447
FXUS61 KOKX 242230
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
630 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure pushes off the northern New England coast this
evening with high pressure building in tonight. The high shifts
south of the area Tuesday followed by a warm front Tuesday
night. A cold front approaches the region on Wednesday, moving
through into Thursday morning. High pressure then returns from
the Great lakes Thursday into Friday, before sliding offshore
this weekend as a frontal system approaches from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few spotty light rain showers have been noted on radar and
surface obs in parts of southern Connecticut and the lower
Hudson Valley as of 22Z. This activity will weaken and dissipate
into early evening as the trough axis shifts east and daytime
heating comes to an end. Otherwise, a dry night ahead with
lightening winds as low pressure near the Maine coast exits and
high pressure over the Midwest builds closer. Forecast remains
on track and previous discussion follows.
Upper trough and shortwave energy will pass offshore tonight.
This will allow the low pressure near Maine to push further
east. Cyclonic flow aloft will continue to lead to scattered to
broken stratocu/altocu through early this evening. W-WNW gusts
will continue 25-35 mph, with some occasional gusts up to 40 mph
possible. Winds should begin weakening after sunset, but may
remain gusty near the coast. The pressure gradient will relax
further early Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in from
the west.
Clouds will slowly clear tonight with lows falling into the lower
60s inland and middle and upper 60s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave ridging builds over the northeast on Tuesday with the
core of the surface high settling over the southeast. This will
allow the flow to become W-SW through the day. Most of the area
will see highs in the middle to upper 80s, but the usual warmer
NE NJ and NYC metro will observe highs around 90 degrees. Dew
points will remain in the 50s with potential for readings to mix
into the low 50s in the usual warmer spots. While actual air
temperatures may touch the low 90s in the NYC metro, the low
humidity will make it feel a few degrees lower in the upper 80s.
The ridge flattens as it moves offshore Tuesday evening. The
next shortwave will begin amplifying over the Lakes Tuesday
night as it begins to approach. A warm front should begin
lifting towards the area, but there is no appreciable support
aloft and have left the forecast dry through day break
Wednesday. Nighttime temperatures will be milder with lows in
the upper 60s and low 70s with middle 70s in the NYC metro.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:
* Showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front
late Wednesday could become strong to severe and produce
locally heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and hail.
* Heat indices may approach 100 degrees in the NYC metro and
northeast NJ. Cooler, drier conditions return Thursday and Friday.
No significant changes in the long term with this update. Global
guidance continues to remain in fair agreement and the National
Blend of Models was followed closely.
An amplifying northern stream upper trough moves through the
Great Lakes and northeast Wednesday through Thursday with a
surface low tracking across southeastern Canada. Deep southwest
flow ahead of the system`s cold front will bring a warm and
humid air mass into the region Wednesday. Precipitable water
values approach 2 inches and strong upper lift with CAPE over
1000 J/kg in the afternoon should allow convective development
by late Wednesday into Wednesday night. SPC currently has a
slight risk outlined for portions of the lower Hudson Valley,
with the rest of the region in marginal. The greatest threat
from any stronger thunderstorm would likely be damaging wind
gusts, but large hail and locally heavy rainfall leading to
minor flooding is also a threat into Wednesday night.
In addition to the convective threat, temperatures ahead of the
front on Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 90s across much
of the region away from marine influence. Coupled with the
increasing moisture, heat indices may approach 100 in the
hottest areas, and this may necessitate a heat advisory if these
values hold, particularly in NE NJ and parts of the NYC metro.
Will continue to monitor trends, but this would be short-lived,
as high pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring a
return to a more tolerable air mass as dew points drop into the
50s.
Another frontal system approaches Saturday with a warm front
moving north, with increased humidity, likely bringing a return
of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west through tonight and
remain through Tuesday.
VFR.
Gusty W/NW winds expected through early this evening. Gusts
25-35 kt are likely, and there may be occasional gusts as high
as 40 kt. Winds and gusts diminish after sunset, with the gusts
ending late tonight. Winds then remain around 10 kt overnight
and into Tuesday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts this afternoon, mainly late afternoon, may be
as high as 35 kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the late afternoon, and likely at night, with MVFR or lower
possible. SW wind 15-20 kt G20-25 kt near the coast.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers,
then VFR.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday:VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Hoisted a short fuse Gale Warning for the NY Harbor where
frequent gusts to 35 kt have been noted on mesonet observations
late this afternoon. This warning is in place until 00Z Tue,
with a period of 25 kt gusts likely to follow through the first
half of tonight before conditions improve.
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all other waters
where gusts 25 to 30 kt persist through this evening as high
pressure begins building towards the waters. Should begin to see
the non ocean waters fall below 25 kt this evening and ocean
waters more likely overnight. Ocean seas subside tonight and
should fall below 5 ft by day break Tuesday. Conditions will
then remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night with high
pressure in control.
Gusty southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front
Wednesday will likely result in SCA conditions on the ocean
waters, and possible on the south shore bays, Long Island
Sound, and eastern Long Island bays as well. Ocean seas also
build to 5 to 7 ft during this time. Winds begin to subside as
the cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday, but
ocean sea remain elevated into Thursday near 5 ft. Winds and
seas then remain below advisory levels on all the forecast
waters Thursday night through Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through Tuesday night.
Showers and thunderstorms develop late Wednesday afternoon and
evening ahead of an approaching cold front and could produce locally
heavy downpours that lead to minor flooding, particularly in urban
and poor drainage areas. The risk of flash flooding appears
localized at this time, but cannot be entirely ruled out given a
moist environment.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is in place for all local Atlantic
facing beach on Tuesday with low surf and offshore winds. Increasing
southwest winds and seas will result in a high risk of rip current
development on Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
340-345.
Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...20
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR