776
FXUS61 KOKX 241113
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
713 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves through early this morning with high
pressure building in for the rest of today through Tuesday. The
high settles south of the area Tuesday night as a warm front
lift north Tuesday night. A cold front will move across from
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure will then
return for Thursday night into Friday, and move off the
northeast coast on Saturday as a frontal system begins to
approach. The system moves through Sunday into Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
Cold front moves through the eastern half of the forecast area
early this morning as low pressure in the Gulf of Maine slowly
moves east. An upper level low over New England and upper level
trough over the Northeast also heads slowly east today.
Southwesterly winds will shift to the west, then northwest. It
looks like it will be a rather breezy day today thanks to some
decent cold air advection behind the cold front. NBM winds
looked too low, so used LAMP guidance winds and lowered winds a
bit from there. This yields peak sustained winds today of 20 to
25 mph, with peak gusts of 30 to 35 kt. Additionally, NAM, GFS,
and RAP have 30 to 40 kt winds at the top of the mixed layer
this afternoon. Assuming a portion of that mixes down, then the
aforementioned gusts should be realized, with the potential of
even stronger sustained winds and gusts.
Cold air advection will also allow a cooler air mass, with
highs today expected to range from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
While these temperatures are still a few degrees above normal,
they are much lower than the upper 80s to upper 90s that were
seen yesterday. The windy conditions should also allow dew
points to be lower than what is in much of the guidance as dew
points are in the 40s at the top of the mixed layer. Expect dew
points across the normally drier areas of northeast NJ and Lower
Hudson Valley to drop to the lower 50s by this afternoon and
even into the 40s if winds are stronger than forecast. All this
will make for a much more comfortable start to the week for
most.
There is just a slight chance for showers across northern areas
of the Lower Hudson Valley this afternoon as the upper level
low and trough slowly move east. With dew points dropping into
the 40s and 50s, don`t expect too much to reach the ground.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds diminish overnight with the loss of daytime heating this
evening. A much more comfortable night with lows in the upper
60s to upper 50s across the area tonight. Lows may be a couple
of degrees too high if the air mass is drier than forecast.
Winds may stay up enough so that radiational cooling may not be
maximized.
The high will continue to build in for Tuesday and settled to
the south of the area by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds
shift to the west then southwest by the afternoon, allowing for
a rise in temperatures. Highs should top off in the upper 80s to
lower 90s for much of the area. With dew points still in the
50s region-wide, heat headlines are not anticipated.
A warm front lifts north of the area overnight Tuesday,
allowing for an increase in dew points and for a return to warm
overnight lows, ranging from the middle 70s in the metro area,
to upper 60s in the interior.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points:
* Temperatures will remain near to just above normal, with
Wednesday the warmest and most humid day of the period.
* A slow moving cold front may bring locally heavy rainfall
from late day Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Global guidance continues to remain in fair agreement for next
week and as such, there has not been much change to the forecast
with this update. The National Blend of Models was followed
closely.
An amplifying northern stream upper trough moves through the
Great Lakes and northeast Wednesday through Thursday with a
surface low tracking across southeastern Canada. Deep southwest
flow ahead of the systems cold front will bring warm and humid
air into the region Wednesday with inland temperatures expected
to be in the lower to mid 90s. Wednesday may be marginal for
heat advisories as a few locations across northeastern New
Jersey will have heat indices nearing 100. Precipitable water
values increase to 1.75 to 2.0 inches Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Strong upper lift with increased surface and elevated
CAPE, along with instability will result in thunderstorms by ate
Wednesday into Wednesday night with the potential for moderate
to heavy rainfall. And there is a chance of excessive rainfall
across the lower Hudson Valley into northeastern New Jersey.
High pressure moving out of central Canada Thursday into
Thursday night will be a cooler and drier airmass to the region
as dew points drop into the lower to mid 50s Thursday through
Friday.
Another frontal system approaches Saturday with a warm front
moving north, with increased humidity, and a chance of showers
and thunderstorms into next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold, moving through the western terminals at 11Z, passes to
the east this morning. High pressure then builds in from the
west through tonight.
VFR.
Gusty W/NW winds will be increasing through this morning, with
the strongest winds and gusts expected late morning through this
afternoon, and possibly into early this evening. By afternoon
gusts 25-30 kt are likely, and there may be occasional gusts as
high as 35 kt after 19Z. Winds and gusts diminish after sunset,
with the gusts ending late tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts this afternoon, mainly late afternoon, may be as
high as 35 kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
late afternoon, and likely at night, with MVFR or lower possible. SW
wind 15-20 kt G20-25 kt near the coast.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers,
then VFR.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds are expected to increase behind a cold front that will move
through this morning. SCAs already up for the ocean, but SCAs have
been issued for non-ocean waters for late this morning for the
harbor, south shore bays, and western sound and early this afternoon
for Peconic and Gardiner`s bays and the central and eastern sound as
the cold frontal passage is expected later in these areas. Winds
diminish tonight, and non-ocean waters SCAs come down at 2 am
Tuesday, or sooner if winds diminish quicker than forecast.
SCA on the ocean waters have been extended due to the combination of
the 25 to 30 kt wind gusts expected today and the slowly diminishing
waves that are expected to remain above 5 ft through tonight. Waves
should be diminishing at the start of the near term period (this
morning) at 4 to 7 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through Tuesday night expected. There is
a chance for locally heavy rain from late day Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night ahead of a cold front that moves
through Wednesday night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues today for all ocean beaches
mainly due to an energetic S swell. The risk lowers to moderate
on Tuesday as seas subside with an offshore wind trajectory for
much of the day.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ331-332-340.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ335-338-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...