000
FXUS61 KOKX 151957
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front in the vicinity pushes south of the area
early this evening. High pressure builds in tonight and remains
through Tuesday night. A slow moving warm front then approaches
from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure
briefly builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on
Saturday. The front remains not too far offshore on Sunday as
high pressure tries to build in, then high pressure strengthens
more on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A warm airmass remains across the region with temperatures
peaking nearly 20 degrees above normal. A record high
temperature was set at Islip MacArthur Airport, see RERISP for
details. Temperatures along the south shore of Long Island and
the Connecticut coast fell as sea breezes developed.
A weak cold front was in the vicinity of Long Island, through
central New Jersey and along the Pennsylvania/Maryland border.
This front will be pushing slowly southward through this
evening as high pressure builds in from the northwest. While the
CAMs do continue to develop a few showers across Long Island
and the waters to the south, the best instability and CAPE was
in the vicinity of the front across Pennsylvania and Maryland.
With a few showers remaining possible continued with the slight
chance probabilities, and have not mentioned thunder with no
CAPE or instability.
Overnight lows will still be running 5 to around 7 degrees
above normal, and used a blend of the MOS and NBM.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure remains over the region for Tuesday and Tuesday
night with temperatures again above normal by 5 to 10 degrees.
Tuesday night temperatures will be near seasonal normals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A broad area of low pressure stretching from the western Great
Lakes to the Ohio Valley approaches on Wednesday. Moisture and
lift with an associated warm front brings chances of showers
mainly in the afternoon. Showers will be more likely starting
late in the day for western zones, and early evening for most of
the rest of the area. Upper support for the system weakens in
the vicinity of the Great Lakes later Wednesday night, and
deterministic models are still showing a weak low center
developing near the Mid-Atlantic coast with perhaps some mid
level shortwave energy. This low is still progged to remain
south of the forecast area, but close enough to keep showers
likely for most of the area through Thursday.
The low to the south doesn`t move much during Friday with an
inverted trough extending northward towards us. At the same
time, a cold front approaches from the west. Most, if not all of
the day will likely be dry, but cannot rule out an afternoon
shower. A chance of showers then follows for Friday night into
Saturday with the cold front passing through.
There`s some question regarding how far south the departing
cold front sinks during Saturday night through Sunday night.
Have therefore gone with slight chance/chance PoPs during this
period. Weak high pressure then keeps us dry on Monday.
High temperatures through the period are expected to be within
a few degrees of normal with the exception being Thursday, when
highs will be only the lower 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A weak boundary moves through this evening. High pressure then
builds over the terminals Tuesday.
VFR. A few isolated showers are possible this evening for
coastal terminals with a weak frontal passage, but coverage is
expected to be low and continue to omit from TAFs. Any shower
activity will likely not reduce cigs or vsbys significantly.
General W flow, with speeds 10-15G20-25kt thru the remainder of
the day. Exceptions are some of the coastal terminals,
particularly JFK and ISP, where sea breezes have already pushed
through and turned flow S or SW. Gusts largely end toward 00Z
Tue, and winds become more NW thereafter through the end of the
TAF period. Speeds a bit lower on Tuesday, closer to 10 kt, with
gusts toward 20 kt possible from mid to late morning into early
evening. Coastal sea breeze possible once again, best chance at
JFK.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gust cessation this evening and start on Tuesday may be
off by an hour or two. Gusts on Tuesday may be more occasional.
Late day S sea breeze possible at JFK on Tuesday, timing may be off
by a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tue PM: NW gusts 15 to 20 kt into early evening. VFR.
Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain
showers, mostly Wed night into early Thu. E winds 10 to 15 kt with
gusts near 20 kt.
Fri: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers.
Sat: MVFR possible early with showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Seas on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet remain above 5
feet until late this evening, and extended the SCA until 02Z.
Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below advisory levels
through Wednesday. Winds increase Wednesday night as the
pressure gradient tightens in response to a broad area of low
pressure approaching. SCA conds become likely on the ocean by
the end of the night, and possibly on some of the other waters
as well. Winds increase further during Thursday as a low center
develops to the south. Once again, advisory conditions still
likely on the ocean and potentially for other spots. Winds
diminish Thursday night into Friday, however a lingering swell
with on onshore flow may keep ocean seas above 5 ft through at
least Friday morning. Sub-advisory conditions on all waters
otherwise Friday afternoon through Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic issues with the showers this evening, then the
weather is dry tonight through Tuesday night.
A half inch to inch of rainfall is expected from Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday afternoon. No hydrologic impacts are expected with
this event.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET