000
FXUS61 KOKX 132012
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of low pressure encompassing eastern Canada and the
Northeast will lift north and east through tonight. High pressure
will then build across the area late tonight into Sunday morning.
A weak wave of low pressure will drag a warm front followed by a
cold front across the area Sunday night into Monday morning. High
pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday. A slow moving warm front
then approaches the area from the southwest Wednesday followed by
a cold front late in the week as low pressure passes well to the
northwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Upper level trough moves across this evening before shifting
east of the area overnight. Low pressure at the surface
strengthens within Southeast Canada.
Gusty winds along with isolated to scattered rain shower
activity is expected to continue into early this evening. Gusty
winds due to the steep pressure gradient and cold air advection
will linger well into this evening. Gusts up to 30 to 40 mph
are expected along much of the coast. BUFKIT shows enhanced
mixing and top of the mixed layer would be even higher gusts up
to near 45 to 50 mph. However, chances of realizing those gusts
will be low as diurnal heating will be lessening for this
evening. Surface wind gusts were increased noting some higher
lapse rates from 900 to 850mb.
Overnight, ridging trend aloft. Surface high pressure builds in
late into early Sunday morning. Drier conditions along with a
weakening pressure gradient so gusts are expected to lower late
tonight as well.
Min temperatures forecast range from upper 30s to upper 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Brief high pressure and continued ridging in the morning Sunday.
Day starts out mostly sunny but with increasing clouds in the
afternoon ahead of the next low pressure system, quickly moving
and developing within the Northeast from the Great Lakes. Low
level winds become more southerly Sunday, eventually becoming
gusty in the afternoon into the evening.
The rapidly evolving and moving low pressure area will increase
vertical forcing and shear. Instability increases in the low
levels as well. Showers will become likely for interior and
parts of the western area. There will be a chance for
thunderstorms as well, some of which could become strong to
severe with strong to damaging winds as the primary threat
especially for more western and interior areas.
Max temperatures Sunday are forecast to be upper 50s to around
70. Min temperatures Sunday night are forecast to be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Overall not much change in the long term period.
High pressure returns for Monday and will continue through Tuesday
night with dry weather expected. Both days are expected to be
somewhat mild with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
Unsettled conditions return mid and late week as a warm front slowly
approaches from the south on Wednesday. The warm front associated
with a low pressure in the middle of the country.
Expect shower chances to increase through the day as the front
either slowly approaches or stalls over the area. PWATS increase to
over an inch, however better forcing remains west of the region.
Expecting mainly light rain at this point. Area is then warm
sectored Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the
west. Can not rule out a few rumbles of thunder with the frontal
boundary, however, confidence remains low and will not include
in the forecast at this time.
The chance for unsettled weather remains Friday into Saturday as
another quick moving frontal system may impact the area, with shower
chances remaining. There is some uncertainty with this second cold
front will limit POPs to just chance.
With the unsettled weather expected and mostly cloudy skies
forecast, highs Wednesday through Saturday will generally remain in
the 50s and 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds toward the terminals today. Low pressure
approaches from the Great Lakes on Sunday.
VFR through the TAF period.
WSW to W winds of 15 to around 20 kt with gusts around 25-35 kt. As
a surface trough and showers associated with the trough (which
should have much, if any impact to flight categories) move through,
winds may gust higher than the prevailing forecast through around
22Z. A TEMPO group was added for gusts around 40 to 45 kt during
this time frame. Winds may also shift toward 290-300 true as this
surface trough moves through the terminals through 22Z. Winds begin
to taper after 00Z Sunday, with gusts completely gone between 06-
09Z. Winds shift to the S to SW Sunday morning, with gusts returning
by the late morning to early afternoon at 25 to 30 kt.
Low end VFR in stratocumulus cloud cover/ceilings continue for the
remainder of this afternoon with clouds diminishing this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts of 40 to 45 kt are possible through 22Z with the passage of a
surface trough and associated showers.
Ending time of gusts early Sunday may be +/- a few hours. Winds may
shift more toward 290-300 true with the passage of a surface trough.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sat night: VFR W-NW winds gust around 25kt.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers in the afternoon.
SW-W winds G20-25kt.
Mon through Tue: Mainly VFR.
Wed and Thu: Slight chc of MVFR late Wed.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Gale warning now in effect for all waters. LI Sound and Bays
gale warning goes until 9PM and NY Harbor and ocean gale warning
goes until 10PM. Thereafter, expecting much of the remainder of
the night to have SCA level winds especially on the ocean. Ocean
seas retain SCA levels through tonight.
On Sunday, non-ocean will have sub-SCA conditions in the morning
with increasing chances for SCA level gusts in the afternoon,
especially for the LI South Shore Bays. The ocean likely remains
at SCA levels for Sunday on average. SCA level gusts will be
likely for most waters Sunday evening. Overnight, wind gusts
drop to below SCA levels but ocean probably will still have
some gusts near 25 kt. Ocean seas likely remain at SCA levels
Sunday night.
SCA seas will continue on the ocean waters into Monday, with sub-SCA
conditions then expected on all waters Monday night through
Wednesday. Sub small craft conditions are likely on all waters
through midweek.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist throughout the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
340-345.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM