610
FXUS61 KOKX 151835
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak surface trough over the area this afternoon will
dissipate tonight as high pressure builds from the northwest.
The high will move across Sunday morning and then become
stationary just offshore through late week. A few weak
disturbances may approach from the north next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As an upper level trough to the east pulls away, a weak mid
level shortwave trough and weak sfc reflection is helping
produce sfc-bkn Cu across the NYC metro area and most of NJ.
These clouds will dissipate later today into early this evening,
with a mostly clear night. This plus some CAA as high pressure
builds in from the NW plus diminishing winds will lead to good
radiational cooling and mostly below normal low temps, ranging
from the upper 40s in the interior valleys/Long Island Pine
Barrens, to the 50s most elsewhere, to the lower 60s invof NYC.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Heights will continue to rise aloft. High pressure at the
surface will move overhead by late Sunday morning, and then pass
offshore during Sunday afternoon and evening, where it should
become nearly stationary and remain in control through the
week.

The short term period will be dry and mostly sunny. Some energy
rounding the upper level ridge will pass overhead Sunday
afternoon/evening, but will likely just result in some high clouds.

Temperatures Sunday will be just a few degrees cooler than
Saturday, with highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 40s. As
the high shifts offshore later on Sunday a return flow sets up
and moisture increases. Dewpoints quickly return to the upper
50s inland and lower/mid 60s closer to the coast on Monday, with
high temps in the mid/upper 80s from NYC west, 80-85 for NYC and
most of southern CT, and 75-80 for most of Long Island and SE
CT. This should be the last day before a heat wave sets up for
the rest of the week.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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**Key Points**

* A long duration heat wave is expected during most of next week
  beginning on Tuesday and lasting until Friday or Saturday.

* Heat index values of greater than 95 degrees are expected for
  much of the area during this time.

A strengthening deep layer ridge will be positioned over the
East Coast by Tuesday with a surface high pressure system over
the Western Atlantic. Low level flow on the west side of the
high pressure will allow for a southerly or southwesterly flow
through much of the extended period. This will allow for the
advection of both low level moisture and warm air.

The upper level ridge continues strengthening in intensity
through the middle and end of the week, eventually peaking in
strength by Thursday with 500mb heights between 594 and 600dam.
This highly anomalous strength in the upper level ridge will
allow for a prolonged heat event to take place over the entire
Northeast. By Tuesday, surface highs will be in the 90s for much
of the interior portions of the area with coastal locations in
the middle to upper 80s.

Heat persists through the week, eventually allowing temperatures
to rise into the middle to upper 90s for interior portions of
the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and southern CT. It would not be
that surprising if some locations hit 100 degrees, especially
into Thursday and Friday. Because this is a fairly early season
heat wave, relatively cooler waters only in the 60s will shelter
Long Island and immediate coastal Connecticut from experiencing
the worst of the heat, but may result in some enhanced surface
moisture over these areas. Heat index values will likely be
greater than 95 degrees during each afternoon from Tuesday
through at least Friday for everywhere except Long Island. This
may eventually facilitate heat headlines.

Given the duration and intensity of the anticipated heat, it is
important to take precautions to protect one`s health,
particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration. Some heat- sensitive industries and infrastructure
will likely be impacted by the extent of this heat as well.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the area from the north into Sunday.

VFR.

N winds 10-15kt with gusts near 20kt for the next hour or two.
Light northerly winds tonight before gradually shifting NE-E,
then southeast on Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be only occasional. End time of frequent gusts may be
off by an hour, and would more likely end before what are
indicated in TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are
expected on all waters thru early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Latest beach reports indicated no more than a moderate rip
current risk today. The moderate risk should continue
on Sunday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...