958
FXUS61 KOKX 021154
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
754 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the East Coast shifts farther out into the western
Atlantic today. A weakening disturbance moves through late tonight
and into the first half of Monday. High pressure then builds across
the region from Southeast Canada through Tuesday night. The high
moves out in to the Atlantic for the latter half of the week as a
frontal system approaches from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track early this morning with sunshine
prevailing through a cirrus veil.
Mid level ridging over the region flattens today with the approach
of a weakening shortwave. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered
near Cape Hatteras shifts farther out into the western Atlantic
today.
The first weekend of June comes to a close on a pleasant note. After
a mild morning in the 50s and 60s, afternoon highs will be very
similar to yesterday`s, generally topping out in the low to mid
80s away from the immediate shore. Despite temperatures running
up to 10 degrees above normal for early June, the air mass
should remain quite comfortable, with dew points still in the
50s.
Abundant sunshine likely becomes more filtered through a
thickening cirrus deck as the day progresses, but dry conditions
prevail nonetheless. Light flow backs more southwesterly as the
high moves offshore, and this could help advance sea breezes
inland a bit quicker and further than on Saturday.
As the advancing shortwave progresses east and over the Appalachians
it will dampen out and weaken. Any associated shower activity that
does make it into the area likely waits until late this evening,
generally after midnight, to arrive. Latest CAMs are a bit mixed
with coverage and placement, but best chance for seeing drops fall
from the sky looks to be over the southwestern half of the region.
It`s possible portions of southern CT, or perhaps even the bulk of
the forecast area, remain entirely dry as the system weakens and
passes to the south. With that said, QPF should be light, likely
under a tenth of an inch where it does precipitate.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The relatively tame start to the month continues into the first few
days of the work week as the shortwave exits early Monday and
ridging quickly begins to rebuild from the west. A weak surface
pressure field persists, with a 1020 mb high over Quebec nosing
southward into midweek and setting up easterly or southeasterly
flow by Tuesday.
Any lingering rain showers on Monday come to an end by mid to late
morning and the column gradually dries out through the day. Cloud
cover should begin to break up, especially away from the coast, and
allow some sunshine by the afternoon. A few diurnal showers or even
a thunderstorm could pop up to the west over interior NJ during the
afternoon, but this appears limited. Capped PoPs at slight chance at
this point, but will monitor the CAMs should coverage prove more
expansive.
Dry on Tuesday with high pressure sliding down the New England coast
keeping calm conditions in place. With offshore water temperatures
still in the upper 50s and lower 60s, the developing onshore
flow Tuesday will keep coastal locales a bit cooler than recent
days, with highs likely in the low to mid 70s during the
afternoon. Away from this influence, mainly the far interior and
areas west of the Hudson River, lower 80s is where temperatures
top out.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weather pattern overall turns wetter and slowly cooler during the
long term as the area gets more eventually within the control of a
large approaching mid level cutoff low. This is shown by various
large scale numerical weather prediction models as well as the grand
ensemble of the LREF. The 24 hr precipitation spread for Thursday
afternoon depicts a range of quarter to half inch and for Friday
morning that 24 hr precipitation grows to a half to one inch looking
at the spread of the 75th and 25th percentiles of the same grand
ensemble of the LREF. For next weekend, the 24 hr precipitation
lowers to less than a quarter of an inch looking at the same
percentile range.
Mid levels exhibit a transition from weakening ridging around
midweek to a large approaching elongated cutoff mid level low
Thursday into the end of the week.
Mid level ridging appears to be relatively strongest Wednesday while
at the surface, high pressure across the area will be slowly
weakening.
For Thursday into the end of the week, a series of frontal systems
move across, with the help of the faster steering flow offered by
the mid level cutoff low eventually moving near the region.
Forecast high temperatures stay mainly within the range of 70 to 80
during the long term and forecast lows for the first two nights stay
between 60 and 70. The following two nights are forecast to have
slightly cooler temperatures.
Some elevated instability is depicted by some forecast models for
parts of the mid to late week period, which will enable for there to
be some embedded thunderstorm activity from time to time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gradually moves farther out into the Atlantic during
the TAF period.
Mainly VFR and dry conditions are expected through the TAF period
with possible MVFR for the 30 hr TAF sites, especially going into
the 12-18 hours of the TAF forecast.
A general S-SW flow 5-10 kt initially increases to near 10-15 kt for
this afternoon with sea breeze enhancement for some coastal
terminals. Some locations will have wind speeds of 5 kts or less and
variable direction late tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Some gusts 15-20 kt possible this afternoon. KEWR could briefly get
a sea breeze with more SE wind late this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Possible shower or thunderstorm
near and N/W of NYC terminals afternoon into early evening with
brief MVFR possible.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR during the day. MVFR or lower possible late
day into the night with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain showers, thunderstorms
afternoon into night evening. Thunderstorms more probable late
Thursday night into early Friday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through the
period.
The ocean waters may begin to approach SCA conditions with 4 to 5
ft waves developing late Thursday into early Friday under enhanced
southerly flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic problems are expected at this time.
Heavy rain will be possible with some showers or any t-storms
in the Thursday into Friday timeframe.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
With the approach of a new moon this week, astronomical levels will
be on the rise. With winds becoming more southerly and eventually
southeasterly, this will allow for increasing surge this week. As a
result, some locations could get some minor coastal flooding,
potentially becoming more widespread Tuesday night and Wednesday
night.
Tide levels increase getting closer to midweek. Stevens guidance
shows minor flood benchmarks being approached as early as Monday
night. Thus, trends will need to be monitored in subsequent
cycles with minor coastal flooding will become more likely for
the south shore bays of Nassau, Queens, and Brooklyn, along with
Western LI Sound for CT, and Westchester towards Tuesday.
Water temperatures remain around 60 degrees around the region.
This poses the threat for hypothermia to anyone immersed in the
water. Small boats, canoes, and kayaks should plan accordingly
if recreating this and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.
There is a low rip current risk through Monday due to low seas
on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...