852
FXUS61 KOKX 232018
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
418 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front slowly pushes offshore tonight. Weak high
pressure will otherwise be in control through Saturday with a
dry secondary cold frontal passage Friday evening. A weak
frontal system moves through the area Saturday night. High
pressure then briefly returns on Sunday before a series of
frontal systems impact the area during the first half of next
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front over the NW portion of the forecast area will slowly
drift east tonight. Overall mechanical lift doesn`t look all that
impressive, however with SBCAPEs ranging approx 500-1500 J/kg into
early evening, cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm to pop
up right along the cold front as implied by some of the CAMs.
Thunder threat should subside shortly after sundown, with a
slight chance for another shower or two overnight across the
southern zones. Light winds and sufficient low level moisture
probably bring patchy/areas of fog for coastal areas - mainly
over eastern LI and SE CT. Low temperatures mostly in the 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The cold front washes out just offshore in the morning with maybe
another weak cold front or trough pushing in here during the
afternoon. Much drier however with this boundary, so no showers
anticipated with it and expecting partly to mostly sunny conditions.
Based on 850mb temps, an even blend of the deterministic and
50th percentile NBM was used for high temperatures. Highs
ranging from the upper 80s in the NE NJ urban corridor to the
mid-upper 70s along the south-facing coasts for eastern LI and
SE CT. Dewpoints will be lower, so not as muggy as it was today.


Dry weather continues into Friday night. Light winds and a clear sky
should allow for some radiational cooling across the Pine
Barrens and parts of the interior. Low in the low 50s for these
spots, ranging up to the mid 60s in NYC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key points:

* Above normal temperatures on the weekend transition to near
  or slightly above normal Monday through Wednesday. The end of
  the week cools down a bit.

* Unsettled Monday-Wednesday with multiple frontal systems
  affecting the area.

Overall, there is decent agreement in the upper patter during
this period with some timing issues, especially with the frontal
system closing out the period next Thursday. NBM was closely
followed with some minor adjustments made based on noted trends
with the 12Z operational suite.

Before then though, the period start starts off with warm
ridging aloft and temperatures on the warm side, especially away
from the immediate coast with highs ranging from the mid 70s to
lower 80s. The south shore of LI will be notably cooler due to
a southerly flow off the much cooler ocean waters. A weak
frontal system passes through the area Saturday night with
mainly a chance of showers. Much of the guidance shows a weak
mid level shortwave associated with this system, but there is
quite a bit of dry air to be overcome and instability is weak at
best.

Another area of deepening low pressure emerges from the Plains
on Sunday, tracking up through the Midwest and Great Lakes
Monday into Tuesday. This will send a warm front into the area
Monday into Monday night with numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms. A weak cold frontal passage on Tuesday does not
look active due to deep-layered dry air. There is the potential
for a more robust piece of energy dropping down from the Great
Lakes on Wednesday along with another cold front. Cooler air
follows at the end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak front pushes through tonight.

An isolated SHRA this evening otherwise...mainly VFR. There is a
chance for some MVFR conditions for eastern areas tonight (KJFK,
KISP, KBDR and KGON), mainly after 03Z, but this is more likely to
be patchy fog rather than stratus.

Winds shift S to SW around 10kt this evening before becoming light
and variable tonight (mainly north). On Friday winds become onshore
S-SW around 10 kt by 15z-16z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected outside of patchy fog
along the coast overnight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18z Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Chance of afternoon/evening showers and possibly a tstm,
with MVFR cond possible.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with MVFR cond
possible.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the forecast waters today
through Monday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight through the middle
of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW