discussion on 2024-04-15

000
FXUS61 KOKX 151440
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1040 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front across the area this morning will wash out by
afternoon. A secondary cold front or surface trough will then move
through early this evening, followed by high pressure building
in for Tuesday. A slow moving warm front then approaches from
the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure briefly
builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --The stationary front seems to have dissipated as a west to
northwest flow has developed this morning, and dew points
inland have begun to lower. Showers with the front have also
ended. Otherwise much of the day is forecast to be dry. With
deep mixing having developed temperatures rose quickly this
morning, and updated, and raised, high temperatures mainly
across the inland regions, leaning toward the MOS guidance.

Initial thinking here is that any seabreeze development along
the coast should be brief and not work too far in from the
coast.

An amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada and into the
Northeast will send a push of cooler air south, reflected as a
secondary cold front or surface trough moving through the area
late this afternoon/early this evening. Some of the CAMs are
generating showers along the boundary, mainly from LI and south
across the ocean waters as the boundary interacts with a little
more available moisture. Preference is toward a warmer and
deeper boundary layer per the 00Z GFS, and drier. Thus,
instability is very limited and chances for showers are low at
this time. In addition, with the deeper mixed layer, expect some
wind gusts this afternoon of 20 to 25 mph, with a few higher
gusts possible. The westerly flow will also allow for a very
warm day even at down at the coast (minus any seabreeze
development). High temperatures will be about 12-17 degrees
above normal.

Following any showers this evening, winds will diminish and
become northerly overnight. It will be a cooler night, but still
a few degrees above normal, generally in the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in from the NW into Tuesday night, but
then retreats offshore on Wednesday as an upper low lifts up
into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. This will upper ridge
axis will shift east of the area late Wednesday. Warm advection
on the backside and an approaching surface warm front form the
SW will result in increasing clouds and chances of rain,
especially in the late afternoon and evening hours. Highs
Tuesday will be several degrees cooler, but still on the mild
side. The same goes for Tuesday night. With the high moving
offshore on Wednesday, ESE winds and increasing clouds will
allow for a much cooler day, in fact more in line with normal.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Messages*

*Unsettled conditions Wednesday night through Thursday with showers
likely.

*Near normal temperatures for the period.

Only minor changes were made to the extended forecast, and the NBM
was closely followed.

Global ensemble means continue to depict synoptic scale ridging
deamplifying to a more zonal flow by the end of the workweek and
into next weekend.

To start the period, shower chances increase late Wednesday into
Thursday as a warm front slowly approaches the region from the
south. While PWATS look to be near 1-1.25" per latest BUFKIT model
soundings (near the daily max via SPC sounding climo for OKX),
better forcing remains back to the west with main sfc low over the
OH Valley. Thus expecting mainly light rain event at this point.
Latest global ensemble guidance also continues to indicate that a
wave of low pressure develops along this warm front to the south,
and so the area remains on the cool side. That would limit any
convective potential to areas south of our area.

The wave and front to the south head offshore to the east on Friday,
allowing for brief weak high pressure to build in. Clouds and
showers may hang around-especially for eastern portions of the area--
into midday Friday. Another frontal system approaches from the
west, and looks to move quickly through on Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal for much of
the week.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A weak cold front then moves across this evening. High pressure
builds over the terminals on Tuesday.

VFR. A few showers are possible this evening with a weak frontal
passage, but confidence in coverage remains too low to include
in TAFs. Any shower activity will likely not reduce cigs/vsbys
significantly.

General NW flow for most late this morning backs more WNW or W
toward 16 or 17Z, with speeds 12-15G20-25kt thru the afternoon.
Late day S/SSW sea breeze likely for JFK and ISP. Gusts largely
end after 22Z, and winds become NW after 00Z Tue through the
end of the TAF period. Speeds a bit lower on Tuesday, closer to
10 kt, with gusts toward 20 kt possible by mid to late morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may be more NNW for a period into late this morning,
before backing W..AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front then moves across this evening. High pressure
builds over the terminals on Tuesday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may be more NNW for a period into late this morning,
before backing W.

Late day S seabreeze likely at JFK. Timing of onset may be off
by an hour or so.

Gusts on Tuesday may be more occasional.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tue: NW gusts 15 to 20 kt into the evening. VFR.

Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain
showers, mostly Wed night into early Thu. Easterly winds near
10 to 15 kt with gusts near 20 kt late Wed night into Thu.

Fri: Chance of rain showers and MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

SCA continues for the ocean waters into early this afternoon
for seas. Winds will become WSW on the waters, generally around
10 kt or less, but a bit stronger along the coast with gust
potential to around 20 kt. Wind shift to the north tonight at
less than 10 kt. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters
through midday Thursday. Thereafter, SCA conditions may then
return to the ocean waters Thursday afternoon into Friday as a
frontal system remains near the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns thought the forecast period.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353-355.

SYNOPSIS...DBR/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR/DR
MARINE...DBR/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/DW