000
FXUS61 KOKX 192348
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves across the region late tonight into early
Saturday, followed by a secondary cold front Saturday evening.
High pressure then builds in through early next week, but gives
way to a frontal system mid week. High pressure follows behind
to close out the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface ridging will continue to weaken this evening as a
cold front approaches from the west. Much of the shower activity
working in from the west this evening will weaken as it encounters
the lingering ridging and some dry air. Most CAMs indicate a relative
min in precipitation from 00z to about 06z. Have backed off on
chances for showers this evening, but will continue to show a
gradual increase.
PoPs will steadily increase after 06z from west to east due
to an approaching jet streak over the Ohio Valley/Midwest.
Increasing upper divergence ahead of the jet will result in more
organized lift. There will also be a bit more organized thermal
forcing, especially along and east of the Hudson River. Showers
should become widespread early Saturday morning as a result and
then gradually push east of the area by midday as the cold
front shifts offshore. Most the of rainfall should be light
although a few briefly moderate showers cannot be ruled out.
Amounts are lightest west of the city, around a tenth or less.
Along and east of the Hudson River Corridor, including the NYC
metro, amounts range from around two to three tenths.
Improving conditions are expected late morning into the afternoon
with the likelihood for some sunshine as clouds thin/diminish.
However, the associated shortwave will be swinging across New
England late Saturday afternoon and evening. Partly to at times
mostly cloudy conditions look probable, but this should be
enough to allow temperatures to rise into the lower and middle
60s with some upper 60s possible in the NYC metro. IF there is
less cloud cover than currently forecast, highs could end up a
few degrees warmer given a strengthening downslope westerly
flow. A secondary cold front quickly moves through in the early
evening with the aforementioned shortwave axis. For now will
just show a slight chance PoP for interior S CT closest to the
vort max which is supported by the latest CAMs.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over the central states will
slowly build towards the region Saturday night into Sunday.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated Saturday night with lows
falling into the 30s inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and
lower 40s closer to the coast.
A large upper level low will be developing over southeast
Canada Saturday night into Sunday. This will result in
troughing persisting over the eastern US early next week. A
wave of low pressure is progged to develop over the southeast
on Sunday along with another shortwave swinging across New
England. These features will likely bring middle and upper level
clouds on Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies and dry
conditions. Highs will be a few degrees below normal in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper trough axis lifts out of the Northeast Sunday night
with a brief return to a more zonal flow across the northern
tier of the country. At the surface, weak high pressure builds
east into the area through Monday night. The next piece of
energy, located over the Northern Plains on Monday, will carve
out an upper trough across the Great Lakes on Ohio Valley states
Tuesday, and then on into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states
on Wednesday. The associated frontal system will impact the
area Wednesday into Wednesday night with increasing chances of
showers during this time. At this time, there is little
instability advertised in the guidance, so will keep the mention
of thunder out of the forecast at this time. System looks
progressive with rainfall amounts expected to be under an inch
at this time. High pressure then closes out this week. There are
some differences in the global models with the frontal timing
and the interaction with northern branch energy, but impacts
still look minimal. Thus, stayed very close to a consensus
forecast. So all in all, a relatively benign period with no
hazardous weather expected.
Temperatures will generally be at or just below seasonable
levels with the exception of some milder air mid week in a
strengthening southerly flow ahead of the approaching frontal
system. Even then, it won`t be much higher than normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moves offshore this evening as a cold front
approaches to the west. This front will move across the
terminals late tonight into Saturday morning. A secondary cold
front, or surface trough, will move across the terminals
Saturday afternoon.
MVFR ceilings prevail across the terminals this evening, with
the exception of KGON, which will be lowering to MVFR later in
the evening. Conditions lower to IFR overnight as light rain
showers develop. Timing of lowering conditions may be an hour or
two earlier than forecast. There is a low chance that a few
terminals may briefly lower to LIFR, however, with low
confidence have not included in the forecast. Conditions improve
back to VFR Saturday morning west, and during the afternoon
east.
SE winds become southerly this evening, and then SW late, and
westerly with the passage of the cold front. Then with the
passage of the secondary front/surface trough during the
afternoon winds become more WNW with gusts developing. There is
a chance that gusts will be around 25kt by late in the day.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD likely for timing of lowering conditions.
Uncertain with the timing of IFR overnight, and may be earlier.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday night: VFR. Winds NW 10-15G20-25kt.
Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon/early evening
mainly NYC metros/coast.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Showers becoming likely. S winds 10-15G20-25kt mainly
in the afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the ocean until 06z for seas around
5 ft. A cold front moves across the waters early Saturday
follow by a secondary cold front Saturday evening. High pressure
then builds Saturday night through Sunday. Winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels from late tonight through
Sunday given a relatively weak pressure gradient.
High pressure should then keep conditions at sub-advisory
levels through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build
back to SCA levels on Wednesday with the next low pressure and
associated cold front to approach.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW