345
FXUS61 KOKX 071130
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak low pressure systems head through New England today
through Sunday as broad high pressure slowly builds from the
southwest. High pressure then follows for the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast is on track this morning with only minor updates.
Have backed off on the patchy fog development with just some
river fog evident in latest satellite imagery. Otherwise, patchy
fog may still be possible for the next few hours across
eastern Long Island and southern CT where dewpoints were highest
and winds calm.
The cold front was still located west of NYC this morning
and slowly pushing east. NW flow behind the front is advecting
in drier air with dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s.
Skies should clear from west to east today as the front heads east
and an upper low slowly moves from the Great Lakes region into
upstate NY this afternoon. It should be a dry day for most, though a
weak trough will approach the region this afternoon. Given the
proximity to the deep cyclonic flow and cold pool associated with
this upper low, expect diurnally driven isolated showers in the
afternoon. This is most likely to occur across the interior, north
and west of NYC. CAMs vary somewhat on degree of coverage, and model
soundings do indicate a few hundred J/kg of CAPE so an isolated
thunderstorm is not out of the question. However, think the better
chances are farther north of the area, and so have kept thunder out
of the forecast. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation with
any shower or storm, up to perhaps a few tenths of an inch. Any
shower activity that does occur will wane with the loss of daytime
heating.
Highs today will be similar to yesterday, in the mid 80s but will
feel a bit less humid, with dewpoints in the 50s. A well-mixed
afternoon boundary layer, as advertised by BUFKIT soundings, may
also allow for some westerly wind gusts near 20mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper low remains over New England for the period slowly moving
toward the Canadian maritimes. The mid level flow begins to flatten
on Saturday, which should keep any precipitation away from the area.
Dry conditions in store for the day, with temperatures a few degrees
cooler under weak westerly surface flow.
By Sunday, the more zonal mid/upper flow and a shortwave aloft will
allow for a weak low pressure system and cold front to pass through
the area. This will bring another chance for precipitation early on
Sunday. Model soundings do not indicate much in the way of shear or
instability so have left thunder mention out of the forecast. Skies
may clear by later in the day, with temperatures similar to, or a
few degrees warmer than, Saturday, depending on cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes to the forecast for next week. Stuck fairly
close to the NBM.
*Key Points*
*A few weak fronts or surface troughs may pass early next week, but
conditions should remain mainly dry.
*Temperatures likely end up a few degrees above normal this weekend,
trend near normal early next week, then edge above normal middle of
the week.
The upper trough axis associated with an upper low then lingers over
the region Monday. The guidance indicates the trough axis could
shift offshore Tuesday, but it may also remain nearby. While
moisture and lift are limited, an isolated shower is possible Monday
afternoon and evening and then again on Tuesday.
The trough moves east and gets replaced by more of a zonal flow in
the mid levels, however the 00z GFS is showing another shortwave
approaching. Will stick fairly close to the NBM with just slight
chance POPs Tuesday through Thursday. However, if the GFS were right
with this faster, more progressive shortwave, POPs will have to be
increased on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front slowly pushes across the terminals this morning. Weak
high pressure then remains over the terminals through tonight.
Mainly VFR. There may be a brief MVFR cig this morning.
Light WNW-NW winds back WSW-SW late this morning/early afternoon,
then shift back WNW behind a weak cold front/trough late day/early
evening. Gusts up to around 20kt during the afternoon and evening.
Winds fall to 10kt or less overnight with some outlying terminals
becoming light and variable.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts may develops earlier than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday-Sunday. VFR, MVFR possible with a chance of showers
late Saturday night through Sunday.
Monday-Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers Tuesday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA continues for the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet
through 6am. Marginal seas around 5 ft prevail during this
time.
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Friday into
early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
SCAs have been cancelled on all remaining waters as seas have
fallen below 5ft. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA
levels through early next week. Low pressure may impact the
waters mid to late next week. If this occurs, seas may increase
to SCA levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have issued coastal flood statements this morning for this
evening`s high tide cycle. These are for southern Nassau and
the western LI Sound, as high astronomical tides and a
southerly wind component this afternoon may lead to some
isolated minor benchmarks being reached. Steven`s median
guidance was near or just over observed values for last night`s
high tide for points in these areas, and so weighted this more
heavily in the forecast. Should newer guidance increase values,
advisories may be needed especially across the western LI Sound.
Some question for Saturday`s afternoon high tide cycle as well,
as some locations may again just touch minor benchmarks.
A moderate rip current risk today through the weekend at all
Atlantic facing beaches due to 3-4 ft seas and lingering
southerly swell. This is supported by the latest RCMOS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...