203
FXUS61 KOKX 092025
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
425 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure builds in tonight followed by a weak cold front
on Monday. An upper level trough pivots through Tuesday, followed by high
pressure for the middle of the week. A cold front approaches Friday
and moves through Friday night. High pressure builds in for next
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The area remains in a generally NW flow behind the cold front that
passed through earlier today. Clouds continue to scatter out
resulting in some recovery of temperatures before this evening.
A weak area of surface high pressure will build into the area
tonight allowing for continued dry conditions and partly cloudy
to mostly clear skies through the night.

Another piece of midlevel energy swings over the area tonight
bringing a low chance of isolated showers for northern interior
portions of the area tonight, but should mainly just result in some
cloud cover which clears by Monday morning. Lows tonight will be in
the middle 50s to low 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The area remains under an upper level trough on Monday with some
additional packets of midlevel energy rotating through. By and large
much of this energy should result in not much more than some cloud
cover as the lower levels should remain fairly dry. A weak
surface secondary cold front moves through, reinforcing the
drier air advection and allowing for a continued W/NW flow
through the day. Highs will be in the 70s. A surface high
pressure slowly begins to build into the area from the west as
early as Monday night. Lows Monday night will be in the 50s to
low 60s near the coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

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**Key Points**

*Big warmup for the second half the week, followed by a brief
 cool down for the weekend.

*Mainly dry conditions through the period.

*A frontal system to impact the area with showers and
 thunderstorms Friday and Friday night.

An upper trough across the Northeast lifts out on Tuesday briefly
followed by shortwave ridging for the middle of the week.
Afterwards, the upper flow flattens out with a fast flow from
the Northern Plains into the Northeast. This is short-lived as
another upper trough moves into the area to start the weekend.
At the surface, a weak surface trough will be in place on
Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in for Wednesday.
The latter of which gives way to an approaching frontal system
that is forecast to impact the area late Friday into Friday
night. High pressure then returns to start the weekend. This
will be a mainly dry period with the exception of the frontal
system at the end of the week.

The biggest difference in the global models at this time is with
the magnitude of the upper trough swinging across the Great Lakes
and Northeast at the end of the week. This will determine the
extent and magnitude of the convection associated with the cold
front, as well how much we cool down for the weekend. Based on
the NBM box and whisker temperature plots, the deterministic is
generally at the 25th percentile or lower, especially with
respect to high temps. So, this may not be as much of a cool
down behind the cold front as suggested by the 2m temps of some
of the 12Z operational guidance. Relatively speaking though, it
should be noticeable as Thursday and Friday climb well into the
80s and possibly the lower 90s for the interior. The 50th
percentile is even warmer for those days, so will have to see
where this trends. Generally, stayed between the NBM
deterministic and 50th percentile. An onshore flow is another
question mark for the end of the week in how much it will limit
heating at the coast. Typically at this times of year, coastal
locations generally need a decent westerly component to achieve
higher temps. At this time, max heat indices are forecast to
stay below 95. Temperatures at the onset of the period on
Tuesday will be close to normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front passes through tonight with high pressure
building in from the west Monday.

VFR through the TAF period. W-NW winds gusting to 20 to 25 kt
through this afternoon should begin subsiding in the evening to
a mainly light W-SW flow around 10 kt. W to NW winds return
Monday and remain around 10 kt.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts subsiding may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday-Thursday: VFR expected.
Friday:VFR with MVFR conditions possible in showers in the
afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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There may be an isolated wind gusts up to 25kt over the waters
through this evening but will diminish after sunset.

Conditions are expected to remain below SCA through midweek
with essentially only up to 2 ft ocean seas. The winds become
southerly for the end of the week ahead of an approaching
frontal system with marginal small craft conditions possible on
the ocean by Thursday night into Friday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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For the Atlantic ocean beaches, expect a moderate rip current risk
into this evening, lowering to low on Monday for western
beaches, then dropping to low on all beaches by Tuesday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...20
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//