571
FXUS61 KOKX 121954
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal system to the west will dissipate while an upper level
disturbance passes east of New England, with surface high
pressure remaining in its wake tonight through Monday. A warm
front will pass to the north Monday afternoon and night.
Low pressure will then bring rain to the area for mid week.
Another low pressure system may impact the region next weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Rain band that had been over the NYC area has dissipated, with
only a couple of isolated leftover showers seen on radar.
Shortwave trough rotating around a departing closed low along
with sfc convergence is producing sct showers across parts of CT
and have left them in the forecast through this evening. After
these pass skies should clear across most of the area, though
mid level clouds with the dissipating frontal sys to the west
may hang around NYC and points west. Low temps tonight will
range from near 50 in NYC to the 40s elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Rising heights aloft and sfc high pressure should lead to a
milder day on Mon, with highs reaching the lower 70s in NE NJ
and rising into the 60s elsewhere on a S flow, with sea breeze
enhancement along the coast during the afternoon. A shortwave
trough riding atop the upper ridge associated with a warm front
passing to the north should bring an increase in clouds and may
trigger some late day end evening showers mainly inland,
followed by clearing skies later Mon night. With the area in the
warm sector lows Mon night should range from the upper 40s
across SE CT and parts of eastern Long Island, to the 50s
elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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An upr low emerging onto the Plains will traverse the country
and reach the local area by the middle of the week. Height falls
as early as Tue aftn could trigger a few shwrs, particularly
nwrn zones, along with a chc of tstms as well.

As a weak sfc low approaches Tue ngt and passes offshore on
Wed, a more stratiform rain is expected, with the CWA on the nrn
and wrn side of the low. Robust convection to the south could
rob some of the moisture, but blended probs are high for pcpn,
and moisture transport vectors do show at least some deeper
moisture advecting in.

Sly flow will moderate temps on Tue, especially the ern 2/3 of
the cwa, then flow comes around to the NE behind the low on Wed.
Temps lower on Wed with the rain and clouds, then a E-NE flow
remains locked in right thru next weekend. Cooler temps Long
Island and the immediate CT coast. The NBM was used for temps.

There are some model timing differences on Thu with the ECMWF
slower to eject the upr low. The GFS has ridging building in
quickly and a dry day. Stuck with the blended approach and only
have slight chcs in the fcst. Dry on Fri with weak high pres
along the E coast, then the next sys arrives for the weekend.
There remain timing differences, with the GFS continuing to be
the quicker moving sys, similar to the model runs 24 hours ago.
The NBM was followed, with the best chcs remaining on Sat.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Weak high pressure will be over the terminals through tonight
before pushing offshore on Monday.

Conditions will continue to improve to VFR this afternoon. There
may be an isolated shower across Southern CT this afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR prevails tonight through Monday. The only
exception is at HPN where some brief IFR or LIFR is possible
late tonight into early Monday morning.

Light S-SE winds will become SW late this afternoon and evening.
Wind speeds will be less than 10 kt. Winds diminish tonight,
becoming light and/or variable. SW winds increase after 12z
Monday, becoming S in the afternoon 10-15 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR could linger 1-2 hours longer this afternoon at KLGA and
KEWR.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon-Night: VFR. Gusts 15-20 kt possible in the
afternoon near the coast.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. MVFR or lower
possible in mainly afternoon showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt
near the coast late.

Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt
near the coast in the evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in showers. Slight chance of a
thunderstorm.

Wednesday night: Chance of showers with improvement to VFR
possible. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 20 kt possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Seas at 44025 are flirting with 5 ft. With these higher seas
only on the outer fringe of the coastal ocean waters have not
issued SCA. Better chance for more widespread 5-ft seas will
come late day Mon into Mon evening S flow ramps up to 15-20 kt.

Mrgnl SCA winds and seas also possible on the ocean Tue with
S flow, then 4-8 ft seas on the ocean Wed. Winds on the
protected waters are progged to remain blw SCA lvls attm.

Lingering seas and NE winds close to SCA lvls on the ocean Thu,
and mrgnl winds elsewhere. Winds and seas blw SCA lvls Fri and
possibly on Sat.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BG