000
FXUS61 KOKX 162356
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
756 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in overnight. A slow moving warm front then
approaches from the southwest tomorrow and moves through the area
into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday before
a cold front passes through Friday night into Saturday morning.
High pressure then follows from Saturday afternoon through
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Only minor adjustments made to some of the hourly forecast
elements with this update. The forecast is mainly on track.
Upper level ridging upstream is allowing for a surface high pressure
to build into the area tonight. This will result in fairly clear
skies with a light northerly flow. Any location that is able to
relax the wind a bit more, mainly outlying and inland areas, may
cool more than forecast. Cooler spots may drop into the upper 30s,
but much of the area should remain in the 40s with NYC near 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level ridge shifts overhead as the surface high
pressure shifts to the east tomorrow. A mid-level shortwave
moving over the Great Lakes allows a weakening surface low to
move into Southern Canada. The associated warm front approaches
the area from the southwest into the afternoon and evening and
will allow rain chances to increase due to deep-layer warm air
advection. While rain should be fairly widespread, especially
into the evening and overnight, much of the area should see
anywhere from 0.25" to 0.75" of rainfall, most of which should
fall tomorrow night and into early Thursday. While the rainfall
doesn`t appear to be convective in nature, some isolated
convective elements will be possible along with the low chance
of thunder, especially for southwestern areas into the evening
and overnight.
The rainfall will lighten up and showers should become more
widely scattered as the main area of forcing shifts south into
Thursday. Moisture will still be present and despite a lack of widespread
forcing, shower activity may continue into the day on Thursday,
progressively becoming lighter and less likely through the day.
An easterly flow and chances of rain will drop highs tomorrow about
5 to 10 degrees cooler than today, and this trend continues
into Thursday. East winds ramp up tomorrow night into Thursday
as the pressure gradient strengthens between the departing high
and the warm front. Gusts potential is 20 to 30 mph, highest
along the coast. A frontal wave developing along the warm front
pushes off the Mid Atlantic coast on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An inverted trough extending north from low pressure to our south
will linger near the forecast area Thursday night through Friday.
Moisture will be shallow during this time, but there could be just
enough isentropic lift in the vicinity of the trough for some
drizzle. Cloudy otherwise, with high temperatures in the middle to
upper 50s on Friday.
A cold front approaches and passes through Friday night into
Saturday morning. Moisture will deepen along with a chance of
showers with its passage. High pressure then builds in behind the
front with dry weather for Saturday afternoon. The high will
continue to build into the region through the rest of the weekend
and remain in control of the weather through Monday. High
temperatures near normal on Saturday, but cooling off slightly for
Sunday and Monday.
A 500mb trough then shifts through the Great Lakes on Tuesday with
an associated weak surface low. It appears that we should by dry
through the day, but cannot rule out a shower for western zones by
the end of the day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the terminals through tonight, then
weakens Wednesday as a warm front slowly approaches from the
southwest.
VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of MVFR ceilings
at the NYC metro terminals toward 21-22Z Wednesday, with low
confidence, and dependent on the timing of the warm front. Have held off
sub VFR conditions until 00z Thursday as confidence increases at this time
for ceilings and visibilities to drop to MVFR.
Winds in the NYC metro area will be W to NW less than 10 kt this
evening, and may even become light and variable, while the outlying
terminals will likely become light and variable this evening. Winds
then become NE late tonight into early Wednesday morning, and then E
to SE by midday and into the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of the wind changes late tonight into Wednesday morning is
uncertain and depends on the how quickly high pressure weakens and
the speed of the warm front approach.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wed night through Thu night: IFR conditions and possibly LIFR at
times with showers Wednesday night through Thursday. Showers end
with slowly improving conditions Thursday night. Winds Thursday
east around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt, highest along the coast.
Fri: VFR early, then MVFR late day and at night with a chance of
showers.
Sat: MVFR with showers ending in the morning, becoming VFR.
Sun: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Wind and seas are forecast to remain below SCA as high pressure
builds in from the NW through tonight. A warm front approaches
on Wednesday with a tightening pressure gradient between the
front and departing high. There is the potential for SCA conditions
in an easterly flow late Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusts
of 25 to 30 kt will be possible with seas on the ocean of 4 to 7
ft.
Winds diminish Thursday night into Friday, however a lingering swell
with onshore flow may keep ocean seas above 5 ft through at least
Friday morning. Otherwise, sub-advisory conditions on all
waters Friday afternoon through Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is the potential for 0.25" to 0.75" of rainfall from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. No hydrologic
impacts are expected with this event.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW