000
FXUS61 KOKX 151107
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
707 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front across the area this morning will wash out by
afternoon. A secondary cold front or surface trough will then move
through early this evening, followed by high pressure building
in for Tuesday. A slow moving warm front then approaches from
the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure briefly
builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stationary front across the area is still producing spotty
sprinkles and/or brief showers across the area, otherwise much
of the day is forecast to be dry. The front looks to wash out
across the area as daytime heating mixes down a westerly flow
aloft. Initial thinking here is that any seabreeze development
along the coast should be brief and not work too far in from the
coast.
An amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada and into the
Northeast will send a push of cooler south, reflected as a
secondary cold front or surface trough moving through the area
late this afternoon/early this evening. Some of the CAMs are
generating showers along the boundary, mainly from LI and south
across the ocean waters as the boundary interacts with a little
more available moisture. Preference is toward a warmer and
deeper boundary layer per the 00Z GFS, and drier. Thus,
instability is very limited and chances for showers are low at
this time. In addition, with the deeper mixed layer, expect some
wind gusts this afternoon of 20 to 25 mph, with a few higher
gusts possible. The westerly flow will also allow for a very
warm day even at down at the coast (minus any seabreeze
development). Highs are forecast to get into the lower and mid
70s, but it will be cooler along the oceanfront and Twin Forks
of LI, as well as coastal SE CT. This is about 10-12 degrees
above normal.
Following any showers this evening, winds will diminish and
become northerly overnight. It will be a cooler night, but still
a few degrees above normal, generally in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the NW into Tuesday night, but then
retreats offshore on Wednesday as an upper low lifts up into the
mid and upper Mississippi Valley. This will upper ridge axis
will shift east of the area late Wednesday. Warm advection on
the backside and an approaching surface warm front form the SW
will result in increasing clouds and chances of rain,
especially in the late afternoon and evening hours. Highs
Tuesday will be several degrees cooler, but still on the mild
side. The same goes for Tuesday night. With the high moving
offshore on Wednesday, ESE winds and increasing clouds will
allow for a much cooler day, in fact more in line with normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Messages*
*Unsettled conditions Wednesday night through Thursday with showers
likely.
*Near normal temperatures for the period.
Only minor changes were made to the extended forecast, and the NBM
was closely followed.
Global ensemble means continue to depict synoptic scale ridging
deamplifying to a more zonal flow by the end of the workweek and
into next weekend.
To start the period, shower chances increase late Wednesday into
Thursday as a warm front slowly approaches the region from the
south. While PWATS look to be near 1-1.25" per latest BUFKIT model
soundings (near the daily max via SPC sounding climo for OKX),
better forcing remains back to the west with main sfc low over the
OH Valley. Thus expecting mainly light rain event at this point.
Latest global ensemble guidance also continues to indicate that a
wave of low pressure develops along this warm front to the south,
and so the area remains on the cool side. That would limit any
convective potential to areas south of our area.
The wave and front to the south head offshore to the east on Friday,
allowing for brief weak high pressure to build in. Clouds and
showers may hang around-especially for eastern portions of the area--
into midday Friday. Another frontal system approaches from the
west, and looks to move quickly through on Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal for much of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system was located near the terminals this morning. A
weak cold front then moves across this evening.
VFR. A few showers are possible this evening with cold frontal
passage, but confidence in coverage not high enough to include
in TAFs. Any shower activity will likely not reduce cigs/vsbys
significantly.
SW winds less than 10kts early this AM increase to
12-15G20-25kt by afternoon. Late day S/SSW sea-breeze likely
for JFK and ISP. Winds become NW after 00Z Tuesday through the
end of the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
W gusts 20-25 kt likely by afternoon. Late day S seabreeze
likely at JFK. Timing of onset may be +/- an hour or so.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Mon night through Tue: NW gusts 15-20 kt in the evening. VFR.
Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain
showers, most likely in the Wed night into early Thu time period.
Easterly winds near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt late Wed night
into Thu.
Fri: Chance of rain showers and MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA continues for the ocean waters into early this afternoon
for seas. Winds will become WSW on the waters, generally around
10 kt or less, but a bit stronger along the coast with gust
potential to around 20 kt. Wind shift to the north tonight at
less than 10 kt. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters
through midday Thursday. Thereafter, SCA conditions may then
return to the ocean waters Thursday afternoon into Friday as a
frontal system remains near the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns thought the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DBR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/DW