281
FXUS61 KOKX 271724
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
124 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build across through Friday. A warm
front will lift north on Saturday, followed by a cold front on
Sunday. High pressure will then return on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Dry as high pressure builds east. Seeing some sct-bkn Cu
development across NYC and much of the interior mainly NW of NYC
that should last through the afternoon. Should also see
development along the sea breeze across Long Island this
afternoon.
High temps this afternoon will be in the 80s today. Lows tonight
fall to the mid 50s to mid 60s under clear skies, with northerly
flow 5-10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region through much of Friday,
before starting to shift east to the New England coast late
Friday into Friday night. This will result in abundant
sunshine with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80, and
dewpoints in the 40s. Temperatures Friday night will once again
fall to the mid 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will pass off the New England Coast Friday night,
allowing a warm front to lift through on Saturday. An
unsettled but very warm period will set up for Saturday night
and Sunday as a prefrontal trough and cold front move through,
bringing showers/tstms. The heat index may approach or surpass
95, mainly in NE NJ and perhaps also in NYC and along the
north shore of Long Island, with temps approaching 90 and
dewpoints in the lower 70s, but it is possible that limited
daytime heating and/or better vertical mixing could lead to
cooler temps and/or lower dewpoints so this remains uncertain,
and at any rate would last for only one day.
With the exception of Sunday, and possibly next Wednesday ahead
of another cold front when temps will again be on the rise,
temps should be close to normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds slowly eastward today and tonight, and
moves overhead around Friday morning.
Stratus has now moved offshore with the exiting cold front.
Scattered cumulus has developed the region from the northwest at
4,000 ft. Otherwise, VFR through the forecast period.
WNW winds increase this afternoon 10-15 kt and gust to around
18-20 kt. Winds become N this evening and diminish to 5 to 10
kt. Winds may sea breeze at most coastal terminals tomorrow.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There may be an afternoon sea breeze at KJFK, currently a tempo
in place 21Z to 24Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the afternoon, becoming likely at night with MVFR.
Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms likely, MVFR likely, IFR possible.
Monday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
There is the potential for SCA cond mainly on the ocean from
Sat night into Sunday as SW flow increases, with gusts up to 25
kt and significant wave heights above 5 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns today through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches today.
The rip current risk should lower to moderate on Friday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...