000
FXUS61 KOKX 201148
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon into
the evening. High pressure then builds in through early next
week, then gives way to a frontal system on Wednesday. High
pressure then builds in again for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast generally on track with just some minor adjustments to
the forecast database to reflect current observations.
Otherwise, A cold front will approach the region today and
move across the area late this afternoon into this evening.
Ahead of the front, a pre- frontal trough will develop.
PoPs will steadily increase this morning from west to east as
showers continue to develop over NJ and move across the region.
Forecast guidance in good agreement that the shower activity
will become more widespread as it moves into and across the CWA.
Most the of rainfall should be light although a few brief
moderate showers cannot be ruled out. Rainfall amounts will
generally remain less than a quarter of an inch, except some
spots could see up to three tenths of an inch across
southeastern CT.
Improving conditions are expected late morning into the afternoon
with the likelihood for some sunshine as clouds thin/diminish. Best
chances will be west of NYC.
A pre-frontal trough over the area will keep the winds out of the W
or SW for much of the day. This should allow temperatures to rise
into the 60s for much of the area, with upper 60s to near 70
across portions of NE NJ.
The cold front moves across the area late this afternoon, shifting
the winds to the NW, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. A few
of the CAMs are showing some isolated showers with the frontal
passage late in the day. Chances for this are low and with the best
forcing north of the region, will leave any mention out of the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front continues to push across the area early this evening.
Any leftover isolated showers, should quickly come to an end. Behind
the front, expect mostly clear skies with lows falling into the 30s
inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and lower 40s closer to the
coast.
A large upper level low will be developing over southeast Canada
tonight into Sunday. This will result in troughing persisting over
the eastern US early next week. A wave of low pressure is progged to
develop over the southeast on Sunday along with another shortwave
swinging across New England. These features will likely bring middle
and upper level clouds on Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies
and dry conditions. Highs will be a few degrees below normal in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
Surface high pressure then builds into the region for Monday and
Monday night. Conditions will remain dry with highs on Monday in the
upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures will fall into the 30s Monday
night. Light winds and cold temperatures may result in some frosty
spots well north and west of NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A more zonal mid-level flow takes hold of the region by Tuesday with
surface high pressure in place during the day. The next piece of
energy embedded in a trough over the Great Lakes approaches the area
on Wednesday. A low pressure system develops and passes north of the
area pushing a cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. This brings the next chance for a round of rain for
the area. The surface low moves northeast of the area on Thursday
with high pressure building in from the west through the end of the
week making for a fairly tranquil period.
Temperatures will remain at or below average for the extended period
with highs each day in the middle 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough is moving across the terminals this morning. A
cold front will move across the terminals this afternoon. High
pressure builds in tonight.
MVFR/IFR ceilings prevail across the terminals this morning
with rain showers. There remains a low chance that a few
terminals may briefly lower to LIFR before 14Z. Conditions
expected to improve quickly to VFR by mid-morning for the
western terminals and during the afternoon for the eastern
terminals.
Light S winds become SW this morning. WInds may briefly become
more W by mid morning behind the surface trough. Winds expected
to shift back to the SW before the passage of the cold front
during the afternoon where winds become more WNW with gusts
developing. There is a chance that gusts will be around 25-30kt
by late in the day with the cold frontal passage. Gusts diminish
into the first half of the overnight period.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD possible for timing of category changes.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon/early evening mainly
NYC metros/coast.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Showers becoming likely. S winds 10-15G20-25kt mainly in
the afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front moves across the waters late today into this evening.
High pressure then builds Saturday night through Sunday. Winds and
seas are expected to remain below SCA levels given a relatively weak
pressure gradient.
High pressure should keep conditions at sub-advisory levels through
at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels on
Wednesday with the next low pressure and associated cold front to
approach.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW