305
FXUS61 KOKX 301757
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
157 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure pushes off the New England coast into this
afternoon, with a weak low pressure trough remaining in its
wake through this evening. High pressure over the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley will then build toward the Mid Atlantic coast
from late tonight into Friday night Saturday, and move off the
coast on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Forecast on track this afternoon.
Low pressure continues pushing off the New England coast this
afternoon with its associated upper trough axis approaching
this afternoon and evening. Moisture is limited, but fairly
steep lapse rates may lead to isolated showers, especially east
of the Hudson and NYC corridor. There is limited CAPE aloft and
latest forecast soundings indicate a cap around 10 kft, so will
continue to not mention thunder at this time. Any isolated
shower should diminish after sunset. Skies will clear overnight
as the trough begins to shift offshore.
High temps today should reach the upper 60s across SE CT and
the fork of Long Island, lower 70s most elsewhere, and the mid
70s across NYC and NE NJ, which is near normal. Low temps
tonight will range from the mid/upper 50s invof NYC, to 45-50
across the interior and in the Long Island Pine Barrens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair wx expected during this time frame along with a gradual
warmup as sfc high pressure builds toward the Mid Atlantic
coast and vis rising heights aloft as an upper ridge builds
toward the East Coast. High temps in the 70s on Friday will
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s in most places on Sat, with
lower/mid 70s confined to the immediate south shores of Long
Island and SE CT. Low temps Fri night should be similar to those
of tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday begins with a surface high pressure ridge not too far
offshore and an upper ridge overhead. The ridge aloft flattens
in the afternoon and evening with the approach and passage of a
shortwave. This may trigger a shower in spots Sunday afternoon
and night for western and far southern portions of the forecast
area.
Heights recover somewhat on Monday into Tuesday with surface
high pressure in control. Dry for Monday. Probably dry for
Tuesday as well with deep ridging, however don`t want to remove
slight chance/chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon and night just yet
as there`s a chance of a surface trough and shortwave aloft
triggering a shower. The pattern doesn`t change all that much
for Wednesday, but models seem to agree that the ridging shifts
more offshore. Slight chance/chance PoPs therefore for Wednesday
as well.
NBM was used for temperatures. Each day will feature highs above
normal, ranging mostly from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure continues moving east of the region, while high
pressure gradually builds in from the west.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF
period. Mainly dry conditions are expected through the
remainder of the TAF period, although an isolated shower this
afternoon and early evening will be possible with a potential
brief reduction in visibility to MVFR east of the NYC terminals.
Shower chances too low to include in TAF but do indicate a
possible brief period of MVFR stratus east of the NYC terminals
within a TEMPO group.
Winds will be out of the north near 10-15 kt and gusting this
afternoon to near 20 kt until around 20-21Z, a little longer,
until 22-23Z, east of the NYC terminals. Gusts then subside
with sustained winds becoming more NW and decreasing to near 10
kt for this evening. NW winds more in the 5-10 kt range for
later tonight and into Friday morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts could be a few hours off from TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday through Saturday night: VFR.
Sunday: MVFR possible with showers possible at times.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm
N/W of NYC terminals.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions should remain below SCA levels this afternoon, but a
gust close to 25 kt possible east of Moriches Inlet. Otherwise,
conditions will remain below SCA levels through Saturday.
Although southerly winds increase on Sunday, they will likely
remain below advisory thresholds with seas building up to 3-4
ft by late in the day into Sunday night. Sub-advisory conditions
continue on Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk is moderate for the Suffolk beaches this
afternoon, where combo of SE-S long period swells and offshore
flow 15 kt should build surf to 3-4 ft. Rip current risk remains
low for today for the Nassau and NYC ocean beaches, and low for
Friday for all the ocean beaches.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...