okx-afd on 2024-04-25

000
FXUS61 KOKX 251152
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --Strong high pressure building in today will remain over the
region into Saturday. The high will give way to an approaching
warm front Saturday night. The front will move into the area on
Sunday and may stall over Connecticut and Long Island early next
week as weak high pressure noses down the New England coast.
A cold front will approach on Tuesday and move through Tuesday
night. Another cold front may approach on Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will build from the northwest, with a chilly air
mass moving in. Mid level clouds over most of the area should
scatter this afternoon. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees
below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --With the strong Canadian air mass settling over the region
tonight, with near calm to light winds, and clear skies,
temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
Freezing temperatures are expected across the interior zones.
With the aforementioned conditions have a little more confidence
that freezing conditions will occur tonight, and have issued a
freeze watch for late tonight into early Friday morning for
portions of northeastern New Jersey, into portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley, and across interior southern Connecticut, and
coastal New London.

The high remains over the region Friday and Friday night with
some modification to the air mass as temperatures remain
around 5 degrees below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Model guidance still forecasts an omega block over the eastern
CONUS, with its western leg over the central states and
multiple shortwaves lifting NE through the Plains states and
upper Great Lakes, its eastern leg over the Canadian Maritimes
and adjacent Atlantic, and an upper ridge over the East. The
first of the shortwaves lifting through the Plains and Great
Lakes will send a warm front toward the area Sat night with some
showers that should then move into the area on Sunday, then
stall as the eastern leg of the block over the Atlantic
strengthens, with low pressure well out to sea and high pressure
nosing down the New England coast in the mid level confluence
in its wake. NBM captures the details well and was used through
the period.

After a cool Saturday with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s, a
warmup should begin on Sunday especially for the NYC metro area,
lower Hudson Valley, and NE NJ. Mon should be the warmest of
these days, with highs in the lower 80s from NYC north/west, and
into the 70s most elsewhere except for ern Long Island and the
SE CT coast, where highs should remain in the 60s. Temps on Tue
are uncertain and could be a few degrees cooler than fcst if the
western Atlantic low and maritime high pressure in its wake
exert more influence.

The omega block should start to break down on Tue, with the
upper ridge weakening and a cold front approaching from the
west, bringing the chance for showers and tstms. The front will
pass through Tue night, and could be followed by another cold
front on Wed.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Strong high pressure will build in through the end of the week.

VFR. N-NE winds still over 10 kt at some terminals should veer
more to the NE and diminish after daybreak. Winds then veer
around to the S/SE in the late morning or afternoon at speeds 10
kt or less, then become light tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Only slight chance of a shower Sat
night into early Sunday morning.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Gusty NE winds on the ocean waters early this morning will
gradually diminish through the day as high pressure builds over
the waters. Small craft advisory conditions on the ocean
waters will subside by late morning, and an advisory remains in
effect. Then winds and seas will remain below advisory levels
through Friday night. On the non ocean waters winds and seas
remain below advisory levels today through Friday night.

Quiet this weekend into early next week with winds/seas below
advisory criteria. Ocean seas could reach 4 ft Sunday night
and again Mon night. Fog may also become possible early next
week beginning Sunday night as more humid air traverses colder
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     CTZ005>008-012.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002-103.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET