111
FXUS61 KOKX 281729
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
129 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts or troughs will shift through the region
through Thursday. High pressure then build in from Friday into
Saturday night. A weakening front will pass through on Sunday,
with weak high pressure returning on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Sunshine above scattered cu prevails this afternoon with the
warmest day of the week expected across the region. Forecast
remains on track.
A cold front moves offshore this morning, then a surface trough and
mid level shortwave approach this afternoon and pass through
tonight. Remaining dry through tonight, but still a slight chance of
late afternoon or early evening a shower or thunderstorm over parts
of Orange County. Turning breezy this afternoon with a WSW flow.
With this wind direction, mostly sunny conditions, and 850mb
temperatures 10-12C, went close to the 50th percentile NBM with some
local adjustments. Highs 80-85 for most spots. This is around 10
degrees above normal. Low temperatures will be above normal as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front approaches on Wednesday with a weak low pressure center
forming along it with the help of cyclonic flow aloft. The front and
low pass through late in the day into the first half of the night.
The morning should be dry, but scattered showers are anticipated
thereafter with the best chances occurring with the passage of the
front. With enough CAPE and steepening lapse rates up through the
mid levels due to the cold pool aloft, a few rumbles of thunder will
also be possible until early evening.
Cyclonic flow aloft continues on Thursday as the 500mb longwave
pattern amplifies. This will keep the threat of showers in the
forecast. Although conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates will
be present again, CAPE will be lower this time around. Have
therefore decided to leave thunder out of the forecast. High
temperatures will be closer to normal, in the 70-75 degree range.
The upper trough axis is progged be over us Friday morning and to
the east of the forecast area by the end of the day. It should be a
dry day with just a slight chance of a morning shower east of the
city. Highs a degree or two warmer than on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level ridge will be moving over the area, while downstream
blocking develops over the western Atlantic. This should help
maintain sfc high pressure over the area from Fri night into Sat
night, then cause an approaching frontal system to weaken on
Sunday, with only slight chance PoP forecast for that time frame.
The Atlantic block does not look very strong, so weak ridging aloft
should return on Monday.
Daytime temps through the period should run above normal, from the
mid 70s to lower 80s on Sat, perhaps a little warmer both Sunday and
Monday. Low temps under the sfc high Fri night will range from the
mid 40s to mid 50s, then gradually moderate, with mid 50s to mid 60s
expected both Sunday night and Mon night.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak cold fronts will move through the area through tonight.
Mainly VFR. Areas of BKN cigs around 3kft may approach northern
terminals this afternoon which may result in localized MVFR
conditions. Low chance of a pop-up shower this afternoon at KSWF
but confidence is low so did not include in the TAFs at this
time. A better chance at seeing scattered showers and TSRA
Wednesday afternoon after 20Z. Included in the TAFs as a Prob30.
W/NW wind 10-15kt through this afternoon with gusts upwards of
20-28kt, though gusts closer to 28 kt should be fairly limited.
Wind decreases this evening by 01Z to less than 10 kt. NW/W
winds around 10 kt continue tomorrow with coastal terminals
(KJFK, KISP, KBDR, KGON) becoming more SW due to seabreeze
influence in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and tstms, with brief
MVFR or lower cond at times in the afternoon and at night.
Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible.
Friday and Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR with any rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A bit gusty today in westerly flow, especially near
the shoreline, with occasional gusts approaching 25 kt. Will
monitor coastal obs should a Small Craft Advisory be needed, but
at the moment don`t think gust coverage or frequency will be
achieved on a widespread basis for the marine zones.
Sub-advisory conditions persist thru mid to late week with the flow
generally 10 kt or less. Winds pick up from the north on Friday, but
still short of advisory thresholds. Winds then diminish for
Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk continues today due to 3-4 ft ocean
seas, and on Wed with a 2-3 ft mix of SE and S swell. This is
supported by the latest RCMOS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/DR
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...