000
FXUS61 KOKX 160953
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
553 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northwest through tonight. A
slow moving warm front then approaches from the southwest Wednesday
into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday. A cold
front moves through Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure
builds in late Saturday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Real minor adjustments with the latest forecast update to
account for latest conditions.

A departing upper trough across the Northeast and an upper low
lifting across the Central Plains will allow ridging between the
two to build into the area through tonight. At the surface, high
pressure ridging down across the Great Lakes will work in from
the west. Expect another warm, dry day, but about 10 degrees
cooler than the day before. Highs are expected to be in the mid
and upper 60s to around 70 across the NYC metro. NW winds today
may occasionally gusts 15 to 20 mph. Seabreezes should not get
too far inland.

For tonight, clear skies and light northerly winds will allow
for a cooler night than recent days, but still a few degrees
above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weakening low pressure lifts up through the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and into south central Canada by Thursday. The
associated warm front will approach from the SW during this time
with increasing rain chances Wednesday afternoon and night due
to deep-layered warm advection. The system is not deeply convective
and lift is modest. Rainfall amounts are forecast to between
0.25 to 0.75", with the highest amounts at this time across the
NYC/NJ metro and LI. The bulk of the rain looks to fall Wednesday
night.

An easterly flow and chances of rain will drop highs on Wednesday
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, and this trend
continues into Thursday. East winds ramp up Wednesday night into
Thursday as the pressure gradient strengthens between the
departing high and the warm front. Gusts potential is 20 to 30
mph, highest along the coast. A frontal wave developing along
the warm front pushes off the Mid Atlantic coast on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The warm front weakens Thursday night as it moves into deep layered
ridging and a weak low tracks east of the Mid-Atlantic. The
low meanders off the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday with an inverted
trough extending northward towards us. At the same time, a cold
front approaches from the west. Most, if not all of the day
will likely be dry, however, cannot rule out an afternoon shower
especially north and west of New York City. A chance of showers
then follows for the entire forecast area Friday night into
Saturday with the cold front passing through.

High pressure then builds in from the west Saturday night through
Monday, with dry conditions forecast through the period.

High temperatures through the period are expected to be within a few
degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals tonight into Tuesday
night.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds generally will be N to NW at 5 to 10 kt overnight. The
winds become more NW into the morning and remain NW through
Tuesday with speeds closer to 10 kt, and gusts around 15-20 kt
by late morning until early evening. A coastal sea breeze will
be possible later in the day, though there still remains
uncertainty with this. Added TEMPO for wind shifts more to the
SW at KJFK, KISP, and KGON. The winds lighten and remain mainly
N to NNE Tuesday evening, becoming light and variable for
outlying terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts starting Tuesday may be off by an hour or two. Gusts
on Tuesday may be more occasional.

Late day S-SW sea breeze possible on Tuesday for KJFK, timing
may be off by a couple of hours with confidence in occurrence
below average.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tue night: VFR. NW gusts end in the evening, mainly light N winds.

Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain
showers, mostly Wed night into early Thu. E winds 10 to 15 kt with
gusts near 20 kt.

Fri: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers.

Sat: MVFR possible early with showers.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Wind and seas are forecast to remain below SCA as high pressure
builds in from the NW through tonight. A warm front approaches
on Wednesday with a tightening pressure gradient between the
front and departing high. There is the potential for SCA conditions
in an easterly flow late Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusts
of 25 to 30 kt will be possible with seas on the ocean of 4 to 7
ft.

Winds diminish Thursday night into Friday, however a lingering swell
with onshore flow may keep ocean seas above 5 ft through at least
Friday morning. Sub- advisory conditions on all waters otherwise
Friday afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is the potential for 0.25 to 0.75" of rainfall from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. No hydrologic
impacts are expected with this event.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW