weekend. The main upper
level trough pivots through early Saturday morning. With the
instability and cooler air aloft expect a self destruct sunshine
mechanism, with any breaks of sun and surface heating quickly
leading to a good deal of clouds with a strato-cumulus combination at
around 4 kft. Low end chance to slight chance PoPs for NW sections,
otherwise expect mainly dry and blustery conditions. The winds will
gust to around 35 mph across the CWA with good mixing with cold pool
aloft and pressure gradient still in place on the back side of low
pressure in Eastern Canada. Any showers may contain brief gusty
winds, but much of the time it should remain dry with more of a
classic V inverted profile. Much of the shower activity likely won`t
make it to the ground with more virga, than actual shower activity
perhaps. Temperatures for Saturday will be cooler as 850 mb temps
will be a bit below freezing. Temperatures will likely remain in the
50s all day across the entire CWA.
For Saturday night after the last surface trough passage the
pressure gradient will eventually weaken as low pressure gets well
north into Eastern Canada. So expect the winds to diminish into the
late evening and overnight hours. The winds will not completely shut
off, but most locations will have gusts end as the night progresses.
With less in the way of cloud cover look for temperatures to be
cooler, with night time lows mainly in the lower and middle 40s.
For Sunday the upper level flow becomes quasi-zonal with a high
pressure ridge at the surface nosing in from the south. The day
should be primarily dry, but clouds do increase in advance of a
frontal system to the west and north. The front will be moisture
starved, thus only chance to slight chance PoPs getting later in the
day and mainly across the interior. The winds will be out of the SW
ahead of the boundary, thus temperatures should get a bit warmer for
later in the weekend as most places get back into the 60s, with
perhaps portions of NE New Jersey pushing 70 as cloud cover may hold
off long enough during the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Chance PoPs preceding a cold front for Sunday night with a
chance of showers, along with perhaps some isolated thunder
with some elevated instability being indicated by NWP guidance.
A due north cold front will clear clouds and precip Monday
morning. The upper-level pattern remains zonal through Monday
before a strong ridge builds Tuesday into Wednesday. This will
lead to sunnier weather and temperatures warming into the
mid-70s to upper-60s, supported by warm air advection aloft.
The ridge remains in place on Tuesday, though a strong upper-level
jet develops aloft with a warm front placing itself over the area
from a low in the northern Great Plains/Western Great Lakes. These
will act together to increase cloud cover through the day on
Tuesday, but expected warmer temperatures to remain due to warm air
advection aloft. This warm front which eventually becomes a stalled
boundary will lead to rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strong low pressure near the eastern Great Lakes this morning
will lift slowly north cross eastern Canada today, while sending
a cold front across the area this morning.
Mainly IFR to LIFR this morning as the heaviest rain exits KGON
BY 14Z. There looks to be break in the action during most of
the morning push, but a threat of showers should return by
around 15z for a few hours. KGON may miss these showers per
latest CAMS, which passes to the NW. Improvement to MVFR late
this morning, then VFR this afternoon. Spotty showers will be
possible through the day.
S winds with gusts 25-35kt to start, highest at KGON, gusts
lower in speed thereafter but still around 30 kt. Gusts looks to
ramp up a bit this afternoon 30-35 kt and continue into
Saturday, veering to the west late tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for timing of improving categories and wind
gusts.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Chance of showers mainly NW of the NYC metros, mainly
VFR. W-NW winds G25-35kt.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers in the afternoon.
SW-W winds G20-25kt.
Mon and Tue: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas will be 10 to 15 ft out on the ocean today as gale force wind
gusts give way to small craft wind gusts from west to east during
the course of this afternoon and early this evening on a S to SW
wind. Small craft conditions will linger through Saturday with a W
wind with gusts mainly 25 to 30 kt, with occasional gusts to gale
force out on the ocean. Ocean seas during this time will settle
closer to 7 to 8 feet. More marginal small craft conditions are
anticipated across much of the waters into Saturday night. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected for most of Sunday with ocean seas mainly
around 4 ft, with ocean seas get nudged back up by Sunday evening as
a SW flow increases out ahead of a cold front. Sub small craft
conditions are then likely to end by Monday evening with lighter
winds and lowering seas into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist throughout the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-332-340-
345.
Gale Warning until noon EDT today for ANZ335-338.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE