000
FXUS61 KOKX 161755
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
155 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northwest through tonight. A
slow moving warm front then approaches from the southwest Wednesday
into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday. A cold
front moves through Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure
builds in late Saturday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the latest observations.
A departing upper trough across the Northeast and an upper low
lifting across the Central Plains will allow ridging between the
two to build into the area through tonight. At the surface, high
pressure ridging down across the Great Lakes will work in from
the west. Expect another warm, dry day, but about 10 degrees
cooler than the day before. Highs are expected to be in the mid
and upper 60s to around 70 across the NYC metro. NW winds today
may occasionally gusts 15 to 20 mph. Seabreezes should not get
too far inland.
For tonight, clear skies and light northerly winds will allow
for a cooler night than recent days, but still a few degrees
above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weakening low pressure lifts up through the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and into south central Canada by Thursday. The
associated warm front will approach from the SW during this time
with increasing rain chances Wednesday afternoon and night due
to deep-layered warm advection. The system is not deeply convective
and lift is modest. Rainfall amounts are forecast to between
0.25 to 0.75", with the highest amounts at this time across the
NYC/NJ metro and LI. The bulk of the rain looks to fall Wednesday
night.
An easterly flow and chances of rain will drop highs on Wednesday
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, and this trend
continues into Thursday. East winds ramp up Wednesday night into
Thursday as the pressure gradient strengthens between the
departing high and the warm front. Gusts potential is 20 to 30
mph, highest along the coast. A frontal wave developing along
the warm front pushes off the Mid Atlantic coast on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The warm front weakens Thursday night as it moves into deep layered
ridging and a weak low tracks east of the Mid-Atlantic. The
low meanders off the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday with an inverted
trough extending northward towards us. At the same time, a cold
front approaches from the west. Most, if not all of the day
will likely be dry, however, cannot rule out an afternoon shower
especially north and west of New York City. A chance of showers
then follows for the entire forecast area Friday night into
Saturday with the cold front passing through.
High pressure then builds in from the west Saturday night through
Monday, with dry conditions forecast through the period.
High temperatures through the period are expected to be within a few
degrees of normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the terminals through tonight, then
weakens Wednesday as a warm front slowly approaches from the
southwest.
VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of MVFR
ceilings at the NYC metro terminals toward 18Z Wednesday, with
low confidence, and dependent on the timing of the warm front.
Ending timing of NW gusts may be an hour or so earlier than
forecast. A late day S/SW sea breeze is possible at KJFK, with
below average confidence. Winds in the NYC metro area will be W
to NW less than 10 kt this evening, and may even become light
and variable, while the outlying terminals will likely become
light and variable this evening. Winds then become NE late
tonight into early Wednesday morning, and then E to SE. Timing
of the wind changes late tonight into Wednesday morning is
uncertain and dependent on weakening high pressure and warm
front approach.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts have become more frequent, and will likely continue
through the afternoon, ending toward 22Z.
The chance for a late day S-SW sea breeze remains possible for
KJFK, timing may be off by a couple of hours with confidence in
occurrence below average.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wed afternoon and Thu: MVFR developing Wednesday afternoon with
showers becoming likely. Conditions lower to IFR, and possibly
LIFR at time with showers Wednesday night through Thursday.
Showers end with improving conditions Thursday night. Winds
Thursday east around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt, highest along the
coast.
Fri: VFR early, then MVFR late day and at night with a chance of
showers.
Sat: MVFR with showers ending in the morning, becoming VFR.
Sun: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Wind and seas are forecast to remain below SCA as high pressure
builds in from the NW through tonight. A warm front approaches
on Wednesday with a tightening pressure gradient between the
front and departing high. There is the potential for SCA conditions
in an easterly flow late Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusts
of 25 to 30 kt will be possible with seas on the ocean of 4 to 7
ft.
Winds diminish Thursday night into Friday, however a lingering swell
with onshore flow may keep ocean seas above 5 ft through at least
Friday morning. Sub- advisory conditions on all waters otherwise
Friday afternoon through Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is the potential for 0.25" to 0.75" of rainfall from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. No hydrologic
impacts are expected with this event.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW