518
FXUS61 KOKX 171435
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1035 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds in from Northern New England through
tonight. High pressure generally remains in control through the
middle of next week, gradually giving way to an approaching
cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure offshore, southeast of Cape Cod, continues to
gradually moves away from the area today. High pressure centered
over eastern Canada was ridging down along the coast behind the
low, allowing for some clearing, especially of the lower levels,
as mixing has increased.
Shortwave ridging over the area will continue to allow the high
to build into the area from southeastern Canada through the
day. This will promote a drying of the column, though a
continued onshore northeast flow will likely allow cloud cover
to persist much of the day. Temperatures will be seasonable with
highs in the low to middle 70s.
Cloud cover and dry conditions will persist tonight as high
pressure continues to allow for a northeast flow, though it will
be weakening. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure looks to remain in control on Saturday with
a weakening frontal system approaching from the west. As the
cold front approaches during the day, some widely scattered rain
showers will be possible for extreme western portions of the
area. Much of the energy associated with the shortwave trough
and frontal system looks to consolidate in a low pressure system
that develops well south of the area over the Southeast US and
Carolina Coast into Saturday night and Sunday.
The high pressure remains in control through the weekend with
the low passing far enough to the south as to not have much of,
if any, impact to the area. More pronounced mid-level ridging
approaches the area from the west Sunday and into Sunday night,
which strengthens the surface high pressure over the area. This
should allow for further drying and a reduction in cloud cover
through the weekend.
A persistent E/NE flow through the weekend will prevent
temperatures from rising too much. Highs Saturday will be in the
middle to upper 60s with highs Sunday warming up a bit into the
middle 60s to middle 70s. Lows each night will be in the 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*Key Points*
*Mainly dry and above normal for the period.
*Late week cold frontal passage, preceded by showers and
thunderstorms.
A relatively quiet period is expected with ridging both aloft and at
the surface to start the week. It will also be warm, especially away
from the immediate coast where an onshore flow will keep it closer
to normal. The warmest day will likely be Thursday ahead of the cold
front, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The potential is there
for larger departures.
A southern branch upper trough lifts NE out of the Great Basin early
next week, interacting with some northern branch short wave energy.
There are some timing issues with the associated frontal system due
to this interaction. A cold frontal passage is expected sometime
Thursday, preceded by a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Primarily followed the NBM, but 00Z global models so some slowing of
the system and tried to reflect that trend. While there is also a
chance of convection Wednesday, the better chance looks to be
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure becomes nearly stationary well southeast of the
area, while high pressure builds along the New England coast.
VFR through this evening. MVFR ceilings will return late tonight,
first across the eastern terminals during the early morning hours,
and then around 14-15Z Saturday for the NYC and Lower Hudson
terminals. Timing will likely need to be refined.
NE winds 10-15kt with gusts G15-20kt into early afternoon. Winds
then likely veer to the E/SE at 10 kt or less later in the afternoon
as the surface ridge axis builds into the area. Wind become light
and variable tonight and then NE around 5 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts at KJFK and KLGA might be only occasional. Shift to SE may be
off by an hour or two.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: MVFR likely. Slight chance of showers, mainly N and W
of the city terminals. Patchy light rain and/or drizzle
possible as well.
Sunday...Chance of MVFR in the morning, then VFR. MVFR or lower
could persist at the eastern terminals.
Monday-Tuesday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor changes were made to the winds and gusts across the
waters, and the SCA continues on the ocean waters as waves will
remain at or above 5 feet through the day. Waves gradually
diminish below SCA thresholds this evening for the western ocean
zone though the central and eastern ocean zones will take more
time to drop below SCA threshold. All waters drop below SCA
conditions by Saturday and remain below through the middle of
next week as high pressure remains in control.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/DW
MARINE...MET/DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW