663
FXUS61 KOKX 021938
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
338 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front passes offshore this evening followed by high
pressure building down the New England coast through Friday. The
high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system
approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the
region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front
passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region
and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold
front approaches for Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front will finally pass through coastal areas early this
evening, shunting any lingering low clouds/patchy fog along the
coast offshore. Behind it, ridging builds in both aloft and at
the surface through Friday. The surface high will build down
from eastern Canada and along the New England coast during this
time. As it does, NE winds will strengthen a bit tonight along
with some low-level moisture working back in from along the New
England coast. This will allow for partly to mostly cloudy
skies to move in from the NE for the second half of the night,
but this should be short-lived as some drier mixes into the
area on Friday.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest
across the NYC metro. Highs then warm up into the upper 50s and
lower 60s along the coast, and 65-70 inland. This is slightly
above normal.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure gradually retreats offshore during this time as a
slow moving frontal system approaches from the SW. This will
allow for increasing clouds Friday night into Saturday. ESE
winds will continue during this time with temperatures remaining
several degrees below normal, in fact it will be cooler for
inland area versus the previous day due to increase in clouds
and onshore flow. Warm advection could bring a few showers in
late in the day, mainly north and west of NYC.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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An upper level ridge axis shifts offshore late Saturday night into
early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal into early next week. A
longwave upper trough across eastern Canada amplifies into the
northeast Tuesday and moves offshore by Wednesday as another upper
ridge builds to the west of the area and moves into the region,
while beginning to flatten, Wednesday. The upper flow again become
nearly zonal as a tough becomes sheared out across the northern
plains and Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the
surface one frontal system slowly approaches from Saturday night
through Sunday, while slowly weakening, as the system moves into the
upper ridge. Another system passes well to the north with its cold
front passing through the region Monday. The trend for these systems
Saturday night through Monday as be slower as the upper ridge over
the western Atlantic remains highly amplified. The stalled frontal
boundary to the south begins to track north as a warm front Monday
night and is expected to the north during Wednesday. The area
remains warm sectored Thursday as low pressure over the northern
plains become sheared. Temperatures will be near to below normal
Saturday night into Sunday, then average above normal Sunday night
through Thursday, with the warmest days being Wednesday and
Thursday. Generally followed the NBM guidance, and for the days with
higher temperature spreads, and potential for warmer conditions
blended the NBM and 75th percentile. There is still a possibility
that a few locations could set record high minimum temperatures
Tuesday morning.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Generally VFR across all terminals through the TAF period. However,
there may still be some brief IFR or MVFR ceilings along the
immediate coastal portions of Long Island this evening as a stubborn
stratus deck remains in close proximity to coastal areas.  Also,
later tonight and early on Friday additional stratus may work its
way back off the coastal waters. Best timing for stratus late
tonight is 10-14z Friday and have included a Tempo group across
eastern terminals but this may change depending on the extent of the
marine layer overnight. Stratus is not expected to be as widespread
as previous nights.

Winds will shift to the west this evening 10-15kt with gusts to 20
kt possible, even across coastal areas. Gusts diminish overnight.
W winds will shift to N/NE and then E by Friday morning less than 10
kt. SE winds are expected by midday on Friday around 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely for timing of wind shifts and associated wind
speed.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18z Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR
conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE
winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Patchy fog could linger into early this evening for portions of
the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet, but this should be
short lived as northerly winds bring in drier air behind a cold
front. NE winds behind the cold front later this evening
increase 10-15 kt by morning with gusts below 25 kt. Winds will
then gradually diminish on Friday. A weak pressure gradient then
maintains sub-advisory conditions across the waters Friday
night through the middle of next week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW