okx-afd on 2024-06-01

059
FXUS61 KOKX 010821
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
421 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic today shifts offshore
Sunday. A disturbance approaches late Sunday and passes nearby
into early Monday. High pressure then builds across the region
from Southeast Canada through Tuesday night. The high moves out
in to the Atlantic for the latter half of the week. A frontal
system approaches from the west towards the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Pleasant start to the month of June and meteorological summer across
the local Tri-State with surface high pressure nearby and ridging
aloft today.

A light northwest flow around the top of the high gradually backs
west through the day as the high shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Deep mixing up to 750 mb should allow much of the region away from
the immediate shoreline to achieve lower 80s by lunchtime, or 5 to
10 degrees above normal for early June. Only caveat is the potential
sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon hours, dropping temps
back into the 70s for coastal locales. Subsidence should mitigate
most cloud cover, absent what little cu can develop. The minimal
moisture with surface dew points in the 40s and low 50s will only
add to the comfort of the air mass, sparing for now the higher
humidity that summer often brings.

Tonight, a shearing shortwave lifting northeast across the Midwest
will attempt to shunt the ridging in place locally. This will
introduce high clouds overnight ahead of the shortwave, but
conditions remain dry as temperatures fall back into the 50s and 60s
once again.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure sits offshore on Sunday, while the ridging aloft
flattens with the approach of the weakening shortwave. High clouds
gradually thicken and lower through the day, eventually bringing the
chance for a few rain showers by the evening and overnight hours.
Coverage appears limited however with weak forcing and moisture to
work with. A lack of instability should preclude most thunderstorm
activity, but a rogue rumble of thunder can`t be entirely ruled out.

Still some range in the solutions offered by global guidance, with
the GEFS farther north with the disturbance than the GEPS or ENS
on the 00z runs. It`s possible portions of the region, especially
into southern Connecticut, remain entirely dry should the southern
solutions verify, but regardless, overall QPF is expected to be
light.

The weak surface feature passes near of just south of the region
early Monday. Surface high pressure then begins to return from
the north, though the lingering frontal boundary to the south
could instigate a spotty shower into the afternoon. Temperatures
during the day range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Dry conditions
prevail Monday night with temperate lows in the 50s and 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Mid levels exhibit a transition from weak ridging around midweek to
a large approaching cutoff mid level low Thursday into the end of
the week.

Mid level ridging appears to be relatively strongest Tuesday through
Wednesday while at the surface, high pressure builds in locally from
the north. The origin for the high pressure is in the Canadian
Maritimes.

For Thursday into the end of the week, a warm front approaches
Thursday and eventually moves across by early Friday. A cold front
then follows for Friday into Friday night. Surface trough pattern
remains for the next weekend.

The airmass will become more moist with the forecast also having
more chances of rain, especially from Wednesday night onward when
POPs of at least 25% are present within the forecast region for at
least a part of the region. Overall, the winds will have more
onshore component as well, helping to eventually raise the dewpoints.

There could be a few thunderstorms embedded within the showers but
probabilities for this are just slight, mainly in the timeframe of
Thursday through Friday.

Temperature do not appear to deviate too significantly from
climatological normals during this long term.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure continues to move into the region during the TAF
period, with its center south of the area late today into tonight.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Wind speeds are
expected to be mainly near or less than 10 kts much of the TAF
period. Wind direction will initially be NW, or more variable going
into early today with winds becoming more W-SW with some coastal
terminals expected to a sea breeze for afternoon into early evening.

There is uncertainty with the timing of the sea breeze, making for a
lower confidence wind direction forecast today. KJFK, KLGA, KISP and
KGON have highest chances of getting sea breezes. KBDR, KHPN, KEWR
and KTEB have low chances of getting sea breezes.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for wind direction this afternoon depending on
the timing of the sea breeze. Sea breeze arrival time could be off
by 1 to 2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Tonight-Sunday Night: VFR through the day Sunday. MVFR or lower
possible in showers Sunday night.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible the day into night in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through late next week,
with seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less.

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low
seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR