595
FXUS61 KOKX 092145
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
545 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A series of weak waves of low pressure move across the northeast
tonight through the weekend. High pressure returns on Monday
before moving offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the
region during the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast remains on track this evening. Have adjusted PoPs down
a bit for the first portion of the evening as lingering low
level dry air will slow the progression of the rain reaching the
ground. The low levels will moisten as moisture advection
increases after 00z.
Low pressure will travel along a stalled frontal boundary to our
south tonight. Rain should become widespread overnight. The rain
may be briefly moderate at times. Rainfall amounts through early
Friday morning may average around one quarter to one third of an
inch. Temperatures should average closer to normal with lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cloudy skies with periods of light rain continuing, especially
during the morning. There are some models hinting at some drier
conditions possibly by afternoon, however with enough low level
moisture in place, even if the steady rain comes to an end, we
will probably be left with a light mist or drizzle. Overall,
still looking at a damp and unsettled day. The cloudy skies and
continued easterly flow will keep temperatures in the 50s.
The last wave of low pressure passes further south and east
Friday night. Winds become more northeasterly to northerly with
some drying starting to take place. Any rain will become more
intermittent, and eventually after midnight, start coming to an
end. Total rainfall amounts will total up to a half inch or so
for much of the area, with lesser amounts further northeast. NW
sections of Orange County may receive up to 3/4 of an inch.
Temperatures should be near normal with middle 40s to around 50
for lows.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*Key Points*
*Unsettled conditions will continue this weekend. While not a
washout, a few showers are possible, especially Saturday evening
into Sunday.
*Dry conditions currently expected Monday with high pressure nearby.
*Another low may impact the region Tuesday into the middle of the
week, but timing, track, and amplitude are all uncertain at this
time.
*Cool temperatures this weekend should trend close to seasonable
levels next week.
A broad upper level trough/upper low will continue to reside
over eastern North America this weekend. One shortwave will pass
to our east Saturday morning which should leave behind a brief
period of subsidence. Another shortwave quickly follows late
Saturday night Sunday. Low pressure may pass offshore ahead of
the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back over the
northeast. There is some question surrounding how much surface
ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher
probabilities of showers across the western half of the area.
The atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs
both days will only be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble
guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively
flat ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also
linger into a portion of Tuesday. Uncertainty increases for the
rest of the period as a southern stream shortwave moves out of
the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards the east coast the middle
of next week. An associated frontal system/low pressure should
evolve somewhere near the Middle Atlantic or northeast, but the
modeling has disagreed in the last several cycles. Feel the NBM
PoPs are too aggressive this far out with the degree of
uncertainty and with the potential that some of the system may
be triggered by ongoing convection, which is usually not
resolved well. Will hold PoPs at chance late Tuesday into
Thursday. It is unlikely this period will be a complete washout.
We should be able to refine the timing of precip, if any, in
the coming days as the models become better resolved.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A wave of low pressure tracks along a stalled boundary over the
Mid Atlantic into tomorrow.
VFR thru early this evening. Conditions deteriorate after 00Z
as showers expand in coverage and cigs lower, becoming MVFR for
western terminals by 3Z, and potentially to IFR toward daybreak
Friday and for the AM push, particularly western and coastal
terminals. Likely little improvement until early Friday
afternoon with intermittent showers persisting thru then.
Additional showers may continue into Friday evening, though
coverage and placement is lower confidence at this time.
A general northerly flow around 10 kt today with occasional
gusts toward 20 kt which should decrease as the afternoon
progresses. Flow shifts southerly or southeasterly late this
afternoon as the low approaches to the south and any sea breezes
push inland, likely thru 22Z or so. Direction backs easterly
tonight and 20 to 25 kt gusts return overnight as the low tracks
closer. ENE flow 10-15G20kt persists thru Friday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional 20 kt gusts possible this afternoon.
Timing of S/SE flow into this evening may be off by an hour or two.
Timing of lower category cigs and vsbys, as well as arrival of
showers, may be off by a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday PM: Mainly MVFR with showers possible. ENE G20kt.
Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.
Tuesday: VFR. SW G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
An easterly flow is expected to increase on the area waters
tonight. Small craft wind gusts develop on the ocean and NY
Harbor with more marginal small craft gusts which may be more
occasional for the remaining non-ocean waters for tonight. By
Friday the winds are forecast to slowly diminish as they
gradually back more to the NE and N into Friday night. Seas are
also expected to increase to 5-6 ft. Small crafts are expected
for the western and central ocean zones through Friday night for
lingering seas. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels
this weekend through early next week. Winds may increase Tuesday
towards 20 kt, but think they remain below 25 kt at the present
time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides continue to run high from the new moon
earlier this week. A persistent E flow will also aid in keeping
water levels high.
Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding, with localized
moderate flooding is possible for the more vulnerable spots of
southern Nassau, with advisories spread along the northwestern
and much of the southwestern LI Sound coastal zones. Advisories
are also in effect for this evening/night for Southern Queens,
Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Hudson in NE NJ.
Statements for tonight have also been issued for SW and SE
Suffolk as some spots may touch minor benchmarks.
Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding is likely for
the Friday night high tide cycle. Given the persistence of the
forecast, E flow, and only slight decrease in astronomical tide
levels, have issued additional statements and advisories. An
advisory is now in effect for the south shore back bays, lower
NY Harbor, and western Sound along the SW CT and Westchester
coast. Statements have been issued for southern Suffolk, NW
Suffolk, N Nassau, and N Queens.
E flow continues into Saturday, but astronomical tide levels
begin to fall. The most vulnerable locations of the south shore
back bays could see another round of minor flooding with the
Saturday night high tide. Most other locations may just touch or
fall short.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
Friday for CTZ009.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 4 AM EDT
Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
Friday for NYZ071-078.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 4 AM EDT
Saturday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074-
075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday
for NYZ074-075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
Friday for NYZ176-177.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006-
106-108.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday
for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday
for ANZ338-350.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...