okx-afd on 2024-05-31

062
FXUS61 KOKX 010015
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
815 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control Friday night through Saturday
night. A weak disturbance will approach late Sunday and move across
Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure will then take
control of the weather through Wednesday before a cold front
approaches on Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Due to better mixing and lower dew points this evening,
seabreeze has largely been held in check by NW flow. In fact,
winds have been gusty from the NW, mainly from NYC and points
north and west.

Skies will be mainly clear overnight under building high
pressure. Temperatures will dip into the low-50s to low-60s,
warmer than last night, under light NW flow.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure centers itself over the area on Saturday with
a ridge aloft. Temperatures continue to warm into the low/mid-80s
for most about 5-10 degrees above average. Mostly sunny skies stay
in place Saturday. A sea breeze may be more likely on Saturday due
to the warmer temperatures, leading to temperatures dropping after
its passage in the mid-late afternoon for many locations near
the coast.

As the ridge gradually weakens aloft and high pressure weakens in
response to an approaching shortwave, cloud cover may increase very
late into overnight Saturday. Ahead of the approaching shortwave,
clouds will be mid-high level. Lows may not be affected much by them
on Saturday night with lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will be offshore on Sunday, while the upper ridge
flattens Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave moves across the
area. The surface reflection shows weak low pressure passing just
south of the forecast area. There is a chance of showers with this
system, but there is also evidence of mid level capping. The 12Z
ECMWF is still one of the more aggressive solutions with a
convective complex dropping from NW to SE across the forecast area.
Not quite buying into that solution at this time.

Heights then build with upper ridging reestablishing itself through
midweek with surface high pressure just off the Northeast coast. A
frontal system then approaches for the end of the week as a northern
stream upper vortex carves out a trough across the Great Lakes and
into the Northeast. There are some timing differences in the
guidance as can be expected this far out in time. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast from Wednesday night
into Thursday, with Thursday looking like the wetter of the days.

While pretty much ran with the NBM for temperatures, noted in the
box and whisker plots that the deterministic is generally running at
the 25th percentile or even lower, especially through Tuesday. Yet,
there are some large spreads between the 25th and 75th, with the
median warmer in the 80s for most locations. However, having trouble
going closer to the median as there is often ridging aloft with a
subsidence inversion and onshore S/SE flow. The warmest day at this
time looks to be Sunday, with closer to normal temperatures for the
second half of the week.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains over the terminals through the TAF period,
pushing off the mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday afternoon.

VFR. W to NW winds around 10 kt this evening, will continue to
diminish to less than 10 kt overnight. with gusts up to around
20kt, mainly in the afternoon. Gusts will also diminish, though
occasional gusts to around 20 kt are still possible in the metro
area through 02Z. Winds become W to SW in the afternoon,
especially after the high moves off shore. Seabreezes are possible
at the coastal terminals, but there remains uncertainty as to
exactly how far inland the sea breeze tracks. Highest
probability for sea breezes are KJFK, KISP, and KGON.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts to around 20 kt for metro terminals through
02Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night-Sunday Night: VFR through the day Sunday. MVFR or
lower possible in showers Sunday night.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible late in the day
into Wednesday night in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the middle of next
week, with ocean seas no higher than 3 ft.

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the end of next
week, with seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low
seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...BR/DW
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW