947 FXUS61 KOKX 241757 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 157 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control through tonight. A weak frontal system moves through the area Saturday night into Sunday. A series of frontal systems impact the area during the first half of next week. An upper level disturbance may impact the area towards the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... The forecast is mainly on track. Only adjustment needed was to lower the cloud cover over the southern zones for the remainder of the morning. Weak high pressure will be in control today with mostly sunny conditions. A very weak cold front or trough will push into the forecast area late today into this evening without much of any consequence. Temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals, ranging in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper ridging approaches from the Great Lakes tonight and moves across the area Saturday and begins to weaken. With the slower movement of systems in the northern stream precipitation with a weak incoming frontal system will be delayed as the global guidance is now indicating, along with the NBM. A warm front passes to the north late Saturday into Saturday night with a slight chance of showers. The area will then be warm sectored with the system`s cold front slowly moving east Sunday. Much of the area will be dry with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms inland as these areas destabilize and with weak lift and convergence in the east to southeast flow. Temperatures remain above normal levels tonight through Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key points: * Above normal temperatures on Sunday transition to near or slightly above normal Monday through Wednesday. The end of the week cools down a bit. * Unsettled Monday-Wednesday with multiple frontal systems affecting the area. Upper level ridging just to our west starts out this period. The ridge axis crosses Sunday night. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure over the Canadian maritimes retreats farther into the northwestern Atlantic. Over the Great Lakes region, low pressure strengthens as it heads into southeastern Canada. An old frontal boundary attached to this parent low will move north as a warm front. Monday night should be mostly dry for the entire area, with just a slight chance for showers for the western third of the forecast area as the warm front moves toward the region. Better chances for precipitation on Monday as the warm front advances. The warm front does not look like it moves through until the first half of Monday night, which will then be followed quickly by the associated cold front. Some lingering showers for eastern areas Tuesday morning with the departing front, and showers start to enter the forecast area from the west with the next front in the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected. A cutoff low dives south from south Central Canada and affect the may affect the area as early as Wednesday morning or as late as Thursday given which model you look at. Followed NBM closely given uncertainty during this time frame. Temperatures on Monday will be at or just below normal thanks to clouds and rain. Tuesday will be a few degrees above normal thanks to more in the way of sun, with cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ VFR through the TAF period. W-SW winds except S-SW near the coast. Winds light and variable tonight (mainly N). N winds Sat morning becoming S-SE on Saturday. Uncertainty remains high as to how far inland any sea breeze can get. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible for sea breeze timing and location. Most likely moving through KJFK, but low potential to move through other terminals. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18z Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Morning IFR/MVFR possible coastal terminals...otherwise VFR. Monday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with MVFR cond possible. Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with MVFR cond possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the forecast waters today through Sunday night. A complex frontal system that impacts the waters Monday into Tuesday may allow for wind gusts of near 25 kt on the coastal waters late Monday into Monday night. Waves on the ocean waters build to 4 to 5 ft late Monday night, but quickly diminish by early Tuesday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... A frontal system will impact the area Monday into Monday night, potentially bringing several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall. There is a great deal of uncertainty with where the axis of heavy rain will fall, however the highest chances will be for the higher terrain north and west of NYC. The Weather Prediction Center has placed most of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with areas north and west of NYC in a slight risk. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Light winds becoming SW 5-10 kt today, and NE winds becoming S 5 to 10 kt Saturday along with 1 ft 9s southerly swell should keep the rip current risk low through Saturday. This is also supported by latest RCMOS at area beaches. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...IRD MARINE...JP/MET HYDROLOGY...JP/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...