000
FXUS61 KOKX 140517
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
117 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure briefly builds in from the west overnight
into Sunday morning. A quick moving low pressure system approaches
from the Great Lakes late Sunday afternoon, and moves through
Sunday night. High pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday. A
slow moving warm front then approaches the area from the southwest
Wednesday followed by a cold front late in the week as low
pressure passes well to the northwest.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Upper level trough departs to the east tonight with shortwave
ridging building in from the west. Weakening low pressure over
southeast Canada continues to lift north and east and away from
the area.

As a result, winds will continue to subside as surface high
pressure builds in thru early Sunday morning.

Min temperatures forecast range from upper 30s to upper 40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Brief high pressure and continued ridging in the morning Sunday.
Day starts out mostly sunny but with increasing clouds in the
afternoon ahead of the next low pressure system, quickly moving
and developing within the Northeast from the Great Lakes. Low
level winds become more southerly Sunday, eventually becoming
gusty in the afternoon into the evening as a warm front moves
north of the region. This will increase low level warm air
advection.

The rapidly evolving and moving low pressure area will increase
vertical forcing and shear. This will be ahead of an associated
cold front. Instability increases in the low levels as well.
Showers will become likely for interior and parts of the western
area. There will be a chance for thunderstorms as well, some of
which could become strong to severe with strong to damaging
winds as the primary threat especially for more western and
interior areas. The main timing of this precipitation is from late
Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

Max temperatures Sunday are forecast to be upper 50s to around
70 with higher end of the range towards Lower Hudson Valley and
Northeast NJ. Min temperatures Sunday night are forecast to be
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Overall confidence is low on the forecast with the thunderstorms
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. CAMs depict a line of
showers and thunderstorms moving through from the north. Model
solutions vary from completely weakening this line to some
maintaining the strength of this line as it moves southward.
Higher severe threat is within more western locations and these
locales get warmer during the day and lower severe threat is for
eastern locations that will have more stabilizing effect of the
marine layer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall not much change in the long term period.

High pressure returns for Monday and will continue through
Tuesday night with dry weather expected. Both days are expected
to be somewhat mild with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

Unsettled conditions return mid and late week as a warm front
slowly approaches from the south on Wednesday. The warm front
associated with a low pressure in the middle of the country.

Expect shower chances to increase through the day as the front
either slowly approaches or stalls over the area. PWATS increase
to over an inch, however better forcing remains west of the
region. Expecting mainly light rain at this point. Area is then
warm sectored Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches from
the west. Can not rule out a few rumbles of thunder with the
frontal boundary, however, confidence remains low and will not
include in the forecast at this time.

The chance for unsettled weather remains Friday into Saturday
as another quick moving frontal system may impact the area, with
shower chances remaining. There is some uncertainty with this
second cold front will limit POPs to just chance.

With the unsettled weather expected and mostly cloudy skies
forecast, highs Wednesday through Saturday will generally remain
in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure today gives way to a quick moving low pressure
system with its cold front moving through Sunday night.

VFR. Potential for 1-3 hr period of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA btwn 22z
and 04z Sunday evening for western terminals.

W/NW gusts gradually subside through 09Z. Winds shift to the SW
Sunday morning, with gusts 20 to 25 kt returning by the late
morning to early afternoon, and potentially reaching S/SW G 25
to 30 kt by late afternoon.

Windshift to W/NW possible with TSRA or gust front/cold front
during the eve push, particularly western terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

High confidence in VFR with W/SW winds around 10 kt for morning
push.

S seabreeze of 20-25g30kt likely for JFK in mid to late
afternoon. SW gusts 25-30kt likely for KLGA/KEWR/KTEB in the mid
to late afternoon.

Timing of TSRA may be off by +/- an hour or two Sunday
afternoon. Low to medium confidence of occurrence at this
point.

Potential for LLWS btwn 22z and 04z SW winds around 50kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: Chance of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA for western terminals in
the evening. SW to W windshift. VFR and W/NW winds around 10 kt
aft midnight.

Mon through Tue: Mainly VFR.

Wed and Thu: Slight chc of MVFR late Wed.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to gradually diminish overnight with the
non-ocean waters expected to fall below SCA levels around 2am.
Winds over the ocean expected to fall below SCA late tonight
into Sunday morning with seas falling suit briefly Sun AM, but
this will be short lived with SCA SSW winds and seas building
once again.

On Sunday, non-ocean will have sub-SCA conditions in the morning
with SCA likely in the afternoon, especially for the LI South
Shore Bays and NY Harbor. The ocean likely remains at SCA
levels for Sunday on average. SCA level gusts will be likely for
most waters Sunday evening. Overnight, wind gusts drop to below
SCA levels but ocean probably will still have some gusts near
25 kt. Ocean seas likely remain at SCA levels Sunday night.

SCA seas will continue on the ocean waters into Monday, with sub-SCA
conditions then expected on all waters Monday night through
Wednesday. Sub small craft conditions are likely on all waters
through midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With a fast speed expected with the showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, no hydrologic concerns are
expected with rainfall amounts forecast of less than a half
inch.

No hydrologic concerns exist thereafter throughout the rest of
the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

UPDATE...DW/DBR