okx-afd on 2024-05-31

359
FXUS61 KOKX 311954
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will be in control Friday night through Saturday
night. A weak disturbance will approach late Sunday and move across
Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure will then take
control of the weather through Wednesday before a cold front
approaches on Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Late this afternoon into this evening a sea breeze front may occur
for coastal locations. How far inland it tracks is lo w in
confidence. Many CAMs would suggest it will push in halfway inland,
but we currently have a strong 10-15 kt flow with some 20+ kt gusts.
This may prevent it from moving beyond the immediate coastlines.

Skies clear this evening and remain clear overnight under building
high pressure. Temperatures will dip into the low-50s to low-60s,
warmer than last night, under light NW flow.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Surface high pressure centers itself over the area on Saturday with
a ridge aloft. Temperatures continue to warm into the low/mid-80s
for most about 5-10 degrees above average. Mostly sunny skies stay
in place Saturday. A sea breeze may be more likely on Saturday due
to the warmer temperatures, leading to temperatures dropping after
its passage in the mid-late afternoon for many locations near
the coast.

As the ridge gradually weakens aloft and high pressure weakens in
response to an approaching shortwave, cloud cover may increase very
late into overnight Saturday. Ahead of the approaching shortwave,
clouds will be mid-high level. Lows may not be affected much by them
on Saturday night with lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will be offshore on Sunday, while the upper ridge
flattens Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave moves across the
area. The surface reflection shows weak low pressure passing just
south of the forecast area. There is a chance of showers with this
system, but there is also evidence of mid level capping. The 12Z
ECMWF is still one of the more aggressive solutions with a
convective complex dropping from NW to SE across the forecast area.
Not quite buying into that solution at this time.

Heights then build with upper ridging reestablishing itself through
midweek with surface high pressure just off the Northeast coast. A
frontal system then approaches for the end of the week as a northern
stream upper vortex carves out a trough across the Great Lakes and
into the Northeast. There are some timing differences in the
guidance as can be expected this far out in time. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast from Wednesday night
into Thursday, with Thursday looking like the wetter of the days.

While pretty much ran with the NBM for temperatures, noted in the
box and whisker plots that the deterministic is generally running at
the 25th percentile or even lower, especially through Tuesday. Yet,
there are some large spreads between the 25th and 75th, with the
median warmer in the 80s for most locations. However, having trouble
going closer to the median as there is often ridging aloft with a
subsidence inversion and onshore S/SE flow. The warmest day at this
time looks to be Sunday, with closer to normal temperatures for the
second half of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains over the terminals through the TAF period.

VFR. N-NNW winds 10-15kt with gusts up to around 20kt, mainly in the
afternoon. Wind direction is expected to become more westerly for
some coastal terminals during the afternoon. NW winds under 10kt
expected tonight. Winds become westerly Saturday afternoon, with
seabreezes possible at the coastal terminals.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KEWR will remain right around 310 through the rest of the afternoon.
Amendments possible at KJFK with the potential for changing wind
directions. Low chance of a seabreeze.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday-Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Showers and MVFR possible in the morning, then VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower conditions possible in
afternoon/early evening showers, mainly NW of the NYC metro
terminals.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm,
mainly west of NYC during the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the middle of next
week, with ocean seas no higher than 3 ft.

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk today and Saturday. This is
supported by RCMOS.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...