000
FXUS61 KOKX 211426
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1026 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region early this week. A frontal
system impacts the area on Wednesday followed by high pressure
to close out the week. Another frontal system may impact the
area for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For this update primarily adjusted cloud cover for streaking
high to upper mid deck as cirrus moving in from the SW. Expect
mainly cloudy skies into this afternoon, with northeastern areas
taking a few hours longer to get into denser cirrus. The region
will be in the right rear quadrant of an anticyclonic curved
jet stream which leads to an increase in divergence aloft, and
with that more clouds for this afternoon and early this evening.
Cooler and dry conditions into this afternoon despite clouds,
which will be aloft. A large upper level low over southeast
Canada will result in broad troughing across the eastern US. A
southern stream shortwave along the base of the trough will
develop a wave of low pressure along the southeast coast through
the day. This low will pass far enough south keeping its
moisture field well offshore, however there should be enough
middle and upper level moisture to result in a mostly cloudy
day. With the colder airmass working into the region and the
mostly cloudy skies, expect temperatures today to only be in the
50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The wave of low pressure pushes east tonight into the Atlantic.
Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast leading to mostly
clear skies tonight. Another chilly night is in store with lows in
the middle to upper 30s inland and lower 40s closer to the coast. A
usual colder spots across the CWA may see temperatures fall close to
to even below freezing. Will include some patchy frost in the
forecast for these locations.
With surface high pressure over the region Monday and Tuesday,
expect sunny conditions both days with temperatures on Monday in the
the upper 50s and lower 60s. On Tuesday, temperatures will be
slightly warmer, mainly in the lower and middle 60s. Clear skies and
light winds will allow Monday nights lows to fall into the 30s and
40s. Once again, some patchy frost will remain possible early
Tuesday morning well NW of the city and in the LI Pine Barrens.
The pattern starts to change Tuesday night as high pressure moves
east of the region and a cold front approaches from the west. Expect
an increase in cloud cover. There are some model timing issues with
just how quickly the front moves into the area and stuck with a
general model consensus. Will include some slight chance POPS
north and west of NYC for now late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mid-level trough swings through the area on Wednesday allowing for
the development and subsequent translation of a surface frontal
system. The center of the low looks to pass north of the area with
the cold front pushing through Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
This will bring a chance of showers to the area. While not included
in the forecast at this time due to low confidence, embedded
thunderstorms can not be ruled out with any convective elements
within the precipitation.
High pressure looks to quickly build in from the west Wednesday
night into Thursday and will remain in place to close out the end of
the week with gradual upper level ridging building in as well.
Models struggle to consistently handle the following energy upstream
of the ridge but all have some pieces of energy approaching the area
from the west into the weekend. This may result in some unsettled
conditions that are handled with a chance for showers.
Temperatures will remain at or below average for the extended period
with highs each day in the middle 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west today. A surface trough
sets up across the area this afternoon.
VFR. NW wind at less than 10 kt early this morning. Winds back
to the W this morning and increase 10-15kt G15-20kt by afternoon.
Coastal locations may back to the WSW if not SW. Confidence in
a true seabreeze is low due to the strength of the westerly
winds in the mixed layer.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional today.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday-Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers. S winds 10-15G20-25kt in the
afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.
Thursday: VFR. Gusty NW flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A relatively weak pressure gradient will remain over the area waters
today and continue through Tuesday. This will result in Sub-SCA
conditions. The pressure gradient tightens with slowly increasing
winds Tuesday night into Wednesday, increasing the likelihood
of SCA conditions across all ocean waters during this period.
Seas on a southerly flow build up to around 5 ft on Wednesday. A
cold front then passes through, and SCA conds will still be
likely on the ocean Wednesday night. Offshore winds diminish on
Thursday along with subsiding seas. Sub-advisory conditions are
therefore anticipated by the end of the day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...BC/JE
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW