793
FXUS61 KOKX 071732
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
132 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A series of weak low pressure systems head through New England
today through Sunday as broad high pressure slowly builds from
the southwest. High pressure then follows for the middle of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Quick update to add a slight chance of showers across far
eastern Connecticut and Long Island, where the cold front is
intersecting with sea breezes to allow for development. In its
wake, drier air will advect into the area.
12Z KOKX sounding along with forecast soundings for the
afternoon indicate a strong subsidence inversion at roughly 550
mb or 15 kft. Although a weak trough will rotate through
triggering afternoon showers to the north and west of the city,
the inversion will likely hinder any shower activity from
developing deeply enough to produce lightning. Not expecting
much in the way of precipitation with any shower or storm, up to
perhaps a few tenths of an inch. Any shower activity that does
occur will wane with the loss of daytime heating.
Highs today will be similar to yesterday, in the mid 80s but will
feel a bit less humid, with dewpoints in the 50s. A well-mixed
afternoon boundary layer, as advertised by BUFKIT soundings, may
also allow for some westerly wind gusts near 20mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper low remains over New England for the period slowly moving
toward the Canadian maritimes. The mid level flow begins to flatten
on Saturday, which should keep any precipitation away from the area.
Dry conditions in store for the day, with temperatures a few degrees
cooler under weak westerly surface flow.
By Sunday, the more zonal mid/upper flow and a shortwave aloft will
allow for a weak low pressure system and cold front to pass through
the area. This will bring another chance for precipitation early on
Sunday. Model soundings do not indicate much in the way of shear or
instability so have left thunder mention out of the forecast. Skies
may clear by later in the day, with temperatures similar to, or a
few degrees warmer than, Saturday, depending on cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes to the forecast for next week. Stuck fairly
close to the NBM.
*Key Points*
*A few weak fronts or surface troughs may pass early next week, but
conditions should remain mainly dry.
*Temperatures likely end up a few degrees above normal this weekend,
trend near normal early next week, then edge above normal middle of
the week.
The upper trough axis associated with an upper low then lingers over
the region Monday. The guidance indicates the trough axis could
shift offshore Tuesday, but it may also remain nearby. While
moisture and lift are limited, an isolated shower is possible Monday
afternoon and evening and then again on Tuesday.
The trough moves east and gets replaced by more of a zonal flow in
the mid levels, however the 00z GFS is showing another shortwave
approaching. Will stick fairly close to the NBM with just slight
chance POPs Tuesday through Thursday. However, if the GFS were right
with this faster, more progressive shortwave, POPs will have to be
increased on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure remains over the terminals through Saturday
afternoon. A weak surface trough inland this afternoon.
VFR. There is a low chance of showers this afternoon at KSWF
with conditions remaining VFR.
Winds generally light and westerly this afternoon, with local
sea breezes. Winds will be generally westerly through tonight
less than 10 kt. Winds increase Saturday morning with gusts
developing.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon-Sunday. VFR, MVFR possible with a chance of
showers late Saturday night through Sunday. Sunday, W winds
G20-25kt.
Monday-Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers late Tuesday.
Monday, W winds G20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through
early next week. Low pressure may impact the waters mid to late
next week. If this occurs, seas may increase to SCA levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood statements remain in effect for this evening`s
high tide cycle. These are for southern Nassau and the western
LI Sound, as high astronomical tides and a southerly wind
component this afternoon may lead to some isolated minor
benchmarks being reached. Steven`s median guidance was near or
just over observed values for last night`s high tide for points
in these areas, and so weighted this more heavily in the
forecast. Should newer guidance increase values, advisories may
be needed especially across the western LI Sound. Some question
for Saturday`s afternoon high tide cycle as well, as some
locations may again just touch minor benchmarks.
A moderate rip current risk today through the weekend at all
Atlantic facing beaches due to 3-4 ft seas and lingering
southerly swell. This is supported by the latest RCMOS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MD/DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR/MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...