000
FXUS61 KOKX 191925
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
325 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will weaken this afternoon as a
cold front approaches the area from the west by tonight. The
cold front moves through the area tonight and into early
Saturday, followed by a secondary dry cold frontal passage
Saturday afternoon. High pressure builds in for the beginning of
the week. A weak frontal system will impact the region mid-
week. High pressure returns to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast remains on track through the rest of the afternoon.
Surface high pressure over the area will gradually weaken and
push out of the area as a cold front approaches from the west.
Chances for showers will begin to increase this evening from
west to east with the closer proximity of the front and
associated lift. Highs will be in the middle to upper 50s.
Showers become likely overnight for much of the area as the
front pushes through. Showers should become more widespread
early Saturday morning mainly east of the city as lift is
enhanced by divergence aloft ahead of an approaching jet streak
aloft. Lows overnight will be in the middle to upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Much of the rainfall should be tapering from west to east into
Saturday morning. Lingering showers appear likely across eastern
Long Island and southeast CT before completely moving out of
by midday Saturday. Total rainfall accumulation of generally
around a quarter inch or less is expected. Some areas to the
northeast of the area may see between a quarter inch and a half
inch of rain. A secondary cold front moves through during the
afternoon and evening Saturday and while it is expected to be a
dry passage, a stray shower can`t be ruled out. Temperatures on
Saturday should rebound nicely with highs in the middle to
potentially upper 60s for much of the area.
Surface high pressure will attempt to build back in from the
west Saturday night and into the second half of the weekend,
allowing for generally dry conditions with mostly clear skies.
Highs Sunday will be a bit cooler than Saturday with
temperatures in the upper 50s expected. With high pressure
building in and skies clearing out, lows both Saturday and
Sunday night may drop into the 30s for inland areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control of the weather through
Tuesday.
A 500mb trough will move through the Great Lakes on Tuesday
with an associated weak surface low and cold front. This system
will approach the region Tuesday night and move across the area
on Wednesday. Expect rain chances to increase Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The cold front moves east of the region
Wednesday night with drier weather returning to end the week.
Temperatures will remain near normal through much of the long term
period, except for Thursday, when temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will weaken this afternoon as a cold front
approaches from the west by tonight. The front will move
through late tonight into early daytime Saturday.
MVFR cigs had developed at the NYC metros and across parts of
Long Island on leading edge of flow turning SE. These initial
cigs shouldn`t last long, but widespread MVFR cigs should
return this evening and then lower to IFR close to midnight at
the NYC metros, then an hour or two later to the north and east.
Showers off to the west attm should dissipate as they approach
the Hudson Valley and NYC metro area, then showers with the
approaching cold front should arrive late tonight into Sat
morning. Some MVFR cigs should linger into the morning after
fropa, with improvement to VFR from around 14Z at the NYC
metros to around 16Z out east at KGON. NW-W flow after fropa
should be mostly under 10 kt, but could pick up with some gusts
15-20 kt close to 18Z from KTEB/KEWR north/west.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
High confidence in winds. Unscheduled AMD possible for changing
flight categories through this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: VFR. W-WNW winds increasing to 15G20-25kt.
Saturday night: VFR. Secondary cold fropa early with winds
shifting NW 10-15G20kt.
Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon/early evening
mainly NYC metros/coast.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Showers becoming likely. S winds 10-15G20-25kt mainly
in the afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA seas remain on the ocean waters through today with waves
just over 5 feet. Have extended the SCA through 06z tonight as
there is a likelihood of 5 ft seas lingering overnight. Seas
should subside below 5 ft by early Saturday morning.
High pressure should then keep conditions at sub-advisory levels
through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to
SCA levels on Wednesday with the next low pressure and
associated cold front to approach.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW