000
FXUS61 KOKX 151748
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
148 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A secondary cold front or surface trough moves through the
region early this evening, followed by high pressure building
in for Tuesday. A slow moving warm front then approaches from
the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure briefly
builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Temperatures have continues to rise above forecast levels as dew
points fall into the lower and mid 40s in a west to northwest
gusty flow. Updated once again to adjust both temperatures and
dew points as a deep mixed layer has developed.
Local sea breezes have developed along the Connecticut coast and
the south shore of Long Island, which is also having impacts to
temperatures and dew points where winds have become southerly.
An amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada and into the
Northeast will send a push of cooler air south, reflected as a
secondary cold front or surface trough moving through the area
late this afternoon/early this evening. CAMs continue to
generate showers along the boundary, mainly from LI and south
across the ocean waters as the boundary interacts with a little
more available moisture.
Following any showers this evening, winds will diminish and
become northerly overnight. It will be a cooler night, but still
a few degrees above normal, generally in the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the NW into Tuesday night, but
then retreats offshore on Wednesday as an upper low lifts up
into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. This will upper ridge
axis will shift east of the area late Wednesday. Warm advection
on the backside and an approaching surface warm front form the
SW will result in increasing clouds and chances of rain,
especially in the late afternoon and evening hours. Highs
Tuesday will be several degrees cooler, but still on the mild
side. The same goes for Tuesday night. With the high moving
offshore on Wednesday, ESE winds and increasing clouds will
allow for a much cooler day, in fact more in line with normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*Key Messages*
*Unsettled conditions Wednesday night through Thursday with showers
likely.
*Near normal temperatures for the period.
Only minor changes were made to the extended forecast, and the NBM
was closely followed.
Global ensemble means continue to depict synoptic scale ridging
deamplifying to a more zonal flow by the end of the workweek and
into next weekend.
To start the period, shower chances increase late Wednesday into
Thursday as a warm front slowly approaches the region from the
south. While PWATS look to be near 1-1.25" per latest BUFKIT model
soundings (near the daily max via SPC sounding climo for OKX),
better forcing remains back to the west with main sfc low over the
OH Valley. Thus expecting mainly light rain event at this point.
Latest global ensemble guidance also continues to indicate that a
wave of low pressure develops along this warm front to the south,
and so the area remains on the cool side. That would limit any
convective potential to areas south of our area.
The wave and front to the south head offshore to the east on Friday,
allowing for brief weak high pressure to build in. Clouds and
showers may hang around-especially for eastern portions of the area--
into midday Friday. Another frontal system approaches from the
west, and looks to move quickly through on Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal for much of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A weak cold front moves through this evening. High pressure
builds over the terminals on Tuesday.
VFR. A few isolated showers are possible this evening with a
weak frontal passage, but confidence in coverage remains too low
to include in TAFs. Any shower activity will likely not reduce
cigs/vsbys significantly.
General W or WNW flow, with speeds 10-15G20-25kt thru the
remainder of the day. Exceptions are JFK, and perhaps ISP, where
sea breezes allow S or SW flow. Gusts largely end after 22Z,
and winds become more NW after 00Z Tue through the end of the
TAF period. Speeds a bit lower on Tuesday, closer to 10 kt, with
gusts toward 20 kt possible by mid to late morning into early
evening. Coastal sea breeze possible once again, best chance at
JFK.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Late day S seabreeze possible at JFK on Tuesday.
Timing of onset may be off by an hour or so.
Gusts on Tuesday may be more occasional.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tue PM: NW gusts 15 to 20 kt into early evening. VFR.
Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain
showers, mostly Wed night into early Thu. Easterly winds near
10 to 15 kt with gusts near 20 kt late Wed night into Thu.
Fri: Chance of rain showers and MVFR.
Sat: MVFR possible early with rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Seas at the Block Island buoy remain just above 6 feet, and seas
across the eastern ocean waters likely remain at 5 feet or
higher. Extended the SCA east of Moriches Inlet until 00Z
Tuesday, and cancelled the advisory to the west.
Winds will become WSW on the waters, generally around 10 kt or
less, but a bit stronger along the coast with gust potential to
around 20 kt. Wind shift to the north tonight at less than 10
kt. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through
midday Thursday. Thereafter, SCA conditions may then return to
the ocean waters Thursday afternoon into Friday as a frontal
system remains near the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DBR/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/DW