000
FXUS61 KOKX 131813
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
213 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of low pressure encompassing eastern Canada and the
Northeast will lift north and east through tonight. High pressure
will then build across the area late tonight into Sunday morning.
A weak wave of low pressure will drag a warm front followed by a
cold front across the area Sunday night into Monday morning. High
pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday. A slow moving warm front
then approaches the area from the southwest Wednesday followed by
a cold front late in the week as low pressure passes well to the
northwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor adjustments with temperatures with the max temperatures.
These are expected to be mainly in the range of upper 40s for
interior sections to lower 50s for much of the rest of the area,
with some mid 50s for Eastern Long Island. Do not expect much
further rise in temperatures for the rest of the afternoon.
With a less than saturated environment, not all areas will have
rainfall reach the ground. There are expected to be isolated to
widely scattered rain showers through the day. The rain is
expected to be mainly light and just end up being rain sprinkles
for some areas. CAMs are in pretty good agreement in the shower
activity with their reflectivity forecasts. The cold pool aloft
with the deep trough is depicted very well in the upper level
water vapor satellite imagery. The trough will be slowly moving
across during today. This will keep cyclonic flow, abundant
clouds and the isolated to scattered shower coverage.
Appears that the gusty westerly flow is allowing for downslope
so relatively more vertical mixing and relatively warmer
temperatures are forecast along the coast compared to farther
inland.
CAMs shows best chance of showers across the Litchfield Hills
of Western CT and eastern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley
due to a westerly upslope flow. Elsewhere, expect sparse
coverage. It will also be gusty with west winds gusting 30 to 40
mph, highest around NYC and Western Long Island based on what
has been observed so far.
For tonight, winds will gradually subside as low pressure lifts
away and weak high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Skies will clear and lows will return to normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak ridging both aloft and at the surface will quickly move to
the east on Sunday as jet energy races across the Upper Great
Lakes and into the Northeast late in the day. At the surface,
weak low pressure passes to the NW will send a warm front through
the area Sunday evening, closely followed by a cold frontal
passage. Warm advection during the day may produce a few showers
inland, but the best chance will come in the evening into the
first half of the night as the frontal system interacts with
modest lift and marginal instability. While unidirectional wind
profiles feature 40-50kt of deep layer shear, the front is
coming through after peak heating, and any organized convection
approaching from the northwest will likely undergo weakening. At
this time, have a chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms. SPC does have areas north and west of the NYC
metro under a marginal risk of severe weather. The main threat
would be localized damaging winds. Confidence is low at this
time.
West winds ahead of the system on Sunday will back to the SW-S
and gusts 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. It will be mild with
highs generally in the 60s just inland of the coast, to around
70 for the NJ metro. The cold front then works across the area
from NW to SE, during the evening into early morning hours
Sunday night. Expect a mild night with lows 7 to 10 degrees
warmer than the previous night.
High pressure returns for Monday with continued mild conditions.
West winds should allow immediate coastal locations to even get
a bit warmer.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Messages*
*Unsettled conditions from mid to late week with daily shower
chances.
*A period of warmth with above normal temperatures expected Tuesday
through Thursday.
Not much change in the forecast thinking for this period and have
stuck close to the NBM with some adjustment for PoPs mid to late
week. Ensemble means in decent agreement with synoptic scale ridging
to start the period followed by a deamplification to a more zonal
flow by the end of the workweek.
As for the sensible weather, mainly dry conditions expected through
Wednesday AM, when a warm front attached to a deepening sfc low
across the country`s midsection approaches from the southwest by
afternoon. Shower chances increase through the day Wed as the front
slowly moves north, or stalls over the area. While PWATS look to be
over an inch, better forcing is found back to the west, so expecting
mainly light rain at this point. Area is then warm sectored
Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Global
ensemble mean soundings (per DESI) show a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE
with some marginal shear, so potential is there for a few
thunderstorms, and have reflected this with slight chance thunder
across north and western sections of the area Thu afternoon as the
cold front passes through.
Friday remains unsettled as another quick moving frontal system
impacts the area, with shower chances remaining.
Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the week. Tuesday
looks to be the warmest day under weak westerly flow, with only a
few degrees of spread in the NBM adding to forecast confidence in
low 70s for NYC and NE NJ with upper 60s elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds toward the terminals today. Low pressure
approaches from the Great Lakes on Sunday.
VFR through the TAF period.
WSW to W winds of 15 to around 20 kt with gusts around 25-35
kt. Winds may shift toward 290-300 true as a surface trough
moves through the terminals through 21Z. Winds begin to taper
after 00Z Sunday, with gusts completely gone between 06-09Z.
Winds shift to the S to SW Sunday morning, with gusts returning
by the late morning to early afternoon at 25 to 30 kt.
Low end VFR in stratocumulus cloud cover/ceilings continue for
the remainder of this afternoon with clouds diminishing this
evening. Spotty showers possible this afternoon as well, but
with little, if any impact to flight categories. Some high end
MVFR possible at KSWF in -SHRA this afternoon, but confidence
low.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Ending time of gusts early Sunday may be +/- a few hours. Winds
may shift more toward 290-300 true with the passage of a surface
trough.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sat night: VFR W-NW winds gust around 25kt.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers in the afternoon.
SW-W winds G20-25kt.
Mon through Tue: Mainly VFR.
Wed and Thu: Slight chc of MVFR late Wed.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Keeping headlines on the waters the same as previous forecast
with wind gusts well into gale force near the coast in the
vicinity of NYC, NY Harbor and Western Long Island ocean
shorelines. Marine forecast mainly on track.
Gales remain in effect for the ocean waters and NY Harbor
through the day, with the remaining waters under a SCA through
the first half of tonight. A large area of low pressure across
eastern Canada and the Northeast will slowly track away from the
area through tonight, Winds will gradually diminish late in the
day through the night as weak high pressure builds in from the
west. There could be a brief respite Sunday morning on the ocean
before SCA conditions return in the afternoon. Gusts will
subside late Sunday night, but SCA seas may linger in Monday
afternoon.
Sub small craft conditions are likely on all waters through midweek.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist throughout the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP/DBR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/DBR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/DW