726
FXUS61 KOKX 091838
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
238 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through on Sunday followed by a secondary
weak cold front on Monday. An upper level low pivots through
Tuesday, followed by high pressure for the middle of the week. A
cold front approaches Friday and moves through Friday night.
High pressure builds to begin next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Updated temperatures and PoPs into the afternoon to reflect the
latest observations and radar returns as showers move through
the area. Showers for eastern areas will come to an end by
18Z/2PM. Sky cover will clear a bit before sunset, improving
first west and spreading east. The sooner the cloud cover
breaks, the warmer afternoon highs will be able to get. SW
gusts remain possible 20-30 mph through the afternoon as the
cold front makes its way through the area.
Mostly dry conditions are expected behind the front with a WNW wind
lowering dewpoints and clearing cloud cover. However, one last bit
of upper-level energy around the base of the trough could lead to an
additional round of isolated showers in the late evening today,
mainly for the northern interior areas of the CWA. We`ll continue to
dry and clear and into tonight with cold air advection aloft at
850 mb.
Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s, possibly near 80 for
the NYC metro. Lows in the mid 50s to low 60s are expected
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough continues to deepen over the northeast as surface
high pressure noses in from the west. Dry conditions remain in place
on Monday with mostly sunny conditions. It will feel much nicer
outside with high temperatures in the 70s close to seasonal averages
and dewpoints 10 degrees lower than Sunday in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Suppressed heights are anticipated with an upper level low pivoting
through to begin the period on Tuesday. Heights then recover into
mid week with more of a quasi-zonal long wave pattern for much of
the week. A weakness then likely develops in the 500 mb long wave
pattern Friday into Saturday.
A mainly dry period is expected. The only chances for any shower
activity will come Tuesday with the upper level low feature, then
late in the week towards late Friday and Friday night with the
arrival of a cold front. With warmer temperatures and likely more
instability, there will be a chance of thunderstorms with any shower
activity late week.
Seasonable temperatures are forecast on Tuesday, before some weak
ridging moves in for mid week. Temperatures will get a few degrees
warmer on Wednesday, followed by above normal temperatures Thursday
and Friday. The speed, and thus timing of a cold front late in the
week and any associated clouds brings more uncertainty around
temperatures very late in the period for Friday and Saturday.
Consensus guidance is suggesting that the front arrives later Friday
night, so at this time going with the warmer trend with temperatures
for Friday and Friday night followed by an air mass change to begin
next weekend on Saturday. Stay fairly close to the NBM guidance
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front passes through tonight with high pressure
building in from the west Monday.
VFR through the TAF period. W-NW winds gusting to 20 to 25 kt
through this afternoon should begin subsiding in the evening to
a mainly light W-SW flow around 10 kt. W to NW winds return
Monday and remain around 10 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gusts subsiding may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday-Thursday: VFR expected.
Friday:VFR with MVFR conditions possible in showers in the
afternoon and evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Wind gusts over all waters may approach 25 kts today, but in
general, expect 25 kt gusts to only be occasional with 3-4 foot
waves. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA through the
beginning of next week.
Conditions will remain below small craft levels through midweek with
essentially only up to 2 ft ocean seas. The winds become more
southerly into Thursday with marginal small craft conditions
possible on the ocean by Thursday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the Atlantic ocean beaches, expect a moderate rip current risk
on Sunday, lowering to low on Monday for western beaches, then
dropping to low on all beaches by Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$