discussion on 2024-04-19

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190752
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
352 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure over the area today will weaken as a cold front
approaches the area from the west by tonight. The cold front
moves through the area tonight and into early Saturday, followed
by a secondary dry cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon.
High pressure builds in for the beginning of the week. A weak
frontal system will impact the region mid- week. High pressure
returns to end the week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Surface high pressure over the area will remain in place early
this morning and will gradually weaken and push out of the area
as a cold front approaches from the west into the afternoon.
Mainly dry conditions are expected for much of the day today
with the chance of showers increasing from west to east late
into the afternoon and into the evening with the approach of the
cold front. Highs will be in the middle to upper 50s.

Showers will likely continue overnight for much of the area as
the front pushes through. Much of the rainfall should be
tapering from west to east into early Saturday morning before
completely moving out of the area by midday Saturday. Lows
overnight will be in the middle to upper 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Much of the rainfall should be tapering from west to east into
early Saturday morning before completely moving out of the area
by midday Saturday. Total rainfall accumulation of generally
around a quarter inch or less is expected. Some areas to the
northeast of the area may see between a quarter inch and a half
inch of rain. A secondary cold front moves through during the
afternoon and evening Saturday and while it is expected to be a
dry passage, a stray shower can`t be ruled out. Temperatures on
Saturday should rebound nicely with highs in the middle to
potentially upper 60s for much of the area.

Surface high pressure will attempt to build back in from the
west Saturday night and into the second half of the weekend,
allowing for generally dry conditions with mostly clear skies.
Highs Sunday will be a bit cooler than Saturday with
temperatures in the upper 50s expected. With high pressure
building in and skies clearing out, lows both Saturday and
Sunday night may drop into the 30s for inland areas.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will remain in control of the weather through Tuesday.

A 500mb trough will move through the Great Lakes on Tuesday with an
associated weak surface low and cold front. This system will
approach the region Tuesday night and move across the area on
Wednesday. Expect rain chances to increase Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The cold front moves east of the region Wednesday night
with drier weather returning to end the week.

Temperatures will remain near normal through much of the long term
period, except for Thursday, when temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in from the north and then moves off the
northeast coast this afternoon as a cold front approaches to the
west. The cold front will move across the area tonight.

Conditions have improved to VFR, with a chance of MVFR ceilings at
times through 08Z.

Showers may move into the western terminals late this afternoon.
However, conditions likely remain VFR until 00Z Saturday. Conditions
are then likely to fall to MVFR and IFR tonight.

Light NE winds continue through daybreak, and a few locations may
become light and variable. Winds then shift to the E mid morning and
then SE late Friday morning into Friday afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR ceilings are possible at times until around 08Z. Timing of
showers and lower cigs Friday afternoon may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: MVFR with showers in the evening, lowering to IFR late
with showers.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers ending in the early morning,
becoming VFR. W-WNW winds G15-25 kt possible late.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20 kt possible near the coast in the
afternoon/evening.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCA seas remain on the ocean waters through today with waves
near or just over 5 feet. Ocean seas may linger over 5 feet
into tonight or early Saturday morning, so the SCA may need to
be extended.

High pressure should then keep conditions at sub-advisory levels
through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to
SCA levels on Wednesday with the next low pressure and
associated cold front to approach.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts expected through next Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.

SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC