000
FXUS61 KOKX 131035
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
635 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of low pressure encompassing eastern Canada and the
Northeast will lift north and east through tonight. High pressure
will then build across the area late tonight into Sunday morning.
A weak wave of low pressure will drag a warm front followed by a
cold front across the area Sunday night into Monday morning. High
pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday. A slow moving warm front
then approaches the area from the southwest Wednesday followed by
a cold front late in the week as low pressure passes well to the
northwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor adjustments were made this update to account for
latest observations and trends.
A large upper low encompassing the Northeast and eastern Canada
will lift north and east away from the area through tonight. However,
cyclonic flow and cold advection will allow for plenty of instability
clouds and scattered showers during the day. CAMs shows best chance
of showers across the Litchfield Hills of Western CT and eastern
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley due to a westerly upslope
flow. Elsewhere, expect sparse coverage. It will also be gusty
with west winds gusting 30 to 35 mph.
For tonight, winds will gradually subside as low pressure lifts
away and weak high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Skies will clear and lows will return to normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak ridging both aloft and at the surface will quickly move to
the east on Sunday as jet energy races across the Upper Great
Lakes and into the Northeast late in the day. At the surface,
weak low pressure passes to the NW will send a warm front through
the area Sunday evening, closely followed by a cold frontal
passage. Warm advection during the day may produce a few showers
inland, but the best chance will come in the evening into the
first half of the night as the frontal system interacts with
modest lift and marginal instability. While unidirectional wind
profiles feature 40-50kt of deep layer shear, the front is
coming through after peak heating, and any organized convection
approaching from the northwest will likely undergo weakening. At
this time, have a chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms. SPC does have areas north and west of the NYC
metro under a marginal risk of severe weather. The main threat
would be localized damaging winds. Confidence is low at this
time.
West winds ahead of the system on Sunday will back to the SW-S
and gusts 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. It will be mild with
highs generally in the 60s just inland of the coast, to around
70 for the NJ metro. The cold front then works across the area
from NW to SE, during the evening into early morning hours
Sunday night. Expect a mild night with lows 7 to 10 degrees
warmer than the previous night.
High pressure returns for Monday with continued mild conditions.
West winds should allow immediate coastal locations to even get
a bit warmer.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Key Messages*
*Unsettled conditions from mid to late week with daily shower
chances.
*A period of warmth with above normal temperatures expected Tuesday
through Thursday.
Not much change in the forecast thinking for this period and have
stuck close to the NBM with some adjustment for PoPs mid to late
week. Ensemble means in decent agreement with synoptic scale ridging
to start the period followed by a deamplification to a more zonal
flow by the end of the workweek.
As for the sensible weather, mainly dry conditions expected through
Wednesday AM, when a warm front attached to a deepening sfc low
across the country`s midsection approaches from the southwest by
afternoon. Shower chances increase through the day Wed as the front
slowly moves north, or stalls over the area. While PWATS look to be
over an inch, better forcing is found back to the west, so expecting
mainly light rain at this point. Area is then warm sectored
Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Global
ensemble mean soundings (per DESI) show a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE
with some marginal shear, so potential is there for a few
thunderstorms, and have reflected this with slight chance thunder
across north and western sections of the area Thu afternoon as the
cold front passes through.
Friday remains unsettled as another quick moving frontal system
impacts the area, with shower chances remaining.
Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the week. Tuesday
looks to be the warmest day under weak westerly flow, with only a
few degrees of spread in the NBM adding to forecast confidence in
low 70s for NYC and NE NJ with upper 60s elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds toward the terminals today.
VFR. WSW gusts around 25-30kt, more occasional than frequent into
daybreak.
Low end VFR expected in stratocumulus cloud cover/ceilings. Spotty
showers possible, but with little impact to flight categories.
Westerly winds gust 30-35kt through 00-03Z Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind gusts may be more occasional through daybreak. Ending time of
gusts early Sunday may be +/- a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sat night: VFR W-NW winds gust around 25kt.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers in the afternoon.
SW-W winds G20-25kt.
Mon through Wed: Mainly VFR. Slight chc of MVFR late Wed.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gales remain in effect for the ocean waters and NY Harbor
through the day, with the remaining waters under a SCA through
the first half of tonight. A large area of low pressure across
eastern Canada and the Northeast will slowly track away from the
area through tonight, Winds will gradually diminish late in the
day through the night as weak high pressure builds in from the
west. There could be a brief respite Sunday morning on the ocean
before SCA conditions return in the afternoon. Gusts will
subside late Sunday night, but SCA seas may linger in Monday
afternoon.
Sub small craft conditions are likely on all waters through midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist throughout the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DBR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/DW