discussion on 2024-04-18

000
FXUS61 KOKX 181146
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
746 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A slow moving warm front approaches from the southwest and
moves through the area today. High pressure briefly builds into
the region tonight and Friday before a cold front passes
through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure then
follows from Saturday afternoon through early next week. A weak
frontal system will impact the region mid week.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is on track with only minor changes needed. Previous
discussion follows.

Stacked low over south central Canada will move slowly ENE today,
with high amplitude upper level ridging over the northeast slowly
moving east. additionally, upper level ridging over the eastern
Great Lakes region shifts eastward today. At the surface, a
warm front continues its approach but looks to stall to the
southwest. A weak area of low pressure forms along this boundary
and treks southeast.

Chances for showers will continue today, but will slowly diminish
over the area as high pressure from southeastern Canada noses into
the Northeast. This, coupled with an incoming ridge aloft will bring
in just enough subsidence to bring showers to an end over much of
the forecast area by late this afternoon. Showers may transition to
just some drizzle given the abundant low level moisture with the
maritime high building in.

The high building in with the weak low to our south will mean a
strengthening easterly flow today. It does not look to be overly
windy, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 mph
along coastal sections this morning. Winds start to decrease this
afternoon as the high continues to nose into the region, with the
weak low well out to sea by this point.

The easterly flow will also mean cooler than normal temperatures for
Thursday, with highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The high continues building into the region Thursday night into Friday
morning as the ridge axis pushes east, so dry conditions
expected through this time frame. The warm front gets suppressed
to the south due to the building high, but at the same time,
the cold front associated with the low in Canada advances east.
However, as the cold front pushes east the line of showers and
thunderstorms associated with it over the central Great Lakes
region weakens as it moves over the eastern Great Lakes. Further
weakening is expected as it runs into the high over the
Northeast, so just chance to slight chance for showers are
expected as this line moves through Friday night and Saturday
morning (lingering showers for eastern areas).

Temperatures recover somewhat on Friday, with highs in the 50s
region-wide. Even warmer conditions expected for Saturday with a
westerly flow and downsloping conditions expected after the passage
of the cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance for
highs, which are expected to be in the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build into the region through the
second half of the weekend and remain in control of the weather
through Tuesday.

A 500mb trough then shifts through the Great Lakes on Tuesday with
an associated weak surface low and cold front. Rain chances increase
Tuesday night into Wednesday as this system moves across the region.
Drier weather returns for Thursday.


Temperatures will be just below normal on Sunday. Temperatures
rebound a few degrees on Monday through Wednesday with temperatures
at or just above normal. Temperatures fall back a degree or two
below normal behind the cold front on Thursday. Temperatures each
day will be in the upper 50s or 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A slow moving warm front approaches from the southwest and
moves through the area today.

IFR at most terminals, with some pockets of LIFR possible this
morning. Further east at KGON, conditions are MVFR. These
conditions are expected for much of the day, with improvement to
MVFR not expected until around 00z. After 00z, improvements can
be expected, generally from east to west. Expected periods of
light rain/drizzle through about 18-20z.

Amendments will be likely for changing flight categories today,
especially later this afternoon as conditions are expected to
change.

Wind direction will be E to ENE for much of the TAF period.
Wind speeds increase this morning to 10-15 kt with gusts mainly
in the 20-25 kt range, especially east of NYC and along the
coast. KTEB and KSWF expected to have lower winds near 10 kts
or less without gusts during the TAF period. KEWR may see gusts
more occasional than frequent.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories.
Wind gusts may be more occasional than frequent, especially at
KEWR.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Fri: VFR early, then MVFR afternoon and at night with a chance
of showers.

Sat: MVFR with showers ending in the early morning, becoming
VFR. W-WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sun through Mon: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds will increase today with 25 to 30 kt gusts
expected on all waters as high pressure builds in from the
northeast.

Wind gusts diminish tonight as the high continues to build in
over the area. Non ocean waters will likely drop below 25 kt
early early tonight. The ocean waters will likely have SCA gusts
hang on for the first few hours of Thursday night before they
also come down below 25 kt.

Seas build to 4 to 7 ft on the ocean by this morning into the
afternoon, diminishing thereafter. However, they remain above or
right around 5 ft tonight into Friday. Have extended the SCA on
the ocean waters through tonight, but may need to extend the
SCA over the ocean into Friday with a persistent, though
slowly weakening easterly flow. Waves finally drop below 5 ft on
the ocean by Friday night.

High pressure will continue to build over the area waters for the
second half of the weekend and into the first part of next week.
This should keep conditions at sub-advisory level through at least
Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels for Wednesday
with the next low pressure and associated cold front to
approach.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through trough next Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP