000
FXUS61 KOKX 122013
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
413 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A series of surface troughs will pivot through during the first
half of the weekend. A high pressure ridge briefly works in
Saturday night into Sunday morning. A weak wave of low pressure
will drag a warm front followed by a cold front through Sunday
night into Monday morning. High pressure takes over Monday,
potentially followed by a warm front front moving in late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue into
the end of the week as low pressure passes near the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Surface low pressure over southeastern Canada will trek
northward tonight as the associated cut off upper low moves into
New England. A weak trough may provide some additional lift for
showers for western portions of the forecast area, mainly well
north and west of New York City for the first part of tonight.
As the surface trough moves through and weakens late tonight,
the chances for precipitation decreases, with just a slight
chance for the western half of the forecast area.

SW flow tonight should diminish and turn a bit more toward the
west, but gusts of 25 to 30 mph should still be possible given
strong cold air advection, which looks to become stronger on
Saturday. However, winds may shift a bit more toward the S later
tonight prior to the trough moving through, but then should
shift more toward the WSW toward daybreak.

The cold air advection should also allow lows tonight to drop
to the 40s region- wide.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Another surface trough or two look to move through Saturday
associated with the back edge of the broad surface low in
southern Canada. There may be some additional lift with the
upper level trough that will be moving through around the same
time as the surface trough. A somewhat organized, but weak area
of showers looks to move across the western half of the
forecast area in the morning into the early afternoon.

Winds will increase on Saturday, with gusts around 35 mph
across the forecast area with good mixing with cold pool aloft
and pressure gradient still in place on the back side of low
pressure in southeastern Canada. Any showers may contain brief
gusty winds, but much of the time it should remain dry with more
of a classic V inverted profile.

With a cooler air mass now in place, temperatures are expected
to be slightly below normal for Saturday, in the lower to middle
50s.

Dry condition expected Saturday night with a ridge of high
pressure moving into the region. Lows will be near to slightly
above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Sunday starts off with a high pressure ridge at the surface nosing
in from the south. The day should be primarily dry, but clouds do
increase in advance of a frontal system to the north and west. The
front will be moisture starved, thus only chance to slight chance
PoPs getting later in the day and mainly across the interior. A
southwest flow ahead of the front should allow temperatures across
the interior to climb into the middle and upper 60s to near 70.
Closer to the coast, highs will only reach the upper 50s and lower
60s.

Showers along with an a threat of an isolated rumble of thunder will
continue into Sunday night. A cold front pushes across the area from
the north late Sunday night, with high pressure building back into
the region in its wake. The high will remain in place through
Tuesday.

Another low pressure system and frontal system impacts the region
towards the middle and end of the week. A slow moving warm front
will lift  towards the area Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a
cold front on Friday. Will stick with just chance POPs for now.

Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Strong low pressure near the eastern Great Lakes will lift
slowly north cross eastern Canada through the TAF period.

MVFR/VFR is expected this evening with the wind flow becoming more
westerly and allowing some marginally drier air to push in from the
west. Light spotty showers are possible until sunset but limited
impacts at the terminals. On Saturday, low end VFR expected in
stratocumulus cloud cover/ceilings. Spotty showers still possible
Saturday mainly NW and W of the city terminals.

S-SW 15-25 kt winds with gusts 25-35kt becoming SW-W this
afternoon and continuing into Saturday. Winds mainly W at the
same speeds on Saturday gradually becoming W-NW.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible ceiling categories and minor changes in wind
direction and speed.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z Saturday: Chance of showers mainly NW of the NYC metros,
mainly VFR. W-NW winds G25-35kt.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers in the afternoon.
SW-W winds G20-25kt.

Mon through Wed: Mainly VFR. Slight chc of MVFR late Wed.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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SCA gusts are expected across all waters to start off the
tonight period. Winds will diminish through the night however,
and there may be a period of sub-SCA winds, but decided to keep
the SCA up as winds will increase once again towards daybreak
Saturday. Winds on the ocean look to increase to gale force once
again, so issued another Gale Warning for Saturday for these
waters, while all non-ocean waters will sea SCA gusts. Winds
diminish late in the day into Saturday night, falling below SCA
levels everywhere after midnight.

Waves on the ocean waters will diminish tonight to 5 to 10 ft,
remaining steady for Saturday as winds increase again, then
further diminish Saturday night, but remain above 5 ft through
the night. For the sound, wave are expected to remain below 5 ft
through tonight, then increase to 3 to 5 ft Saturday as winds
increase, then diminish to below 5 ft around midnight. The
extreme eastern sound may hang on to 5 ft seas a bit longer.

Small craft conditions will continue on Sunday as a SW flow
increases out ahead of a cold front. Conditions remain elevated
Sunday night and gradually diminish during the day Monday. Sub small
craft conditions are then likely Monday night with lighter winds and
lowering seas into the middle of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist throughout the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     335-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ338-350-
     353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ338-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP