000
FXUS61 KOKX 290037
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
837 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front lifts north and east through the area tonight,
followed by a weak trough or cold front late tonight. The
boundary returns as a back door cold front on Monday, before a
frontal wave moves out of the Ohio Valley Tuesday, passing to
the the south and east Tuesday night into Wednesday. High
pressure builds in for the second half of the week, followed by
another frontal system over the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers along a warm front will continue to drop down from the
NW tonight with the best chance being across the Lower Hudson
Valley. Instability is marginal and mainly north and west of the
NYC metro, where there could be an isolated thunderstorm. Elsewhere,
showers will be scattered and generally light this evening.
The warm front will eventually lift north and east of the area
tonight. Behind the front, temperatures have managed to climb
into the 70s with a mild SW.
Showers will gradual dissipate through the evening, ending
before midnight for most locations.
Temperatures tonight will run above normal by about 10 degrees,
with lows in the 50s and low 60s. Patchy fog is possible overnight
into early Monday morning, and could be dense in a few locales.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Amplified ridging aloft remains over the Eastern US on Monday,
with a surface high sitting off the Southeast coast. The warm
front that meandered thru will return as a cold front that
attempts to slowly backdoor the region thru the day.
Before the fropa, NW flow that developed behind the surface
trough should aid deeper mixing than over the weekend and help
lead to summerlike levels of warmth for parts of the area.
Still some uncertainty in the temperature forecast as timing of
a back door cold front and lingering cloud cover will be key
factors in just how warm the BL can get. Should the front
advance a bit quicker, temperatures in and around NYC may be a
bit cooler than currently forecast. Blended in some of the
latest guidance that indicates a slightly quicker fropa across
eastern areas, resulting in cooler highs here. West of the
Hudson and away from maritime influence, temperatures should get
into the low 80s by lunchtime, likely topping out in the mid
80s before falling back late day. Potential continues for parts
of urban NE NJ to get into the upper 80s, or near record heat
for late April. See Climate section below for records data.
The back door cold front advances south and west into the
evening hours, and conditions should quickly cool back into the
60s everywhere by mid evening. Low clouds likely develops in
the easterly flow behind the front, and will need to monitor for
fog potential overnight into Tuesday AM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Points*
*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period
followed by a slight warmup for the week`s end.
*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and
thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area during
the period.
Upper ridging along the eastern seaboard weakens while moving out
into the Atlantic on Tuesday. This will allow weakening low pressure
over the Ohio Valley to track east along the front, passing to the
south and east of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best
forcing looks to reside north across the Mid Hudson Valley and
central New England. Rainfall chances have trended down with this
event due to blocking across the western Atlantic. An isolated
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out Tuesday night. With the low tracking
to the south Wednesday, some light rain and/or drizzle could linger
during the first half of the day, especially eastern areas. Ridging
returns for the second half of the week and the trend here has been
more amplified and slower. Thus, the remainder of the week looks to
be dry. Another upper trough then lifts north out of the
intermountain west on Friday, then up into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. This will send another weakening frontal system into the
area Saturday into Sunday.
As for temperatures, an easterly flow on Tuesday following a
backdoor cold front will return highs closer to normal. A gradual
warmup can then be expected for the rest of the week with
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal along the coast, but to 5
to 10 degrees inland. Chance of rain and cloud cover Saturday and
Sunday knocks temps down a bit.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak trough approaches this evening and crosses through
overnight. A back door cold front moves through Monday
afternoon.
Generally VFR through the TAF period. Showers are moving through
the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast New Jersey, and southwestern
Connecticut, and will move southeast through the evening. There
may be brief lowering of visibility as the heavier showers move
through, between 3-5 SM until 02Z for more western terminals
and until 04Z for more eastern terminals. The probability of
thunder has decreased, but still cannot be totally ruled out.
So, although thunder has been taken out of all TAFs, an isolated
thunderstorm is still possible (for the same timeframe as
previously stated for visibility). Thereafter, conditions remain
dry or mainly dry through the forecast period. There is a low
chance for fog to develop late tonight, mainly at outlying
terminals, but should generally be MVFR.
Light SE to SW winds 5 to around 10 kt continue, shifting to a
general SW to W direction after 03Z. Outlying terminals may go
light and variable tonight. Winds then become W to NW late
tonight with trough passage, then shift to the N, and eventually
E to SE by mid to late Monday afternoon as high pressure builds
in from the northeast. Wind speeds remain around 10 kt or less.
There may be a sea breeze that briefly develops in the
afternoon for KJFK, KBDR, KISP, and KGON. The sea breeze will
be short lived for more eastern terminals as the winds shift to
the E to SE in these locations first.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief reduction in visibility to 5 SM through 04Z possible.
Sea breeze development Monday afternoon possible for KJFK and
less likely for KLGA. Timing is uncertain, especially with high
pressure building in from the east shifting winds to the E to NE
later in the afternoon and early evening hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: MVFR, then VFR. NW/N winds under 10 kt AM,
shifting to E/SE winds in the aft/eve. Slight chance of PM
shra/tsra.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower conds. PM SHRA potential, w/ slight TSRA
potential for NW terminals. E/NE winds.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower conds. E/NE winds.
Thursday thru Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through late week
under a weak pressure gradient regime.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for Monday, April 29:
EWR: 91/1974
BDR: 86/2017
NYC: 89/1974
LGA: 88/2017*
JFK: 85/2017
ISP: 85/2017
*Also occurred in previous years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
CLIMATE...