387
FXUS61 KOKX 311746
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build toward the area through Friday, and
remain in control through Saturday as it moves off the Mid
Atlantic coast. A weak disturbance will approach late Sunday and
move across Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure will
then take control of the weather through Wednesday before a cold
front approaches on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
For this update, dewpoints were lowered over parts of the area
by a few degrees to account for the latest observations and
trends. Winds were also adjusted through this evening to reflect
the latest model guidance on the sea breeze. More on that in
the discussion below.
A mostly sunny today with high pressure building in. Some mid
level clouds moving across the area, especially inland and
across Long Island this afternoon. NW flow 10-15 mph with a few
gusts to 20 mph this afternoon and there may be a SW sea breeze
along the coastlines late this afternoon an early this
evening. Most 12Z guidance and the latest HRRR are showing
better chances for the sea breeze to push farther inland about
halfway before stopping instead of only reaching the immediate
coast. This has been reflected in the grids, but confidence is
not strong considering a strong NW flow currently over the area.
High temps today should be on the warm side, near 80 in urban NE
NJ and in the mid/upper 70s elsewhere.
Skies become mostly clear tonight, with NW winds diminishing to
5-10 mph through this evening in the metro area and becoming
light elsewhere. Low temps will range from the lower 60s in
NYC, to the upper 40s in the interior valleys and Long Island
Pine Barrens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure sfc and aloft will be in control this weekend,
with temps reaching 80-85 in most areas both days. Most south
facing coastlines should remain on the cooler 70s, less so on
Sat with a prevailing W-NW flow, more so on Sunday as a 10-15 kt
S sea breeze develops in the afternoon. An approaching shortwave
trough could get close enough to yield a slight chance of
showers by late day Sunday west of the Hudson River.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridge flattens Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave
approaches from the west. Associated weak low center is progged
to pass not too far south of us during this period. Chance of
showers with this system through Monday morning, with the
highest overall chances for southern sections.
Heights aloft recover somewhat in the wake of the shortwave
Monday night and Tuesday before falling slowly on Wednesday.
Mainly dry through this period with subsidence and capping, but
cannot rule out a shower north and west of the city Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons where there`s a chance of a little CAPE
building. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives
on Thursday with the approach of a cold front and pre-frontal
trough.
NBM was used for temperatures. Each day will feature highs above
normal, ranging mostly from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the terminals through the TAF period.
VFR. N-NNW winds 10-15kt with gusts up to around 20kt, mainly in
the afternoon. Winds at some of the terminals, (KJFK/KTEB) have
a been a bit more northeasterly than expected. Wind directions
are expected to become more westerly for some coastal terminals
during the afternoon. NW winds under 10kt tonight. Winds become
Saturday afternoon, with seabreezes possible at the coastal
terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KEWR will remain right around 310 from approx 20z through the
rest of the afternoon. Amendments possible at KJFK with the
potential for changing wind directions. Winds are more
northeasterly than expected. They are expected to become more
N-NW . Low chance of a seabreeze.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday-Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Showers and MVFR possible in the morning, then VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower conditions possible in
afternoon/early evening showers, mainly NW of the NYC metro
terminals.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm,
mainly west of NYC during the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the middle of next
week, with ocean seas no higher than 3 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk today and Saturday. This is
supported by RCMOS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/BR
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...