971
FXUS61 KOKX 081737
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
137 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides south of the area today and into tonight.
A cold front is expected to move through on Sunday, followed by
a series of weaker cold fronts Monday and Tuesday. High pressure
then builds in for the middle of next week. A cold front may
approach for late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Minor adjustments made to temperatures and dewpoints with this
afternoon update. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
Weak ridging aloft and broad westerly flow will keep drier
conditions across the area Saturday, with seasonable highs
generally in the mid 70s to near 80. Humidity levels will remain
subjectively low as dew points lower into the low to mid 50s.
Later in the day, low pressure will nose in from the northeast along
a surface trough. This will lead to increasing cloud cover in the
afternoon going from sunny to partly cloudy. The increased pressure
gradient may also lead to winds gusting 20-25 mph from the
west.
Overnight, another wave of low pressure approaches from the Great
Lakes, with deep layer flow becoming more oriented from the south to
southwest, allowing for an increase in moisture. The subsequent
increase in cloud cover overnight will keep low temperatures a few
degrees higher than Friday night, while rain chances may increase
from the northwest by Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A trough deepens over the northeast on Sunday bringing positive
vorticity advection in the afternoon. This PVA lines up with the
passage of a weak surface low and associated cold front. We`ll also
be situated within the left exit region of a jet streak on Sunday.
Expect increased cloud cover on Sunday ahead of a cold front with
decreasing clouds Sunday evening after the front passes. Scattered
showers are expected with increased moisture being advected
northward in advance of the front, with more coverage of showers in
the northern interior late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.
Some weak instability will be around with the best chances for
thunderstorms in the northern interior areas of our CWA, though may
only see isolated instances of thunderstorms.
We`ll dry into Sunday night with a westerly wind returning.
Temperatures may be 3-6 degrees cooler Sunday night in comparison to
Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**Key Points**
*Warming trend mid to late week, with increasing chances of above
normal temperatures.
*Mainly dry conditions Monday through Thursday.
*A frontal system with the potential for more widespread
precipitation Friday into next weekend.
There has been not much change in the forecast thinking for this
update; have stuck close to the NBM with some adjustments,
particularly with temperatures for mid to late week.
Ensembles continue to depict mean troughing over the northeast to
begin the period followed by an amplifying ridge midweek. The mean
upper flow then becomes more zonal by late week into next weekend.
At the surface, a few weak cold fronts or troughs will pass though
the area both Monday and Tuesday afternoon instigating an increased
chance of a few showers, more likely across the interior. These will
be isolated to scattered in nature and diurnally driven. By
Wednesday, surface high pressure moves in from the southwest and
offshore by Thursday. This will set up a return to southerly flow
and increased moisture advection in advance of the next low pressure
system late Thursday into Friday. Decent model spread on this
feature in terms of timing and strength. Best chances of
precipitation as of now look to be on Friday, and have capped PoPs
at slight chance for the entire area. Have also maintained a chance
of thunder with any precip on Friday as model soundings do show a
bit of instability, but this is subject to change given the
aforementioned model spread this far out.
Given the NBM deterministic MaxTs falling toward the 10th-25th
percentile of the MaxT distribution, have continued the trend of
blending in the 50th percentile for mid and late week (under
westerly flow) yielding mid and upper 80s Wed-Friday. This is a
few degrees above MOSGuide as well, with Thu. and Fri.
potentially the warmest days of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds in slowly through this afternoon. A
cold front approaches the area from the west into early Sunday
and moves across during the day.
VFR through tonight. Clouds increase ahead of an approaching
cold front late tonight. Showers become possible late tonight
and into early morning on Sunday with a chance of MVFR cigs
through 18Z for much of the terminals. Improvement expected to
VFR during the afternoon.
W/WNW winds this afternoon 10-15 G20-25kt. Some gusts upwards of
30 kt possible this afternoon but stronger gusts should be more
occasional. Gusts diminish tonight and wind shifts to the SW and
S late tonight at around 5 kt. Winds back to the SW and W again
with the approach of the cold front Sunday morning then shift
back W/WNW tomorrow afternoon behind the cold frontal passage.
Some gusts upward of 20-25kt will be possible Sunday afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected through tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any remaining showers early
in the afternoon. W/NW wind gusts 20-25kt.
Monday-Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through
midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the Atlantic ocean beaches, a moderate rip risk expected for
Saturday with a mix of residual 4 ft@8 sec swells and 2-3 ft S wind
waves. Moderate rips risk likely once again on Sunday. Moderate rips
remain a possibility on Monday for SE Suffolk beaches, with the
rest of the beaches dropping to a low risk for rips.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DBR/BR
HYDROLOGY...DBR/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...