792
FXUS61 KOKX 011149
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
749 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slowly building from the Great Lakes region today
will then remain in control through Wednesday. A warm front will
lift north of the area Wednesday night, followed by a cold front
late in the week which may remain nearby into the first half
of next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track early this morning. Quite a difference in
sensible weather to begin July 2024 compared to how June 2024
ended. Dew points have fallen into the 50s making it feel much
more comfortable. The subtropical moisture from Sunday has
pushed offshore along with the associated cold front. The
trailing upper level trough will pass across New England through
the afternoon. This will slow the progression of high pressure
over the Great Lakes, leaving behind a modest pressure gradient
over the region. N winds will likely gust 20-25 mph and there
could be a few gusts close to 30 mph near the coast. Highs today
will likely remain below normal for July 1 with readings in the
upper 70s inland and around 80 closer to the coast.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate moisture between
5 to 7 kft. The moisture in combination with the trough passage
should lead to some scattered cloud development, which could
become broken (mostly cloudy) across southeast CT and
potentially the east end of Long Island. Weak instability
associated with the colder air aloft within the trough could
develop a few showers across southeast CT and east end of Long
Island, mainly in the afternoon. Do not think the instability
is deep enough for lightning, so have left thunder out. Have
limited PoP to slight chance given the overall drier boundary
layer air.
Heights aloft begin rising tonight behind the trough passage as
ridging builds towards the area. The pressure gradient will
relax as the surface high reaches the northeast by day break
Tuesday. A cool and mostly clear night is in store for tonight.
Lows will fall to the mid/upper 50s inland and Long Island Pine
Barrens, and the lower 60s closer to the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging will remain in control both aloft and at the surface
Tuesday into Wednesday. The surface high begins to shift
offshore by Wednesday afternoon and evening with the ridge axis
overhead. A shortwave will be traversing across southeast Canada
which send a frontal system towards the northeast. The
associated warm front lift well north of the area Wednesday
night. The models continue to indicate relatively flat heights
along with a close proximity of the ridge axis. Have generally
followed NBM PoPs, but capped them off at slight chance well
north and west of the NYC metro late Wednesday night.
Highs on Tuesday will return to seasonable levels in the
lower and middle 80s. Dew points may actually end up a bit
lower compared to Monday. There should be enough mixing in the
afternoon to lower dew points into the lower to middle 50s. Have
gone closer to MOS dew points as the NBM can be a bit high in
these scenarios. Temperatures on Wednesday should be similar to
Tuesday with a slight increase in dew points as return flow
begins to develop.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow aloft will start the period, with an
embedded transient shortwave moving across Thu night-Fri
morning. As the flow aloft amplifies, with an upper ridge
building over the Southeast and an upper trough traversing the
northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, deep layer WAA will take
place, with warming temps and rising humidity especially for Sat
after a warm fropa. The heat index may flirt with 95 in the
urban corridor Fri-Sunday, but be solidly in the mid/upper 90s
from NYC metro north/west for Sat. Expect chance showers/tstms
with the warm fropa late day Fri into Fri night, then again Sat
afternoon/eve with an approaching cold front. The front may
linger over the area on Sunday with slight chance PoP in the
afternoon/evening.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure builds in. NNW-N winds 15G20-25kt much of
the day should diminish during the late afternoon and early
evening, to less than 10 kt by late evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: VFR for much of the day. Then MVFR or lower cond
possible with any late day or nighttime showers/tstms.
Friday: MVFR or lower cond possible with chance of showers/tstms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure builds with slowly subsiding seas and conditions
largely below SCA levels. There could be some nearshore gusts around
25 kt, especially near the NY Harbor and nearshore along the
Brooklyn, Queens, and Nassau coast. However, winds should be
weaker further away from the immediate shoreline. The pressure
gradient relaxes tonight and will remain weak through Tuesday
night. A southerly flow develops on Wednesday and winds in the
NY Bight area could gust 20-25 kt Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels into
Wednesday night.
Quiet from Thu through Fri night. Ocean seas may build close to 4 ft
out east in response to longer fetch SW flow increasing to 15
kt.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological impacts are expected through Wednesday Night.
It remains too early to determine the risk of any hydrological
impacts from a passing frontal system Thu night-Fri and a warm
frontal passage Fri night-Sat.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk at ocean beaches through
this evening due to a lingering S to SE swell. The swells
subside on Tuesday and have gone close to the RCMOS which
indicates a low rip current risk.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...